PJT Partners
PJT
$136.22
-0.72%
PJT Partners Inc. is an advisory-focused investment bank providing strategic advisory, capital markets advisory, restructuring and special situations, shareholder advisory, and private fund placement and fundraising services to corporations, financial sponsors, institutional investors, and governments, with the bulk of revenue generated in the United States. The firm occupies a distinct niche as a boutique, partner-owned advisory house built around senior-banker relationships and restructuring/private-capital expertise, competing with bulge-bracket banks and other independents rather than acting as a balance-sheet lender or trading platform. The current investor narrative centers on whether PJT can sustain the strong advisory and restructuring fee momentum that drove record revenue in the June 2026 quarter, even as the stock has de-rated sharply amid a broad pullback in capital-markets-sensitive financials. Debate is split between bulls who see a cash-generative, asset-light franchise trading at a compressed forward multiple and skeptics worried about the cyclicality of restructuring fees, compensation inflation, and the stock's persistent relative underperformance versus the S&P 500.…
PJT
PJT Partners
$136.22
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy PJT Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that PJT is a high-quality, asset-light advisory franchise with strong revenue growth (19.52% YoY) and solid margins (21% operating), but the stock is in a severe downtrend and the advisory cycle may be peaking, creating uncertainty. The analyst consensus is Hold with an average target of $161.11, implying 17.4% upside, but the neutral stance and thin coverage suggest limited conviction.
Supporting evidence: The forward PE of 15.78x is well below the trailing PE of 23.89x, implying expected EPS growth, and the PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the growth is inexpensive. Revenue grew 19.52% YoY in Q2 2026, operating margin expanded to 21.00% from 20.07%, and trailing free cash flow of $661.83 million provides ample capital for buybacks and dividends. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.51x is near multi-year lows, and the EV/EBITDA of 10.60x is not demanding for a business with 21% margins. The analyst low target of $142.00 is above the current price, indicating limited downside according to the most bearish analyst.
Risks and conditions: The biggest risks are a cyclical downturn in advisory fees, compensation inflation, and continued relative underperformance. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $150 and revenue growth remains above 15%, or if the forward PE falls below 12x with no deterioration in fundamentals. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if operating margins fall below 18%. Valuation verdict: The stock appears undervalued relative to its growth and margin profile, but the market is pricing in cyclical risk, so it is fairly valued until there is evidence of a cycle turn.
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PJT 12-Month Price Forecast
The stock is at a crossroads: fundamentally, revenue growth and margins are strong, and the forward valuation is attractive, but the technical trend is decisively negative and the market is pricing in cyclical risk. The analyst consensus is neutral, with a Hold rating and a target that implies upside but lacks conviction. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $150 and revenue growth remains above 15%, or if the forward PE falls below 12x with no deterioration in fundamentals. I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if operating margins fall below 18%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PJT Partners's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $161.11 and implied upside of +18.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$161.11
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$142 - $180
Analyst target range
Coverage is thin, with only 5 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is a Hold (mean rating of 2.71 on a scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price of $161.11 implies roughly 17.4% upside from the current $137.21, but that headline number masks a cautious stance: the consensus is neutral-to-hold, and the institutional ratings history shows a pattern of reiterations rather than upgrades, with KBW and BMO maintaining Outperform while UBS and Goldman Sachs have stayed Neutral through 2026. The bullish outliers are offset by the neutral majority, so the signal is best characterized as a value-oriented Hold with modest upside rather than a conviction Buy.
The target range of $142.00 to $180.00 is moderately wide (about 27% from low to high), signaling meaningful dispersion in views. The high target of $180.00 implies roughly 31.2% upside and would require either multiple expansion toward the historical mid-range or evidence that the 19.52% revenue growth and 21% operating margins are sustainable through the cycle; the low target of $142.00 implies only 3.5% upside and effectively prices in flat-to-declining advisory activity and margin pressure. Notably, the low target sits above the current price, meaning even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside from here, which is a modestly supportive signal; however, with only 5 analysts and a Hold consensus, price discovery is less efficient and the stock is more susceptible to volatility around deal-activity headlines and quarterly earnings.
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Bulls vs Bears: PJT Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence given the stock's severe relative underperformance (-37.00 percentage points vs. SPY over one year) and its position near the 52-week low, which reflects a market skeptical of the sustainability of advisory fee momentum. However, the bull case is supported by accelerating revenue growth (19.52% YoY), a compressed forward PE of 15.78x, and a solid 21% operating margin, suggesting the de-rating may be overdone. The single most important tension is whether the current advisory and restructuring cycle can sustain the 19.5% revenue growth or whether it is peaking, which would justify the low multiple. If growth holds, the stock could re-rate sharply; if it decelerates, the low multiple could prove a value trap.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating at 19.5% YoY: Q2 2026 revenue of $486.29 million grew 19.52% from $406.88 million in Q2 2025, and the sequential progression from $418.20 million in Q1 2026 shows momentum. This growth is driven by advisory fees of $473.87 million, which dominate the revenue mix and reflect strong M&A and restructuring activity.
