Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PARR
$82.07
+2.18%
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company operating primarily in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector, with a focus on the Pacific region including Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho. The company operates through three reportable segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics, with the Refining segment generating the majority of revenue by producing ultra-low-sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, and other refined products. As a mid-cap player with a market capitalization of approximately $4.3 billion, Par Pacific distinguishes itself through its strategic positioning in niche Pacific markets and its integrated logistics network. The current investor narrative centers on the company's exceptional performance amid geopolitical tensions and refining capacity constraints, which have driven record crack spreads and a surge in refining margins, as highlighted by recent news of gasoline prices spiking and diesel achieving record monthly gains. This has led to a dramatic re-rating of the stock, with shares up over 180% in the past year, as investors debate the sustainability of these windfall profits and the company's ability to capitalize on the favorable macro environment.…
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$82.07
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PARR Today?
Based on the analysis, PARR is rated a 'Buy' with a thesis that the current earnings power is undervalued, and the stock has upside to the average analyst target of $84.14. The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a mean score of 1.57, and the average target implies 4.76% upside, while the high target offers 18.3%.
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PARR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish given the strong earnings momentum and undervaluation on a trailing basis. However, the medium confidence reflects the cyclicality of refining margins and the potential for a sharp reversal. The stock's low PE suggests the market is pricing in a downturn, but if margins persist, there is significant upside. Key developments to watch include quarterly earnings, crack spread trends, and geopolitical events. An upgrade to high confidence would occur if revenue growth turns positive and forward PE remains below 6x. A downgrade to bearish would be warranted if margins compress for two consecutive quarters.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $83.29 and implied upside of +1.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$83.29
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+1.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$65 - $95
Analyst target range
Par Pacific has coverage from 7 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.57 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $84.14, implying an upside of 4.76% from the current price of $80.32. The distribution includes 4 analysts with 'Overweight' or 'Outperform' ratings and 3 with 'Neutral' ratings, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. The target price range spans from a low of $65.00 to a high of $95.00, with the high target suggesting potential upside of 18.3% and the low target implying a downside of 19.1%. The wide spread reflects uncertainty about the sustainability of refining margins, with the low target likely pricing in a normalization of crack spreads and the high target assuming continued geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Recent ratings actions have been stable, with no upgrades or downgrades in the past few months, indicating that analysts are maintaining their positions as the stock has rallied.
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Bulls vs Bears: PARR Investment Factors
Par Pacific presents a classic cyclical value opportunity, with exceptional current earnings driven by record refining margins. The bull case is compelling: a sub-5x trailing PE, massive margin expansion, and strong cash flow generation. However, the bear case highlights the inherent cyclicality of refining, with revenue already declining and forward earnings expectations pointing to a downturn. The most important tension is the sustainability of crack spreads: if geopolitical tensions persist and supply remains constrained, the stock could re-rate higher; if margins normalize, earnings could collapse, justifying the low multiple. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the momentum and analyst support, but the risk of a sharp reversal is significant.
Bullish
- Exceptional earnings turnaround: Q4 2025 net income swung to $77.7 million from a -$55.7 million loss in Q4 2024, with EPS of $1.53 versus -$1.01. This dramatic improvement underscores the company's operational leverage to favorable refining conditions.
- Massive margin expansion: Gross margin surged to 21.03% in Q4 2025 from 6.50% a year earlier, reflecting record crack spreads. This expansion drove operating income to $99.3 million from a loss of $47.0 million, showcasing the earnings power of the current environment.
- Strong free cash flow generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow stands at $323.2 million, providing ample capacity for debt reduction, buybacks, or growth investments. Q4 operating cash flow of $200.2 million further demonstrates robust cash generation.
- Undervalued on earnings basis: With a trailing PE of 4.83x and forward PE of 6.07x, the stock trades at a significant discount to the typical refining sector multiple of 8-10x. EV/EBITDA of 4.05x also suggests the market is pricing in a sharp earnings decline.
Bearish
- Revenue declining year-over-year: Q4 2025 revenue fell 1.04% YoY to $1.813 billion from $1.832 billion, indicating that volume or pricing gains are not fully offsetting lower throughput. This could signal demand softness or operational challenges.
- Earnings expected to decline: The forward PE (6.07x) is higher than the trailing PE (4.83x), implying the market expects EPS to fall. This is unusual in a windfall environment and suggests analysts anticipate margin normalization.
- High volatility and drawdown risk: The stock's 52-week range is $27.84 to $87.03, and it recently experienced a max drawdown of -26.73%. Such volatility can be unsettling for investors and may indicate speculative trading.
- Cyclicality of refining margins: Refining margins are highly cyclical and currently elevated due to geopolitical tensions. Historical PE has ranged from 0.91x to over 30x, showing how quickly earnings can swing. A normalization of crack spreads could severely impact profitability.
PARR Technical Analysis
Par Pacific's stock is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +184.62%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.37% over the same period. The current price of $80.32 sits at 92.3% of its 52-week range (between $27.84 and $87.03), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which reflects strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 6-month price change of +87.40% underscores the acceleration of the uptrend, and the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 is exceptional, with a 1-year relative strength of +164.25%. This positioning near the upper end of the range suggests that while the trend is robust, investors should be cautious of short-term pullbacks given the extended nature of the move.
Beta
0.79
0.79x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$28-$87
Price range past year
Annual Return
+182.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PARR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.6% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +33.2% | +5.3% |
| 6m | +94.3% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +182.9% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +129.1% | +13.3% |
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PARR Fundamental Analysis
Par Pacific's revenue trajectory has been volatile but recently showed a slight decline, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.813 billion, down 1.04% year-over-year from $1.832 billion in Q4 2024. However, the company's profitability has improved dramatically, with Q4 2025 net income of $77.7 million versus a net loss of $55.7 million in the prior year quarter, and EPS of $1.53 compared to -$1.01. Gross margin expanded to 21.03% in Q4 2025 from 6.50% in Q4 2024, reflecting the favorable refining environment. The company's trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $323.16 million, and it has a current ratio of 1.60, indicating adequate liquidity. Debt-to-equity stands at 0.81, which is manageable, and the company generated $200.2 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong cash generation to fund operations and growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$323161000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PARR Overvalued?
Given that Par Pacific has positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 4.83x, while the forward PE is 6.07x, indicating that the market expects earnings to decline slightly, which is unusual given the current windfall environment. The stock's PS ratio is 0.24x, which is very low, and its EV/EBITDA is 4.05x, suggesting the stock is undervalued on an earnings basis. Compared to the industry average, Par Pacific's PE is significantly lower than the typical refining sector multiple, which often trades at 8-10x earnings, representing a substantial discount. This discount may reflect concerns about the cyclicality of refining margins and the sustainability of current profit levels. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from as low as 0.91x in Q3 2022 to over 30x in Q4 2021, and the current 4.83x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in a potential earnings downturn.
PE
4.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~19x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include the company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, which, while manageable, could become problematic if earnings decline. The company's reliance on refining margins makes it vulnerable to a sudden drop in crack spreads, as evidenced by the Q1 2025 loss of $30.4 million when margins were weaker. Additionally, revenue concentration in the refining segment (majority of revenue) exposes the company to regional supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes in the Pacific markets. The negative PEG ratio (-0.0036) suggests that earnings growth is expected to be negative, which could lead to a de-rating if the market loses confidence in the sustainability of current profits.