Owens-Illinois
OI
$9.39
+11.12%
O-I Glass, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of glass containers, serving the packaging and containers industry with products primarily used for beer, wine, soda, spirits, condiments, and food. As one of the largest glass container producers globally, the company operates through Americas and Europe segments, holding a strong market position due to its scale and established customer relationships. The current investor narrative centers on the company's turnaround efforts amid declining revenues and persistent net losses, with attention on cost restructuring, debt management, and the potential for margin recovery as end markets stabilize.…
OI
Owens-Illinois
$9.39
OI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Owens-Illinois's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.89 and implied upside of +37.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.89
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+37.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$10 - $15
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only 2 analysts cover the stock, with no consensus price targets or EPS estimates provided. The limited coverage implies OI is a small-cap or mid-cap stock with lower institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available ratings show a mix: RBC Capital rates it Outperform, Citigroup Neutral, Wells Fargo Overweight (upgraded from Equal Weight in May 2026), and Truist Securities Buy. This suggests a cautiously optimistic sentiment among covering analysts, but the lack of a formal consensus target makes it difficult to gauge upside. The wide range of ratings (from Neutral to Buy) indicates uncertainty, and investors should rely on fundamental analysis rather than analyst consensus.
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Bulls vs Bears: OI Investment Factors
O-I Glass presents a classic value trap versus turnaround debate. The bull case rests on deeply discounted valuation (PS 0.35x) and forward PE of 4.99x implying profit recovery, supported by cautious analyst optimism. However, the bear case is compelling with persistent revenue declines, negative net income, high leverage (D/E 3.86), and negative free cash flow. The single most important tension is whether the company can reverse its margin compression and return to profitability; if it does, the stock could re-rate significantly, but if losses persist, the low valuation may prove justified. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the deteriorating fundamentals, but the low valuation limits downside risk.
Bullish
- Deeply Discounted Valuation: The trailing PS ratio of 0.35x is near the bottom of its 5-year range (0.35x-1.92x), implying the market prices in significant pessimism. This low multiple could provide a margin of safety if fundamentals stabilize, as the stock trades at a fraction of sales.
- Forward PE Suggests Profit Recovery: Despite negative trailing EPS, the forward PE of 4.99x indicates analysts expect a return to profitability. If earnings materialize, the stock could re-rate higher, offering substantial upside from current levels.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Covering analysts are cautiously optimistic, with RBC Capital at Outperform, Wells Fargo at Overweight, and Truist at Buy. This suggests that those closest to the company see potential for a turnaround.
- Low Beta Provides Downside Protection: With a beta of 0.625, OI is less volatile than the market, which may limit losses during broad sell-offs. This characteristic appeals to risk-averse value investors.
Bearish
- Persistent Revenue Decline: Revenue has contracted for multiple quarters, with Q1 2026 down 1.72% YoY to $1.54B. The trailing trend shows deceleration from $1.73B in Q2 2024, indicating end-market weakness or market share loss.
- Negative Net Income and Margins: The company reported a net loss of $73M in Q1 2026, with a net margin of -4.74%. Gross margin compressed to 12.92% from 17.53% in Q2 2024, reflecting cost pressures and pricing challenges.
- High Debt Burden: Debt-to-equity of 3.86x and total debt to capitalization of 79.5% indicate significant leverage. Interest expenses of $79M in Q1 2026 weigh heavily on earnings, consuming most of operating income.
- Negative Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow was -$436M in Q1 2026, a sharp reversal from positive $309M in Q4 2025. This deterioration raises concerns about liquidity and the company's ability to service debt without external financing.
OI Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -34.93% and currently trading at $9.39, which is 55.5% of its 52-week range ($7.75-$16.91). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the market is pricing in significant headwinds, though it could also indicate a potential value opportunity if fundamentals improve. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 56.25% over the past year, reflecting severe relative weakness. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month change is +4.45%, while the 3-month change is -9.80%, indicating a recent bounce from lows but still negative over the quarter. This divergence from the longer-term downtrend could signal a temporary pullback or early reversal attempt, but the 6-month decline of -39.03% underscores persistent selling pressure. The stock's beta of 0.625 implies it is less volatile than the market, which may provide some downside protection but also limits upside participation in rallies. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $7.75, a break below which would signal further deterioration, while resistance at the 52-week high of $16.91 represents a 80% upside. A breakout above resistance would require a fundamental catalyst, while a breakdown below support could accelerate losses.
