TTM Technologies
TTMI
$146.85
+10.27%
TTM Technologies Inc manufactures technology products, including mission systems, RF components, RF/microwave assemblies, and advanced interconnect products such as PCBs and substrates. It operates through three segments: A&D, Commercial, and RF&S Components, with the Commercial segment generating the majority of revenue serving automotive, medical, industrial, and data center markets. The company is a key player in the PCB and advanced electronics manufacturing space, benefiting from secular growth in AI data centers and aerospace & defense. Recent attention has focused on its record Q1 2026 results driven by explosive AI data center demand and its strategic acquisition of European-based Swiss Technology Group and ILFA GmbH to expand into high-value European markets.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$146.85
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTMI Today?
Rating: Buy. TTMI is a high-growth technology play benefiting from secular AI data center demand and aerospace & defense strength, with strong analyst consensus and a 60.6% upside to the average target of $212. The core thesis is that accelerating revenue growth (30.4% YoY) and expanding margins will drive earnings growth, justifying the forward P/E of 24.4x.
Supporting evidence: (1) Revenue grew 30.4% YoY to $846M, accelerating from prior quarters. (2) Net margin expanded to 5.9% from 5.0% a year ago, with operating margin up to 8.8%. (3) Forward P/E of 24.4x is reasonable given expected EPS growth of $6.59, implying a PEG ratio of 0.19. (4) Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $212, implying 60.6% upside. (5) The company has a healthy balance sheet with debt-to-equity of 0.63 and current ratio of 1.93.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are (1) growth deceleration in AI spending, (2) negative free cash flow from heavy capex, and (3) high volatility (beta 2.098). This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth slows below 15% or if the stock reaches the analyst target of $212 without new catalysts. It would be upgraded to Strong Buy if free cash flow turns positive or if the forward P/E compresses below 20x. Overall, TTMI is fairly valued relative to its growth rate but overvalued on a trailing basis; the investment case depends on sustained execution.
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TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
TTMI is well-positioned to benefit from secular AI data center growth, with strong revenue momentum and expanding margins. The forward valuation is reasonable given the growth rate, and analyst sentiment is unanimously bullish. However, the stock's high beta and recent 35% decline highlight significant short-term risk. The base case of 20-25% growth and a return to the analyst target of $212 is the most probable outcome, but investors should be prepared for volatility. An upgrade to a more bullish stance would require evidence of sustained free cash flow generation and continued revenue acceleration, while a downgrade would follow any signs of growth deceleration or margin compression.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $212.00 and implied upside of +44.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$212.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+44.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$205 - $220
Analyst target range
TTMI is covered by 4 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean 1.25 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $212.00, implying a +60.6% upside from the current price of $132. The distribution shows all analysts are bullish, with no holds or sells, indicating strong conviction in the company's growth story. The target range spans from a low of $205.00 to a high of $220.00, a relatively narrow spread of $15 (7.3% of the average), signaling high conviction among analysts. The high target of $220 assumes continued AI-driven growth and successful integration of European acquisitions, while the low target of $205 still implies significant upside, pricing in potential headwinds like margin compression or slower growth. Recent ratings from Needham, Truist, B. Riley, and Stifel have all been reiterated as Buy, with no downgrades, reinforcing the positive sentiment. The narrow range and unanimous bullishness suggest analysts see a clear path to higher earnings, though the wide gap to the current price also reflects the recent sharp pullback.
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Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
TTMI presents a compelling growth story driven by AI data center demand and expanding margins, with strong analyst support and a healthy balance sheet. However, the stock's premium valuation and recent 35% monthly decline highlight significant volatility and execution risk. The bull case is supported by 30%+ revenue growth, expanding margins, and a 60%+ upside to analyst targets, while the bear case centers on valuation risk, negative free cash flow, and concentration in AI spending. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory to justify its forward P/E of 24.4x; if growth decelerates, the stock could face severe multiple compression. Currently, the evidence leans bullish given the strong fundamental momentum and analyst conviction, but the risk-reward is balanced by the high volatility and premium valuation.
Bullish
- AI Data Center Demand Driving Record Revenue: Q1 2026 revenue surged 30.4% YoY to $846M, driven by explosive AI data center demand. The Commercial segment, which includes data center, is the primary growth engine, and the company reported record quarterly results, signaling strong secular tailwinds.
