Quantum Computing Inc. Common
QUBT
$8.96
-2.18%
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) is an integrated photonics and nonlinear quantum optics company developing machines for quantum computing, reservoir computing, and remote sensing, imaging, and cybersecurity applications, with products designed to operate at room temperature and low power. Unlike superconducting quantum hardware leaders such as IBM and Google, QUBT positions itself as a fabless, photonics-based platform play sitting between quantum hardware and enterprise software adoption, with only 77 employees and a market capitalization of roughly $1.8 billion. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between a sector-wide speculative rally — fueled by a reported $2 billion U.S. government quantum investment, Nvidia's quantum error-correction AI model, and Quantinuum's landmark IPO — and QUBT's own deeply unproven commercial traction, with trailing revenue of only a few hundred thousand dollars per quarter. Recent headlines have sharpened the debate: a major institutional investor (Anson Funds) fully exited its position, analysts openly question whether quantum peers will 'lift the basket or eat their lunch,' and commentators warn that quantum names face a '2028 cash test,' making cash runway and dilution risk the central swing factors for the stock.…
QUBT
Quantum Computing Inc. Common
$8.96
Related headlines
QUBT 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Quantum Computing Inc. Common's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $18.67 and implied upside of +108.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$18.67
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+108.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$10 - $32
Analyst target range
Six analysts cover QUBT, and the consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a recommendation mean of 1.67 (on a scale where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell), implying a moderately bullish tilt. The average target price is $18.67, which against the current price of $8.96 implies roughly +108% upside — an extraordinarily wide expected return that itself signals how speculative the coverage is. However, the sentiment is not uniformly bullish: the institutional ratings history shows a clear pattern of 'Buy' reiterations from Ascendiant Capital (most recently October 2025), Rosenblatt (March 2026), and Lake Street (November 2025), but Cantor Fitzgerald has maintained a 'Neutral' rating through both December 2025 and March 2026, and no firm has upgraded or downgraded — the ratings are static reiterations rather than fresh conviction, which is a weak signal. The target range is extremely wide, from a low of $10.00 to a high of $32.00 — a 3.2x spread that signals very low conviction and high uncertainty. The high target of $32.00 (roughly +257% from current levels) would require the company to successfully commercialize its photonics platform, capture meaningful revenue, and likely benefit from sector-wide multiple expansion driven by government investment and quantum adoption; it implicitly assumes the 2028 cash test is passed without crippling dilution. The low target of $10.00 (only +11.6% upside) prices in continued revenue stagnation, ongoing cash burn, competitive pressure from better-capitalized players like Quantinuum and D-Wave, and the possibility that the sector's speculative premium deflates. The estimated revenue average of $1.48 billion for the forward period is wildly inconsistent with the current $198,000 quarterly run-rate and suggests either a data artifact or analyst models that assume a transformational acquisition or contract win — investors should treat this figure with extreme skepticism. With a 9.71 short ratio and a beta of 3.77, the stock is a high-volatility, heavily-shorted name where a wide target spread and static ratings offer little actionable conviction; the consensus 'buy' should be read as a sector-level call on quantum computing rather than a company-specific endorsement.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: QUBT Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence, grounded in QUBT's negligible revenue, extreme valuation, and massive dilution, which collectively paint a picture of a speculative stock with no commercial traction. The bull case relies heavily on the company's large cash pile and sector tailwinds, but these are insufficient to justify the current market cap without a clear path to revenue generation. The single most important tension is whether QUBT can convert its photonics technology into meaningful commercial contracts before its cash runway is depleted or dilution further erodes shareholder value. If revenue remains stagnant, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $6.18; if commercialization accelerates, the analyst average target of $18.67 could be achievable. Given the lack of operating leverage and the competitive landscape, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside until tangible revenue growth emerges.
Bullish
- Massive Cash Pile Funds Multi-Year Runway: QUBT ended Q4 2025 with $737.88 million in cash, up from $352.44 million in Q3 and $78.95 million at the end of 2024. With quarterly cash burn of roughly $11-12 million, this provides over 15 years of runway at the current burn rate, eliminating near-term solvency risk and allowing the company to fund R&D and commercialization without immediate capital markets dependence.
- Analyst Consensus Buy With 108% Upside: Six analysts cover QUBT with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' (mean 1.67) and an average target price of $18.67, implying roughly +108% upside from the current $8.96. The high target of $32.00 suggests potential for +257% if the company successfully commercializes its photonics platform and benefits from sector-wide multiple expansion.
- Sector Tailwinds From Government and Tech Giants: A reported $2 billion U.S. government investment in quantum computing, Nvidia's new AI model for quantum error correction, and Quantinuum's landmark IPO have ignited a sector-wide rally. QUBT, as a fabless photonics-based platform play, could benefit from increased attention and investment flowing into quantum computing.
- Debt-Free Balance Sheet With High Current Ratio: QUBT carries virtually no debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0011 and a current ratio of 102.38. This pristine balance sheet provides flexibility to invest in growth initiatives, pursue acquisitions, or weather economic downturns without the burden of interest payments or refinancing risk.