Beta
0.63
0.63x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-52.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$17
Price range past year
Annual Return
-34.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.4% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -9.8% | +6.3% |
| 6m | -39.0% | +9.1% |
| 1y | -34.9% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -38.1% | +10.7% |
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OI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been declining, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.54 billion down 1.72% year-over-year, and the trailing trend shows a deceleration from $1.73 billion in Q2 2024. The company's revenue segments are dominated by alcoholic beverages ($929 million), followed by food and other ($357 million) and nonalcoholic beverages ($240 million), indicating reliance on beer and spirits markets. The persistent revenue contraction suggests end-market weakness or market share loss, which is a key concern for the investment case. Profitability remains challenged, with Q1 2026 net income of -$73 million and a gross margin of 12.92%, down from 17.53% in Q2 2024. The net margin was -4.74%, and the company has reported negative EPS in four of the last five quarters, with the most recent EPS at -$0.48. While operating margin was 5.91%, interest expenses of $79 million weigh heavily on the bottom line. The trajectory shows margins compressing, though the company has generated positive EBITDA of $145 million in Q1 2026. The balance sheet carries significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.86 and total debt to capitalization of 79.5%. Free cash flow was -$436 million in Q1 2026, a sharp deterioration from positive $309 million in Q4 2025, driven by working capital outflows. The current ratio of 1.25 provides some liquidity, but the high debt burden and negative free cash flow raise financial risk. ROE is -9.97%, reflecting shareholder value destruction.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$38000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OI Overvalued?
Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 0.35x, while the forward PE is 4.99x (based on positive expected earnings). The gap between negative trailing PE and positive forward PE implies the market expects a return to profitability, which is a critical assumption. Compared to the industry average (packaging & containers), OI's PS of 0.35x appears deeply discounted, but this reflects its unprofitable status and declining revenues. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.33x provides a more normalized view, though it is elevated relative to historical levels. Historically, the stock's PS ratio has ranged from 0.35x to 1.92x over the past five years, with the current level near the bottom of that range. This suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, but also implies limited downside if fundamentals stabilize. The PB ratio of 1.75x is below the historical average of around 2.0x, further indicating a discounted valuation. However, the low valuation is justified by the company's weak profitability and high leverage, making it a potential value trap if the turnaround fails.
PE
-17.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~17x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: OI's high debt-to-equity of 3.86 and debt-to-capitalization of 79.5% create significant financial risk. Interest expenses of $79M in Q1 2026 consumed 87% of operating income, leaving little buffer for earnings deterioration. The negative free cash flow of -$436M in Q1 2026, compared to positive $309M in Q4 2025, signals worsening liquidity and potential covenant breaches. Revenue concentration in alcoholic beverages (60% of sales) exposes the company to shifts in consumer preferences and regulatory changes in alcohol markets. The gross margin decline from 17.53% in Q2 2024 to 12.92% in Q1 2026 indicates operational inefficiencies and pricing pressure that may persist.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's PS ratio of 0.35x, while low, reflects the market's skepticism about a turnaround. If the company fails to return to profitability, the valuation could compress further, especially if peers maintain healthier margins. The packaging industry faces headwinds from alternative materials (plastic, aluminum) and customer consolidation, which could erode OI's market share. With a beta of 0.625, the stock is less correlated to the market, but its 1-year relative strength of -56.25% versus the S&P 500 shows severe underperformance that may continue if macro conditions weaken. Limited analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) means less price discovery and potential for sharp moves on news.
Worst-Case Scenario: If revenue continues to decline, margins fail to recover, and debt servicing becomes unsustainable, OI could face a liquidity crisis or restructuring. The realistic downside is to the 52-week low of $7.75, representing a -17.5% decline from the current price of $9.39. In a severe recession with further demand destruction, the stock could test historical lows, potentially falling to $5.00 (a -47% loss), based on the maximum drawdown of -52.44% from the 52-week high.