- Forward PE of 15.8x implies earnings growth: The stock trades at 23.89x trailing earnings but only 15.78x forward earnings, a 34% compression that signals the market expects significant EPS growth. Consensus estimated EPS of $11.09 versus trailing EPS of $5.74 (implied) supports this, and the PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests growth is being acquired at a discount.
- Solid operating margin at 21%: Q2 2026 operating income of $102.14 million equates to a 21.00% operating margin, up from 20.07% a year earlier. Trailing operating margin of 21.17% and net margin of 10.51% are respectable for a boutique advisory firm, and the 58.43% ROE reflects the asset-light, high-payout partnership structure.
- Strong balance sheet with 27.7 current ratio: The current ratio of 27.67 and quick ratio of 27.67 indicate extraordinary liquidity, with $235.54 million in cash. Trailing free cash flow of $661.83 million against a $4.30 billion market cap implies a very high FCF yield, though quarterly FCF is seasonal.
Bearish
- Severe relative underperformance vs. S&P 500: PJT is down 21.47% over the past year while SPY gained 15.53%, a relative-strength gap of -37.00 percentage points. The stock is down 10.09% over the past month and 17.65% over three months, with negative relative strength across all timeframes, indicating persistent selling pressure.
- Trading near 52-week low with falling-knife setup: At $137.21, the stock sits at roughly 14.0% of its 52-week range of $127.73 to $195.62, only 7.4% above the 52-week low. The maximum drawdown of -32.58% underscores the severity of the de-rating, and a breakdown below $127.73 could trigger further momentum-driven selling.
- Revenue concentration in cyclical advisory fees: Advisory fees of $473.87 million account for 97.4% of Q2 2026 revenue, making the franchise highly sensitive to M&A, restructuring, and private-capital fundraising cycles. Any slowdown in deal activity or sponsor fundraising could sharply impact revenue and earnings.
- Compensation inflation risk: As a partnership, PJT's compensation costs are a major expense, and the reported gross margin of 99.11% reflects pass-through compensation. Operating margin has ranged from 19% to 24% over recent quarters, and any uptick in compensation ratios could compress margins and earnings.
PJT Technical Analysis
PJT is in a clear intermediate downtrend, with the shares down 21.47% over the past year versus a 15.53% gain for SPY, a relative-strength gap of -37.00 percentage points. At $137.21, the stock sits at roughly 14.0% of its 52-week range of $127.73 to $195.62, meaning it is trading near the bottom of that band and only about 7.4% above the 52-week low. That positioning signals a falling-knife setup rather than a value entry: the stock has surrendered the entire rally that carried it to $195.62 and is now probing the lower boundary of its range, with the maximum drawdown of -32.58% underscoring how severe the de-rating has been.
Short-term momentum is decisively negative and accelerating to the downside: the stock is down 10.09% over the past month and 17.65% over three months, both far worse than the 1-year decline, indicating the selling pressure has intensified rather than stabilized. Relative strength is negative across every horizon (-11.31 over 1 month, -20.34 over 3 months, -21.46 over 6 months, -31.00 YTD), confirming the stock is losing ground to the market on all timeframes rather than merely consolidating. The lone positive is the most recent session, with a +0.80% bounce off the prior close of $136.12 on volume of roughly 525,033 shares, but a single up-day after a 10% monthly decline is insufficient to signal a trend reversal; RSI data is not available, but the price action is consistent with an oversold condition that has yet to produce a durable bottom.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $127.73, roughly 6.9% below the current price, while resistance is the 52-week high of $195.62, about 42.6% above. A breakdown below $127.73 would confirm the downtrend and likely trigger further momentum-driven selling, whereas a reclaim of the $150-$155 area (the September consolidation zone) would be the first evidence of a base forming. The stock's beta of 0.876 implies it is about 12.4% less volatile than the market, which is unusual for a name in such a steep drawdown and suggests the decline is driven by company- and sector-specific factors rather than broad market beta; for position sizing, the relatively low beta offers some cushion, but the -32.58% max drawdown shows that idiosyncratic risk remains substantial.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$128-$196
Price range past year
Annual Return
-23.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PJT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.1% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -18.4% | +2.4% |
| 6m | -12.9% | +7.8% |
| 1y | -23.1% | +15.4% |
| ytd | -19.7% | +12.4% |
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PJT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue momentum is strong and accelerating: Q2 2026 revenue of $486.29 million grew 19.52% year over year from $406.88 million in Q2 2025, and the sequential progression from $418.20 million in Q1 2026 and $535.16 million in Q4 2025 shows a business running at a roughly $1.9-$2.0 billion annualized pace. Advisory fees of $473.87 million dominate the mix, with placement fees of $53.16 million and interest/other income of $8.14 million, meaning the franchise is overwhelmingly levered to M&A, restructuring, and private-capital fundraising activity. The trend is constructive, but the concentration in cyclical advisory fees means the growth trajectory is highly sensitive to deal activity and sponsor fundraising conditions, which is the central risk to the investment case.
