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T-Mobile US

TMUS

$184.36

-2.38%

T-Mobile US, Inc. is a major telecommunications services company operating as the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States, providing postpaid and prepaid phone services, fixed-wireless broadband, and wholesale services. The company has established a distinct competitive identity as a disruptive market challenger, known for its aggressive network expansion following the Sprint merger and its capital-efficient push into the fixed-wireless broadband market. The current investor narrative is dominated by its strategic pivot from a pure-play wireless carrier into a growth-focused digital infrastructure challenger, leveraging its 5G network to attack the cable broadband market, while simultaneously navigating long-term competitive threats from emerging satellite broadband technologies like Starlink.…

Should I buy TMUS
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

TMUS

T-Mobile US

$184.36

-2.38%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
T-Mobile US, Inc. is a major telecommunications services company operating as the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States, providing postpaid and prepaid phone services, fixed-wireless broadband, and wholesale services. The company has established a distinct competitive identity as a disruptive market challenger, known for its aggressive network expansion following the Sprint merger and its capital-efficient push into the fixed-wireless broadband market. The current investor narrative is dominated by its strategic pivot from a pure-play wireless carrier into a growth-focused digital infrastructure challenger, leveraging its 5G network to attack the cable broadband market, while simultaneously navigating long-term competitive threats from emerging satellite broadband technologies like Starlink.
Should I buy TMUS

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TMUS 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $184.36
Average Target $184.36
High Target $212.014
Low Target $156.70600000000002

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on T-Mobile US's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $239.67 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$239.67

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$147 - $240

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

Analyst coverage is substantial with 15 firms providing estimates, and the institutional rating actions show a pattern of reiterated bullish stances, with recent actions from firms like Daiwa Capital upgrading to 'Outperform' and Wells Fargo and Barclays maintaining 'Overweight' ratings. The consensus recommendation leans bullish, and the average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $20.14 and a forward PE of 13.53x is approximately $272.50, representing a significant implied upside of roughly 44% from the current price of $189.10. The target range derived from estimated EPS has a high of $20.30 and a low of $19.78, which is unusually tight, signaling strong analyst conviction in near-term earnings; however, the wide dispersion in actual price targets (implied by the valuation multiples analysts use) would reflect differing views on long-term growth sustainability and competitive threats, with high targets banking on successful broadband market share capture and low targets factoring in heightened competition and margin pressure.

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TMUS Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -17.32% and a current price of $189.10, which sits at just 21.7% of its 52-week range ($174.02 to $261.56). This positioning near the lower bound of its annual range suggests the stock is deeply oversold, presenting a potential value opportunity, though it also reflects significant negative momentum and investor pessimism. Recent momentum has been weak and negative, with the stock down 13.01% over the last three months and 0.62% over the past month, indicating the short-term trend is consistent with the longer-term downtrend, with no signs of a meaningful reversal. The stock's beta of 0.30 indicates it is approximately 70% less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is unusually low for a telecom and suggests it has been acting as a relative safe haven or is being driven by idiosyncratic factors rather than market swings. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $174.02 and resistance at the 52-week high of $261.56; a sustained breakdown below $174 would signal a new phase of technical weakness, while a recovery above the $200 level would be needed to suggest the downtrend is abating.

Beta

0.30

0.30x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-31.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$174-$262

Price range past year

Annual Return

-20.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTMUS ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.5%+1.5%
3m-10.8%+13.4%
6m-7.9%+10.9%
1y-20.2%+24.5%
ytd-7.6%+10.0%

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TMUS Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue of $24.33 billion representing an 11.26% year-over-year increase, though this marks a deceleration from the higher growth rates seen in prior quarters of 2025 (e.g., Q2 revenue grew 6.9% sequentially). The growth is being driven by the company's expansion into new markets, with segment data showing Branded Postpaid Revenue of $15.38 billion as the core cash cow, while the aggressive push into fixed wireless is captured in other service lines. Profitability is solid but showed compression in the most recent quarter, with Q4 2025 net income of $2.10 billion and a gross margin of 42.48%, which declined from 49.29% in Q3 2025; this quarterly margin volatility is notable, but the trailing twelve-month net margin of 12.45% and operating margin of 21.23% indicate fundamentally healthy profitability for the sector. The balance sheet is leveraged but supported by strong cash generation, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.07 and a current ratio of 1.00 indicating adequate short-term liquidity; critically, the company generated substantial free cash flow of $17.99 billion over the trailing twelve months and $4.19 billion in the latest quarter, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives and shareholder returns without excessive reliance on external debt markets.

Quarterly Revenue

$24.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.11%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.42%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$18.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Branded Postpaid Revenue
Branded Prepaid Revenue
Product and Service, Other
Product, Equipment
Wholesale Service Revenue

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Valuation Analysis: Is TMUS Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 20.84x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 13.53x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, T-Mobile's trailing PE of 20.84x trades at a premium to the typical telecom valuation, which often resides in the low-teens, a premium that may be justified by its superior growth profile from fixed wireless expansion and market share gains. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed significantly; its current trailing PE of 20.84x is below its recent historical range, which saw multiples above 25x in early 2025, suggesting the market has de-rated the stock due to growth deceleration concerns or sector-wide pressures, moving it from pricing in optimistic expectations toward a more cautious stance.

PE

20.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -391x~86x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

11.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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