Bearish
- Negligible Revenue and Erratic Trajectory: Q4 2025 revenue was just $198,000, down from $384,000 in Q3 2025, with Q2 at $61,000 and Q1 at $39,000. The lack of a consistent revenue ramp and no segment data showing commercial traction suggests the company remains a pre-revenue R&D operation, making the $1.8 billion market cap entirely dependent on future promises.
- Extreme Valuation With No Earnings Support: The price-to-sales ratio is 2,474.6x trailing sales, and the EV/Sales ratio is 116.3x, both astronomically high compared to the Technology sector where high-growth software typically trades at 10-20x sales. With negative earnings and cash flow, the valuation is disconnected from fundamentals and vulnerable to severe multiple compression.
- Massive Dilution and Negative Free Cash Flow: Shares outstanding ballooned from 93.9 million to 162.4 million (and 216.1 million diluted) due to $718.62 million of common stock issued in 2025. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$36.98 million TTM, and the company burns $11-12 million per quarter, meaning future dilution is likely unless revenue materializes.
- Institutional Exit and Competitive Threats: Anson Funds fully exited its position, signaling deep skepticism about near-term monetization. Quantinuum's IPO introduces a well-capitalized competitor that could 'eat their lunch,' and analysts openly question whether quantum peers will lift the basket or cannibalize existing players, especially given QUBT's lack of commercial traction.
QUBT Technical Analysis
QUBT is in a damaged long-term downtrend punctuated by violent counter-trend rallies. The stock is down 56.46% over the past year versus a 17.22% gain for SPY, a staggering 73.68 percentage points of relative underperformance, and it sits just 14.1% above its 52-week low of $6.18 while trading 65.3% below its 52-week high of $25.84 — at $8.96, that places the shares at only about 14% of their 52-week range, deep in the lower quartile. This positioning is characteristic of a broken momentum name rather than a healthy pullback: the maximum drawdown of -74.37% confirms the severity of the prior decline, and while the depressed price creates optionality for contrarian buyers, it also reflects genuine skepticism about the commercialization timeline. Recent momentum has turned constructive even as the longer-term trend remains negative. The stock is up 7.31% over the past month and 34.53% over six months, but down 2.40% over three months and 18.62% year-to-date, producing a clear divergence: the 1-month gain of 7.31% versus the 1-year loss of 56.46% suggests a mean-reversion bounce within a structural downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal. Relative strength tells the same story — +6.62 points versus SPY over one month but -73.68 points over one year — and the most recent session saw a 2.18% decline on 8.06 million shares, indicating the bounce is already meeting selling pressure near $9. The key levels are unambiguous: support rests at the 52-week low of $6.18, roughly 31% below the current price, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $25.84, nearly 188% above. A decisive break above the $9.50-$10.00 zone would signal that the recovery has legs, whereas a breakdown below $6.18 would open the door to new all-time lows and likely trigger momentum-driven selling. Risk management is paramount here: the beta of 3.772 means QUBT is roughly 3.8 times as volatile as the S&P 500, so a 1% market move implies a ~3.8% move in QUBT — position sizing should be a fraction of a normal equity allocation, and the 9.71 short ratio indicates heavily crowded short positioning that can amplify moves in either direction.
Beta
3.77
3.77x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-74.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$6-$26
Price range past year
Annual Return
-56.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | QUBT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.3% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -2.4% | +4.1% |
| 6m | +34.5% | +18.6% |
| 1y | -56.5% | +16.6% |
| ytd | -18.6% | +13.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
QUBT Fundamental Analysis
QUBT's revenue trajectory is essentially flat at a negligible base, which is the single most important fact about the company. The most recent quarter (Q4 2025) generated just $198,000 in revenue against $61,000 in Q2 2025, $384,000 in Q3 2025, and $39,000 in Q1 2025, with a reported revenue YoY growth rate of 2.1935 (219%) that is mathematically impressive but economically meaningless off such a tiny denominator. The multi-quarter pattern is erratic rather than compounding — revenue fell from $384,000 in Q3 to $198,000 in Q4 — and with no revenue segment data available, there is no evidence of a commercial product line gaining traction. For a company with a $1.8 billion market cap, annualized revenue of well under $1 million implies the investment case rests entirely on future promise, not current business momentum. Profitability remains deeply negative and margins are deteriorating at the operating line. Q4 2025 net income was -$1.556 million on a gross margin of -49.49% (gross profit of -$98,000, meaning the company loses money on the direct cost of what it sells), while the trailing net margin is -27.38% and the operating margin is a brutal -74.89%. The quarterly swing is extreme: Q1 2025 showed +$16.98 million of net income and Q3 2025 +$2.38 million, but those profits were driven by non-operating items (total other income of $25.27 million and $12.79 million, respectively, largely interest income and mark-to-market gains), not by the business — operating income was negative in every single quarter, ranging from -$8.29 million to -$22.22 million. The Q4 2025 operating loss of $22.22 million against $198,000 of revenue is a 112x operating loss-to-revenue ratio, underscoring that this is a pre-revenue R&D operation, not a commercial enterprise. The balance sheet is the one genuine bright spot, but it is funded by shareholders rather than operations. Cash at the end of Q4 2025 stood at $737.88 million, up from $352.44 million in Q3 and $78.95 million at the end of 2024, funded almost entirely by $718.62 million of common stock issued during 2025 — massive dilution that grew shares outstanding from roughly 93.9 million to 162.4 million (and 216.1 million diluted). The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0011 and current ratio of 102.38 reflect essentially no leverage and enormous liquidity, but free cash flow is deeply negative at -$36.98 million TTM (Q4 2025 alone: -$12.17 million), ROE is -1.17%, and ROA is -4.16%. The company can fund itself internally for years thanks to the equity raise, but every dollar of that runway was purchased with shareholder dilution, and the cash burn of roughly $11-12 million per quarter means the market is effectively underwriting a multi-year option on commercialization.
