NuScale
SMR
$6.70
-6.94%
NuScale Power Corporation is a nuclear technology company developing proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) systems, principally its Light Water Nuclear Reactor NuScale Power Module (NPM), which generates 77 MWe per module and is marketed through its VOYGR power plant and E2 Center product lines. As the first and only SMR design to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission certification, NuScale occupies a distinct first-mover position in the emerging SMR industry, though it remains pre-commercial with no reactors yet deployed and only 428 employees. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between enormous long-term optionality from AI data-center power demand and Big Tech's multi-decade nuclear procurement deals, versus a stark reality of near-zero revenue, widening losses, and a stock that has collapsed 82% over the past year. Recent headlines capture this duality: Amazon's $3 billion nuclear power deal and a historic 6-gigawatt SMR program have fueled optimism, while Holtec's cancelled IPO, competitor X-Energy's regulatory progress, and UBS's downgrade to Sell underscore mounting skepticism about commercialization timelines and cash burn.…
SMR
NuScale
$6.70
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Based on the synthesis of data, the objective rating for NuScale Power is a Hold with a speculative bias. The core thesis is that NuScale's first-mover regulatory advantage and the massive long-term demand for SMRs from AI data centers provide substantial optionality, but the company's near-zero revenue, widening losses, and 82% stock decline over the past year reflect extreme execution risk. The analyst consensus average target of $11.77 implies a 63.5% upside, but with no clear near-term catalyst and a high cash burn, the risk/reward is balanced for most investors.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes: 1) a price-to-sales ratio of 73.7 and EV-to-sales of 176.9, which are unsustainable without a revenue inflection; 2) revenue of just $75,000 in Q2 2026, down 99.07% year-over-year, highlighting the pre-commercial stage; 3) a net margin of -11.3% and operating margin of -21.9%, indicating deep unprofitability; and 4) negative free cash flow of -$776.9 million TTM, which raises concerns about future dilution. On the positive side, the company has zero debt, a current ratio of 4.30, and $13.9 million in quarterly interest income, providing a liquidity cushion. The average analyst target of $11.77 and high target of $20.00 suggest that if contracts materialize, the stock could re-rate significantly.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: 1) failure to convert the 6-GW program into firm contracts, which would delay revenue and strain cash; 2) competitive pressures from X-Energy and others gaining regulatory approvals; and 3) a high beta of 2.37, making the stock vulnerable to market downturns. The rating would upgrade to Buy if NuScale announces a binding contract for multiple modules or if revenue begins to ramp toward the $1.49 billion analyst estimate. Conversely, a downgrade to Sell would occur if cash reserves fall below $200 million without a clear path to profitability or if the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $7.07 on high volume. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears undervalued on a price-to-book basis (1.98) but overvalued on sales and earnings metrics, reflecting the binary nature of its outlook.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
NuScale presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity that is currently balanced between its revolutionary potential and severe commercial challenges. The company's NRC certification and Amazon's nuclear deal validate the long-term thesis, but the lack of revenue and massive cash burn make near-term performance uncertain. The analyst consensus target of $11.77 suggests meaningful upside, yet the stock's high beta and competitive pressures could lead to further downside. I would upgrade to bullish if NuScale announces a binding contract for multiple modules, and downgrade to bearish if cash reserves fall below $200 million or if a competitor secures a major deal first. Given the binary nature of the investment, a neutral stance with a speculative tilt is appropriate for the next 12 months.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $11.77 and implied upside of +75.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$11.77
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+75.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
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Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to NuScale's near-zero revenue, massive cash burn, and 82% one-year stock decline, which collectively highlight the immense execution risk. However, the bull case rests on a unique regulatory moat, a $1.49 billion revenue inflection expected by analysts, and validated demand from Amazon's $3 billion nuclear deal. The single most important tension is whether NuScale can convert its pipeline into firm contracts before its cash reserves dwindle, as any delay would likely trigger further downside. With a 63.5% upside to the average analyst target and a 16.7% downside to the low target, the risk/reward is skewed positively, but only for investors with a high tolerance for volatility and a multi-year horizon.
Bullish
- First and only NRC-certified SMR design: NuScale's NPM is the only small modular reactor design to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission certification, creating a multi-year regulatory moat. This first-mover advantage is critical in a sector where competitors like X-Energy are only now achieving U.K. regulatory acceptance, and it positions NuScale to capture utility and Big Tech contracts as demand accelerates.
- Analyst average target implies 63% upside: The 15-analyst average price target of $11.77 represents a 63.5% premium to the current $7.20 price, with a high target of $20.00 implying 178% upside. Even the low target of $6.00 is only 16.7% below current levels, suggesting the sell-side sees limited further downside and substantial recovery potential.
- Amazon's $3B nuclear deal validates SMR demand: Amazon's 20-year, $3 billion nuclear power deal with Constellation, along with a historic 6-gigawatt SMR program, underscores the massive addressable market for carbon-free baseload power from data centers. NuScale's utility-focused strategy is directly aligned with this secular trend, and its technology is purpose-built for scalable deployment.
- Strong balance sheet with 4.3x current ratio: NuScale carries zero debt (debt-to-equity of 0) and a current ratio of 4.30, indicating ample short-term liquidity to fund operations. With $13.9 million in quarterly interest income and no interest expense, the company has a cash cushion that reduces near-term solvency risk despite ongoing losses.
Bearish
- Revenue collapsed 99% year-over-year: Q2 2026 revenue was just $75,000, down 99.07% from $8.05 million in Q2 2025, highlighting the pre-commercial nature of the business. With no reactors deployed and no firm contracts, the company has virtually no recurring revenue to offset its cash burn.
