Rubrik
RBRK
$93.05
-13.05%
Rubrik, Inc. is a leading data security and cyber resilience company that provides a cloud-native platform for data protection, backup, and recovery, serving organizations from mid-sized businesses to global enterprises. As a pioneer in the cyber resilience space, Rubrik distinguishes itself through its AI-driven threat detection and rapid recovery capabilities, positioning it as a critical player in the cybersecurity ecosystem. The current investor narrative centers on the accelerating demand for its solutions, driven by the rise of AI-powered cyber threats and the company's successful transition to a subscription-based model, which has fueled strong revenue growth and a surge in its stock price. Recent news highlights Rubrik as a key beneficiary of the cybersecurity race triggered by Anthropic's 'Mythos' AI, underscoring its strategic importance in the evolving threat landscape.…
RBRK
Rubrik
$93.05
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy RBRK Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate Rubrik as a Buy. The company's accelerating revenue growth (38.99% YoY), high gross margins (80.55%), and strong free cash flow ($306.46M) support a positive outlook. The analyst consensus is 'Strong Buy' with an average target price of $100.59, which is near the current price, but the high target of $135 suggests significant upside potential. The thesis is that Rubrik's cyber resilience platform is well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven cybersecurity race, and its subscription model provides recurring revenue visibility.
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RBRK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI-driven cybersecurity race is a powerful tailwind for Rubrik, and the company's strong revenue growth and high gross margins position it well. However, the stock's elevated valuation and ongoing losses introduce uncertainty. I would upgrade my stance to 'high confidence' if the company achieves positive operating income or if revenue growth accelerates above 40%. Conversely, a deceleration in growth or a failure to improve margins would lead to a downgrade to 'neutral'.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rubrik's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $107.11 and implied upside of +15.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$107.11
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$85 - $135
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $85.00 to a high of $135.00, with the high target implying a 34.9% upside from the current price, while the low target suggests a 15.1% downside. This wide spread reflects uncertainty about the company's ability to sustain its growth and achieve profitability. Recent ratings actions have been uniformly positive, with firms like BMO Capital, Stephens & Co., and DA Davidson reiterating or maintaining their bullish stances, suggesting that analysts are confident in the company's long-term prospects. The high target likely assumes continued strong revenue growth and margin expansion, while the low target may factor in potential competitive pressures or a slowdown in cybersecurity spending.
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Bulls vs Bears: RBRK Investment Factors
Rubrik presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, high gross margins, and strong free cash flow, underpinned by a secular tailwind from AI-driven cyber threats. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation (PS 8.35x) and remains GAAP-unprofitable, with elevated volatility and a history of sharp drawdowns. The bull case is currently stronger, given the company's rapid growth and improving profitability metrics, but the key tension is whether Rubrik can sustain its ~39% revenue growth while transitioning to profitability, as any deceleration could trigger a significant de-rating. The most critical factor to watch is the trajectory of operating margins and free cash flow conversion, which will determine if the current valuation is justified.
Bullish
- Accelerating revenue growth: Rubrik's Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 38.99% YoY to $387.07M, with sequential acceleration from $278.48M in Q1 FY2026 to $387.07M, indicating robust demand. Subscription revenue of $374.15M (96.7% of total) highlights a successful recurring revenue model.
- High gross margin expansion: Gross margin improved to 80.55% in Q1 FY2027, up from 78.28% a year earlier, reflecting scale benefits and a favorable mix shift to software. This provides a strong foundation for future operating leverage as the company scales.
- Positive analyst sentiment: With 27 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Strong Buy' (mean 1.11), and the average target price of $100.59 is roughly in line with the current price, while the high target of $135 implies 34.9% upside. Recent actions from BMO Capital, Stephens, and DA Davidson have been bullish.
- AI-driven cyber threat tailwind: The emergence of AI-powered threats, such as Anthropic's 'Mythos', is forcing enterprises to upgrade cybersecurity defenses, directly benefiting Rubrik's cyber resilience platform. This secular trend supports sustained demand for its data security solutions.
Bearish
- Persistent GAAP losses: Rubrik reported a net loss of $41.85M in Q1 FY2027, with EPS of -$0.21. While losses are narrowing (from -$0.53 a year ago), the company remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, and the trailing PE is negative (-31.4x), making valuation reliant on future profitability.
- Elevated valuation multiples: The current PS ratio of 8.35x is high, though the forward PS of 3.37x (based on estimated FY2027 revenue of $3.26B) suggests the market is pricing in significant growth. Any slowdown in revenue growth could lead to multiple compression.
- High stock volatility and drawdown risk: The stock has a beta of 1.168 and a historical max drawdown of -55.52%, indicating significant downside risk. Trading near its 52-week high of $106.50, the stock could be vulnerable to profit-taking, especially given its 99.38% surge over the past six months.
- Negative operating margin: Operating margin was -13.60% in Q1 FY2027, though improved from -33.43% a year ago. Heavy spending on sales and marketing ($193.10M) and R&D ($114.34M) continues to pressure profitability, and the path to sustained profitability remains uncertain.