Quarterly Revenue
$5551000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-21.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-51478000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is QUBT Overvalued?
Because QUBT's trailing net income is negative (-$1.556 million in Q4 2025, EPS of -$0.011), the PE ratio is not meaningful — the trailing PE of -93.27 and forward PE of -37.86 are both artifacts of losses, and the negative EV/EBITDA of -69.63 confirms EBITDA is negative. I therefore lead with the price-to-sales ratio, which at 2,474.6x trailing sales is the only metric that captures how extreme this valuation is; the EV/Sales ratio of 116.3x is lower only because the $737.9 million cash pile offsets enterprise value. Notably, the forward PE of -37.86 versus the trailing -93.27 implies the market expects losses to narrow substantially, and analyst estimated EPS of $1.79 (versus a current quarterly EPS of -$0.0096) implies the sell-side models a dramatic profitability inflection — an assumption that is heroic given operating losses are widening, not narrowing. Peer comparison is difficult because QUBT has essentially no revenue, but the spread versus the broader Technology sector is staggering: a PS of 2,474.6x versus a sector where even high-growth software typically trades at 10-20x sales represents a premium of more than 100x, and the PB ratio of 1.056 is the only metric that looks reasonable — but only because the balance sheet is stuffed with cash from equity issuance, not because the business generates value. The PEG ratio of 1.098 is meaningless given the negative earnings base. On a price-to-book basis, QUBT at 1.06x is actually below the sector, but this is a value trap signal: book value is dominated by cash raised through dilution, and the market is valuing the operating business at a fraction of the cash on hand, implying investors assign negative value to the enterprise itself. Historical context is damning: the PS ratio has ranged from 601.5x (Q3 2024) to 44,437x (Q2 2025) and now sits at 2,474.6x, while the PB ratio has collapsed from 14.48x at the end of 2024 to 1.06x today — a 93% compression that reflects both the massive equity raise (which inflated book value) and the 56% one-year price decline. The current PB of 1.06x is near the bottom of its multi-year range (versus 6.14x in Q4 2021 and 14.48x in Q4 2024), which could signal a value opportunity, but given that book value is cash-funded and the operating business burns $11-12 million per quarter, the more likely interpretation is that the market is pricing in continued dilution and a long path to any commercial revenue.
PE
-93.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-69.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
QUBT faces severe financial and operational risks stemming from its pre-revenue status and cash burn. The company generated only $198,000 in Q4 2025 revenue while operating losses reached $22.22 million, a 112x operating loss-to-revenue ratio, and free cash flow was -$36.98 million TTM. With quarterly cash burn of $11-12 million, the $737.88 million cash pile provides runway but was funded by $718.62 million of equity issuance in 2025, diluting shares from 93.9 million to 162.4 million. Gross margin is negative at -49.49% in Q4 2025, meaning the company loses money on direct costs, and the erratic revenue pattern (Q1: $39k, Q2: $61k, Q3: $384k, Q4: $198k) shows no consistent commercial traction. The lack of revenue concentration data is itself a risk, as it suggests no single product or customer is driving growth.
Market and competitive risks are amplified by QUBT's extreme valuation and high beta. The price-to-sales ratio of 2,474.6x is over 100x the typical high-growth software multiple, leaving the stock vulnerable to severe multiple compression if sentiment shifts. With a beta of 3.772, QUBT is nearly four times as volatile as the S&P 500, so a 1% market decline could translate to a ~3.8% drop. Competitive threats are intensifying: Quantinuum's IPO introduces a well-capitalized leader, and Nvidia's quantum error-correction AI model could benefit larger players more. The exit of Anson Funds and cautious analyst commentary highlight skepticism about QUBT's ability to compete. Regulatory and geopolitical factors, such as government funding priorities, could also impact the sector.
The worst-case scenario involves QUBT failing to commercialize its technology, leading to continued cash burn and further dilution. If revenue remains below $1 million annually and operating losses persist, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $6.18, representing a 31% decline from the current $8.96. A breakdown below $6.18 could trigger momentum-driven selling, potentially pushing the stock to new all-time lows. The analyst low target of $10.00 is above the current price, but in a bear case, the stock could fall to $6.18 or lower, implying a loss of 31% or more. Given the 74.37% maximum drawdown, investors could lose over 70% from peak levels in an adverse scenario.