- Massive cash burn and negative free cash flow: Free cash flow TTM is -$776.9 million, and Q2 2026 alone saw a net loss of $47.5 million with operating expenses of $63.9 million. This burn rate, if sustained, could exhaust the company's cash reserves within a few years unless significant new contracts or financing materialize.
- Stock down 82% in one year, 86.5% max drawdown: SMR has plummeted 82.27% over the past year and 55.86% year-to-date, with a maximum drawdown of 86.52% from its 52-week high of $57.42. This severe underperformance reflects eroding investor confidence and the high-risk nature of pre-revenue clean-tech ventures.
- Extreme valuation multiples with no earnings: The price-to-sales ratio is 73.7 and EV-to-sales is 176.9, while trailing PE is negative at -6.53 and forward PE is -10.91. These multiples are unsustainable without a rapid revenue ramp, and the negative PEG ratio of -0.14 signals that earnings growth is not yet a meaningful valuation anchor.
SMR Technical Analysis
Beta
2.37
2.37x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-87.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-82.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -22.2% | +1.8% |
| 3m | -22.1% | +3.5% |
| 6m | -42.8% | +11.2% |
| 1y | -82.9% | +19.1% |
| ytd | -58.9% | +14.1% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$75000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
-99.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-776871000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
NuScale faces severe financial and operational risks stemming from its pre-revenue status. Q2 2026 revenue was just $75,000, a 99.07% year-over-year decline, while net loss reached $47.5 million and free cash flow TTM was -$776.9 million. The company has no debt and a current ratio of 4.30, but its cash burn rate of roughly $50 million per quarter could deplete reserves within a few years if new contracts are not secured. Additionally, gross margin turned negative at -202.7% in Q2 2026, reflecting the lack of economies of scale and the high cost of initial project development.
Market and competitive risks are amplified by NuScale's extreme valuation and high beta. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 73.7 and EV-to-sales of 176.9, leaving it vulnerable to sharp multiple compression if revenue growth disappoints. Its beta of 2.37 means it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, and it has underperformed the S&P 500 by 98.3 percentage points over the past year. Competitive threats are mounting: X-Energy's U.K. regulatory acceptance and Holtec's cancelled IPO signal a challenging landscape, while UBS's downgrade to Sell underscores shifting sentiment. Regulatory and political risks also persist, as nuclear projects often face delays and cost overruns.
The worst-case scenario involves NuScale failing to secure firm contracts, leading to a cash crunch and potential dilution or bankruptcy. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $7.07, representing a 1.8% decline from the current $7.20, but if sentiment deteriorates further, it could fall to the analyst low target of $6.00, a 16.7% drop. A more extreme outcome, such as a failed capital raise or a major competitor winning key contracts, could push the stock below $5, implying a loss of over 30% from current levels. Given the 86.5% maximum drawdown already experienced, investors should be prepared for significant downside volatility.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: NuScale has no revenue and burns cash rapidly, with free cash flow TTM of -$776.9 million and a net loss of $47.5 million in Q2 2026 alone. 2) Competitive risk: Competitors like X-Energy are advancing, and Holtec's cancelled IPO signals a tough environment; NuScale could lose its first-mover advantage. 3) Macro risk: With a beta of 2.37, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and interest rate changes, which could disproportionately impact a pre-revenue company. 4) Execution risk: The company must convert its pipeline into binding contracts, and any delay or cost overrun could lead to dilution or bankruptcy. These risks are ranked from high to moderate, with financial and execution risks being the most severe.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $15-$20, base case (50% probability) with a target range of $10-$13, and bear case (25% probability) with a target range of $5-$7. The base case is most likely, assuming no binding contracts but continued progress, with the stock gravitating toward the analyst average target of $11.77. The bull case requires a major contract announcement, while the bear case involves competitive losses or cash concerns. The key assumption for the base case is that NuScale maintains its cash position above $300 million and avoids dilutive financing. Overall, the risk/reward is skewed to the upside if contracts materialize, but the wide range reflects high uncertainty.
SMR appears significantly overvalued on traditional metrics, with a price-to-sales ratio of 73.7 and EV-to-sales of 176.9, compared to the broader industrial sector average of around 2-3x. However, these multiples are meaningless given the pre-revenue stage, and the market is pricing in future growth. The price-to-book ratio of 1.98 is more reasonable, suggesting some asset value support. The negative PE ratios (-6.53 trailing, -10.91 forward) indicate no earnings. Relative to its own history, the stock is down 82% from its 52-week high, which could represent a value opportunity if the growth story remains intact. The valuation implies the market expects NuScale to capture a significant share of the SMR market, but any delay would likely lead to multiple compression.
SMR is a high-risk, high-reward speculative buy only for investors with a long-term horizon and high risk tolerance. The stock trades at $7.20, with a 63.5% upside to the average analyst target of $11.77, but it also carries a 16.7% downside to the low target of $6.00. The company has no debt and a current ratio of 4.30, but its revenue is virtually zero and cash burn is -$776.9 million TTM. If NuScale secures a binding contract, the stock could soar; if not, further dilution or decline is likely. Therefore, it is not a good buy for conservative investors, but could be a small position in a diversified portfolio for those betting on the SMR theme.
SMR is suitable only for long-term investment, with a minimum holding period of 3-5 years, due to its pre-commercial stage and the multi-year timeline for nuclear reactor deployment. The stock is highly volatile (beta 2.37) and has no dividend, so it offers no income. Short-term trading is extremely risky given the lack of near-term catalysts and the potential for sharp moves on news. Earnings visibility is low, with revenue expected to remain minimal until contracts are signed. Investors should be prepared to hold through significant drawdowns, as evidenced by the 86.5% maximum drawdown. A long-term horizon allows time for the SMR market to develop and for NuScale to potentially capture a significant share.