RBRK Technical Analysis
Rubrik's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +17.42% and a 6-month change of +99.38%, reflecting a dramatic acceleration in momentum. The current price of $100.09 sits at 94% of its 52-week range (low: $42.25, high: $106.50), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which suggests strong bullish sentiment but also potential overextension. This positioning near the upper end of the range highlights the market's optimism, though it also raises the risk of a pullback if momentum stalls.
Beta
1.17
1.17x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$42-$108
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RBRK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +29.4% | +5.5% |
| 3m | +18.3% | +1.7% |
| 6m | +79.1% | +12.2% |
| 1y | +0.0% | +18.6% |
| ytd | +23.3% | +12.8% |
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RBRK Fundamental Analysis
Rubrik's revenue is growing rapidly, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ended April 30, 2026) reporting $387.07 million, a 38.99% YoY increase. This growth is accelerating, as seen in the sequential progression from $278.48 million in Q1 FY2026 to $309.86 million, $350.17 million, $377.68 million, and now $387.07 million, indicating a robust demand environment. The growth is driven by subscription revenue, which accounts for $374.15 million of total revenue, while product and service revenue is a minor $12.92 million, underscoring the successful shift to a recurring revenue model.
Quarterly Revenue
$387068000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+39.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$306457000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RBRK Overvalued?
Given Rubrik's negative net income (EPS of -$0.21 in the latest quarter), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as it focuses on revenue generation. The current PS ratio is 8.35x, while the forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $3.26 billion) is approximately 3.37x, implying that the market expects significant revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward PS suggests that investors are pricing in a substantial expansion in the company's revenue base, which is consistent with its high growth trajectory.
PE
-31.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-72.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. Rubrik's negative net income (EPS -$0.21) and operating margin of -13.60% indicate ongoing losses, though they are narrowing. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is -2.18, reflecting a high level of intangible assets and negative book equity, which could limit financial flexibility. However, the current ratio of 1.69 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, and free cash flow of $306.46M provides a buffer. The reliance on subscription revenue (96.7%) is a strength but also means that any churn or slowdown in new subscriptions could directly impact growth. Additionally, the company's high sales and marketing expenses ($193.10M) are necessary to fuel growth but pressure margins, and if growth decelerates, these costs could become a burden.
FAQ
The key risks of holding Rubrik include: 1) Financial risk: The company is unprofitable, with a net loss of $41.85M in Q1 FY2027, and has a negative operating margin of -13.60%. 2) Valuation risk: The stock trades at a high PS ratio of 8.35x, and any growth slowdown could lead to multiple compression. 3) Competitive risk: The cybersecurity market is crowded, with players like CrowdStrike and Cloudflare, and Rubrik must differentiate to maintain market share. 4) Macro risk: A downturn in IT spending could reduce demand. The most severe risk is a -57.8% drop to the 52-week low of $42.25 if the company fails to meet growth expectations. These risks are ranked by severity, with valuation and competition being the most significant.
The 12-month forecast for Rubrik is bullish, with a base case target of $90-$110 (50% probability), a bull case target of $115-$135 (30% probability), and a bear case target of $70-$85 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is the base case, where revenue growth continues at 35-40% and the stock trades around the analyst average target of $100.59. The bull case assumes faster growth and margin improvement, reaching the high target of $135. The bear case assumes a growth slowdown, leading to a decline to $85 or lower. Overall, the stock is expected to appreciate modestly, but with high volatility.
Rubrik's valuation is a mixed picture. On a trailing basis, the PS ratio of 8.35x is high, but the forward PS of 3.37x (based on estimated revenue of $3.26B) is more reasonable, implying the market expects significant growth. The PEG ratio of 0.41 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, but this is based on forward estimates. Compared to peers, Rubrik trades at a premium, reflecting its high growth. The market is pricing in continued strong growth and eventual profitability. If the company delivers on these expectations, the stock is fairly valued; if not, it could be overvalued. Overall, the valuation is justified only if the company sustains its ~39% revenue growth and improves margins.
Rubrik is a good buy for investors seeking high growth and willing to tolerate volatility. The stock has a 'Strong Buy' consensus from 27 analysts, with an average target price of $100.59, implying a modest 0.5% upside, but the high target of $135 suggests a 34.9% potential gain. The company's revenue is growing at 38.99% YoY, and it has a high gross margin of 80.55%. However, the stock is not cheap, trading at a PS ratio of 8.35x, and it is unprofitable, with a negative EPS of -$0.21. The biggest downside risk is a -57.8% drop to the 52-week low of $42.25 if growth stalls. Therefore, it is a good buy for aggressive growth investors with a long-term horizon, but not for risk-averse investors.
Rubrik is more suitable for long-term investment, given its high growth stage and volatility (beta of 1.168). The company is investing heavily in growth, and it may take several years to achieve profitability. Short-term trading is possible, given the stock's momentum, but it carries high risk due to its volatility and potential for sharp pullbacks. For long-term investors, a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the company to scale and realize its potential. The company does not pay a dividend, so returns will come from capital appreciation. Investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term perspective may find Rubrik attractive, but those needing income or stability should look elsewhere.