- Expanding Margins Show Operating Leverage: Gross margin improved to 20.8% from 20.2% a year ago, and operating margin rose to 8.8% from 7.7%. Net margin expanded to 5.9% from 5.0%, indicating the company is scaling efficiently and benefiting from higher volumes.
- Strong Analyst Conviction with 60%+ Upside: All 4 analysts rate TTMI a Strong Buy, with an average target of $212, implying 60.6% upside from the current $132. The narrow target range ($205-$220) reflects high conviction in the growth story.
- Strategic European Acquisitions Expand TAM: The acquisition of Swiss Technology Group and ILFA GmbH expands TTMI's presence in high-value European aerospace, defense, and medical markets. This diversifies revenue geographically and adds high-margin capabilities.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation Leaves No Room for Error: Trailing P/E of 41.2x is well above the stock's historical median of ~20x and the industry average. While forward P/E of 24.4x is more reasonable, any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Negative Free Cash Flow Due to Heavy Capex: Free cash flow was -$85.1M in Q1 2026 and -$11.8M TTM, as the company spent $106.8M on capex for capacity expansion. If growth slows, the high capex burden could pressure returns and liquidity.
- Recent 35% Monthly Decline Signals Volatility: The stock fell 34.9% in the past month, massively underperforming the S&P 500's +0.3%. With a beta of 2.098, TTMI is highly sensitive to market sentiment, and the sharp pullback may indicate profit-taking or shifting risk appetite.
- Revenue Concentration in AI Data Centers: While AI demand is a strong tailwind, it also creates concentration risk. A slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or a shift in customer preferences could disproportionately impact TTMI's growth, given its heavy exposure to data center customers.
TTMI Technical Analysis
TTMI is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +185.6%, massively outperforming the S&P 500's +18.4%. The current price of $132 sits at 59.0% of its 52-week range ($39.20 low to $223.83 high), indicating it has pulled back significantly from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend, potentially offering a value entry if the long-term trend resumes. Short-term momentum is sharply negative, with a 1-month price change of -34.9% and a 3-month change of +4.6%, showing a stark divergence from the 1-year trend. The 1-month decline is far worse than the S&P 500's +0.3%, resulting in a relative strength of -35.2% over the month. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or profit-taking after a massive run, but the 3-month still positive suggests the longer-term trend may not be broken. Key support is at the 52-week low of $39.20, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $223.83. A break below $130 (recent low) could signal further downside, while a move above $150 would indicate recovery. With a beta of 2.098, TTMI is more than twice as volatile as the market, meaning larger swings in both directions, which is critical for risk management.
Beta
2.10
2.10x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-41.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$224
Price range past year
Annual Return
+209.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -32.2% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +15.9% | +5.2% |
| 6m | +50.6% | +8.6% |
| 1y | +209.4% | +19.0% |
| ytd | +108.0% | +9.7% |
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TTMI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing strongly, with Q1 2026 revenue of $846.0 million up 30.4% year-over-year, accelerating from the prior quarter's $774.3 million and well above the $648.7 million reported in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent acceleration from Q2 2025's $730.6 million, driven by AI data center demand and aerospace & defense strength. The Commercial segment, particularly data center, is the primary growth engine, while the A&D segment provides stable, long-term contract revenue. Profitability is solid and improving: net income for Q1 2026 was $49.99 million, up from $32.18 million in Q1 2025, with net margin expanding to 5.9% from 5.0%. Gross margin improved to 20.8% from 20.2% a year ago, and operating margin rose to 8.8% from 7.7%, indicating operating leverage. The company is consistently profitable with positive net income over the trailing twelve months, and margins are trending upward, which is favorable for the investment case. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is 0.63, and the current ratio is 1.93, indicating adequate liquidity. However, free cash flow was negative in Q1 2026 at -$85.1 million due to heavy capital expenditures of $106.8 million for capacity expansion, though trailing twelve-month FCF is -$11.8 million. ROE is 10.1%, and the company generates enough operating cash flow ($21.7 million in Q1) to cover interest expenses, with an interest coverage ratio of 7.0x, suggesting low financial risk despite the capex-driven FCF drag.