Profitability is solid and improving: Q2 2026 net income of $45.83 million on $486.29 million of revenue produced a 9.43% net margin, up from 8.09% in Q2 2025, while operating income of $102.14 million equates to a 21.00% operating margin versus 20.07% a year earlier. The reported gross margin of 99.11% reflects the pass-through nature of compensation costs in an advisory model, so the more meaningful profitability gauge is the operating margin, which has held in the 19%-24% range over the past several quarters. Trailing net margin of 10.51% and operating margin of 21.17% are respectable for a boutique advisory firm, and the 58.43% ROE reflects the asset-light, high-payout partnership structure rather than leverage-driven returns.
Balance-sheet and cash-flow metrics are a mixed picture: the current ratio of 27.67 and quick ratio of 27.67 signal extraordinary near-term liquidity, and trailing free cash flow of $661.83 million against a $4.30 billion market cap implies a very high FCF yield, though the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34 and total-debt-to-capitalization of 57.3% reflect the firm's partnership-related liabilities. Operating cash flow of $236.96 million in Q2 2026 comfortably funded $10.58 million of capex and $53.57 million of buybacks, and the $235.54 million cash balance provides ample cushion. The key caveat is that quarterly FCF is highly seasonal and working-capital-driven (Q1 2025 FCF was -$77.92 million), so the TTM figure overstates run-rate cash generation; nonetheless, the firm is self-funding and returning capital via buybacks and a modest 0.57% dividend yield.
Quarterly Revenue
$486290000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
99.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$661825000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PJT Overvalued?
Because PJT is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $45.83 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 23.89x trailing earnings but only 15.78x forward earnings, a roughly 34% compression that implies the market expects meaningful EPS growth; the forward PE is corroborated by consensus estimated EPS of $11.09 versus the trailing figure, and the PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the growth is being acquired at a discount to the earnings multiple. The gap between trailing and forward multiples is the single most important valuation signal here: it says the market is pricing in earnings expansion even as the share price has fallen.
Against the sector, the picture is more nuanced: a trailing PE of 23.89x and forward PE of 15.78x compare with a price-to-sales of 2.51x, EV/sales of 2.30x, and EV/EBITDA of 10.60x, while the price-to-book of 13.95x is elevated because the partnership carries minimal book equity. The 2.51x sales multiple is modest for an advisory franchise growing revenue at 19.52%, and the 10.60x EV/EBITDA is not demanding for a business with 21% operating margins; the premium P/B is structural rather than a valuation red flag. On balance, PJT screens at a discount to what its growth and margin profile would justify, which is consistent with the market pricing in cyclical risk to advisory fees.
Historically, PJT's PE has ranged from roughly 9.6x (Q1 2026) to 32.5x (Q2 2025), and its PS ratio has ranged from about 5.1x (Q2 2023) to 10.8x (Q1 2025); the current 23.89x PE and 2.51x PS sit in the lower half of those bands, with the PS multiple near multi-year lows. That positioning suggests the market is pricing in pessimistic expectations rather than optimism, which creates potential for multiple re-rating if advisory activity holds up. The risk is that the low multiple is a value trap reflecting genuine fundamental deterioration in the advisory cycle rather than a temporary dislocation.
PE
23.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 9x~32x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the cyclicality of advisory fees, which comprised 97.4% of Q2 2026 revenue ($473.87 million of $486.29 million). A downturn in M&A or restructuring activity could cause revenue to decline sharply, as seen in the sequential drop from $535.16 million in Q4 2025 to $418.20 million in Q1 2026. Additionally, compensation inflation is a persistent threat; operating margin has fluctuated between 19% and 24% over recent quarters, and any increase in the compensation ratio could compress profitability. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34 and total-debt-to-capitalization of 57.3% reflect partnership-related liabilities, but the current ratio of 27.67 provides ample liquidity. Quarterly free cash flow is highly seasonal (Q1 2025 was -$77.92 million), so the trailing FCF of $661.83 million may overstate run-rate cash generation.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if the stock's forward PE of 15.78x is not supported by earnings growth, and competitive pressure from bulge-bracket banks and other boutique advisory firms. The stock's beta of 0.876 indicates it is less volatile than the market, but the -32.58% max drawdown shows idiosyncratic risk. The shares have underperformed the S&P 500 by 37.00 percentage points over the past year, and negative relative strength across all timeframes suggests persistent sector rotation away from capital-markets-sensitive financials. With only 5 analysts covering the stock, price discovery is less efficient, and negative headlines could exacerbate volatility.
Worst-case scenario: A prolonged downturn in advisory activity, triggered by a recession or a freeze in M&A and restructuring markets, could cause revenue to decline 20-30% from peak levels. If operating margins compress to the low end of the historical range (19%), EPS could fall well below consensus, leading to multiple compression. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $127.73, representing a 6.9% decline from the current price, and if the low is breached, the next support might be the analyst low target of $142.00 (which is above the current price, so not a downside target). A more severe scenario could see the stock fall to the 2025 lows, but the 52-week low is the most relevant reference. From the current $137.21, a drop to $127.73 would be a 6.9% loss, but a deeper correction to the 2024 lows (not provided) could be more severe. The maximum drawdown of -32.58% from the 52-week high of $195.62 implies a trough of $131.85, which is close to the 52-week low.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Cyclicality of advisory fees, which comprised 97.4% of Q2 2026 revenue; a downturn in M&A or restructuring activity could cause revenue to decline sharply, as seen in the sequential drop from $535.16 million in Q4 2025 to $418.20 million in Q1 2026. 2) Compensation inflation, as operating margin has fluctuated between 19% and 24% over recent quarters, and any increase in the compensation ratio could compress profitability. 3) Continued relative underperformance, with the stock down 21.47% over the past year versus a 15.53% gain for SPY, and negative relative strength across all timeframes, which could lead to further de-rating. 4) Thin analyst coverage (only 5 analysts) and a Hold consensus, which increases volatility around earnings and deal-activity headlines. Ranked by severity, cyclicality is the most significant, followed by compensation inflation, then market sentiment and coverage.
Our 12-month forecast has three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $180-$195, assuming revenue growth remains above 15% and multiple expansion toward the historical mid-range; Base case (50% probability) with a target range of $155-$165, assuming moderate revenue growth of 10-15% and stable margins, aligning with the analyst average target of $161.11; Bear case (25% probability) with a target range of $127-$142, assuming a significant slowdown in advisory activity and margin compression, retesting the 52-week low of $127.73. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption that advisory activity normalizes but does not collapse, and the stock stabilizes near the analyst average target. The wide range reflects uncertainty around the advisory cycle and the stock's recent volatility.
PJT appears undervalued relative to its growth and margin profile. The forward PE of 15.78x is below the trailing PE of 23.89x, implying expected EPS growth, and the PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the growth is being acquired at a discount. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.51x is near multi-year lows (historical range of 5.1x to 10.8x), and the EV/EBITDA of 10.60x is not demanding for a business with 21% operating margins. Compared to peers, the valuation is modest, but the market is pricing in cyclical risk to advisory fees. The low multiple implies the market expects a slowdown in advisory activity, which may be overly pessimistic given the 19.52% revenue growth in Q2 2026. If growth holds, the stock could re-rate toward its historical mid-range multiples, implying significant upside.
From a risk/reward perspective, PJT offers a favorable asymmetry: the analyst low target of $142.00 is 3.5% above the current price, while the average target of $161.11 implies 17.4% upside and the high target of $180.00 implies 31.2% upside. The forward PE of 15.78x is well below the trailing PE of 23.89x, suggesting the market expects earnings growth, and the PEG ratio of 0.73 indicates the growth is inexpensive. However, the stock is in a severe downtrend, down 21.47% over the past year and 10.09% over the past month, with negative relative strength across all timeframes. The biggest downside risk is a cyclical downturn in advisory fees, which could cause revenue to decline and the stock to retest its 52-week low of $127.73 (6.9% below current). For long-term investors with a tolerance for volatility, the stock may be a good buy at current levels given the favorable risk/reward and strong fundamentals. For short-term traders, the falling-knife setup suggests waiting for a stabilization above $150 before entering.
PJT is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 2-3 years) given its cyclical advisory business, thin analyst coverage, and recent volatility. The stock's beta of 0.876 is relatively low, but the -32.58% max drawdown shows significant idiosyncratic risk. The dividend yield of 0.57% is modest, so total return depends on capital appreciation. Earnings visibility is limited due to the cyclicality of advisory fees, and the stock is susceptible to deal-activity headlines. Short-term trading is risky given the falling-knife setup and negative momentum. A suggested minimum holding period of 2-3 years allows time for the advisory cycle to play out and for the stock to potentially re-rate toward its historical multiples. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings and advisory activity trends closely.