Quarterly Revenue
$845976000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+30.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-11815000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 41.2x, while the forward P/E is 24.4x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests robust growth expectations, consistent with the 30%+ revenue growth and analyst EPS estimates of $6.59 for the current year. Compared to the industry (Hardware, Equipment & Parts), TTMI trades at a premium: the trailing P/E of 41.2x is well above the sector average (not provided, but typically lower for hardware), and the PS ratio of 2.5x is also elevated. This premium is justified by superior growth (30%+ revenue growth vs. industry mid-single digits) and expanding margins, but it leaves little room for error. Historically, TTMI's trailing P/E has ranged from below 10x to over 120x over the past five years. The current 41.2x is above the median of around 20x seen in 2022-2024, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. However, the forward P/E of 24.4x is closer to historical norms, suggesting that if growth materializes, the valuation could be reasonable.
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~64x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: TTMI's negative free cash flow of -$85.1M in Q1 2026 and -$11.8M TTM is a concern, driven by heavy capex of $106.8M for capacity expansion. While the balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity of 0.63 and interest coverage of 7.0x, sustained negative FCF could pressure liquidity if growth slows. The net margin of 5.9% is improving but still low, leaving limited buffer for cost overruns or pricing pressure. Revenue concentration in the Commercial segment, particularly AI data centers, creates dependency on a single end-market; any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could significantly impact growth.
Market & Competitive Risks: TTMI trades at a trailing P/E of 41.2x, well above its historical median of ~20x, implying high growth expectations that leave little room for error. With a beta of 2.098, the stock is highly correlated to market sentiment and could suffer in a risk-off environment. The recent 35% monthly decline highlights vulnerability to sector rotation or macro shocks, such as the Fed's oil shock warnings. Competitive risks include potential margin compression from PCB commoditization and the need to continuously invest in advanced technologies to maintain leadership.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn where AI spending decelerates and margins compress, TTMI could see its P/E contract to historical lows near 10x. Applying a 10x P/E to estimated EPS of $6.59 gives a target of $65.90, representing a -50% decline from the current $132. The 52-week low of $39.20 implies a -70% downside, though that level was reached before the AI boom. A more realistic worst-case is a retest of the $90 level (recent support), implying a -32% loss from current prices.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Valuation risk: trailing P/E of 41.2x is high, and any growth deceleration could lead to multiple compression. (2) Financial risk: negative free cash flow of -$85.1M in Q1 due to heavy capex, which could pressure liquidity if growth slows. (3) Market risk: beta of 2.098 makes the stock highly sensitive to market downturns, as seen in the recent 35% monthly decline. (4) Concentration risk: revenue is heavily tied to AI data center spending, which could slow if macro conditions worsen. The most severe risk is a growth slowdown that triggers a P/E contraction to historical lows, potentially causing a 50%+ decline.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $180-$212 (in line with the analyst average of $212), assuming 20-25% revenue growth and margin expansion. The bull case (30% probability) targets $200-$220, driven by accelerating AI demand and successful European acquisitions. The bear case (20% probability) targets $90-$130, if AI spending slows and margins compress. The most likely scenario is the base case, supported by strong secular trends and analyst conviction. Investors should monitor the next earnings report for confirmation of growth momentum.
TTMI's trailing P/E of 41.2x is well above its historical median of ~20x and the industry average, suggesting the stock is overvalued on a trailing basis. However, the forward P/E of 24.4x is more reasonable, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.19 (based on forward P/E and estimated EPS growth) indicates the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the sector, TTMI's PS ratio of 2.5x is elevated but justified by its 30%+ revenue growth. Overall, the valuation is fair if growth materializes, but it leaves little room for disappointment.
TTMI presents a compelling risk/reward for growth investors, with 30.4% YoY revenue growth, expanding margins, and a 60.6% upside to the analyst average target of $212. However, the stock is highly volatile (beta 2.098) and recently fell 34.9% in one month, so it is not suitable for risk-averse investors. The forward P/E of 24.4x is reasonable given expected EPS growth to $6.59, but the trailing P/E of 41.2x leaves little room for error. For investors with a 12-month horizon and high risk tolerance, TTMI is a good buy at current levels, but they should be prepared for potential drawdowns of 30% or more in adverse scenarios.
TTMI is best suited for long-term growth investors with a minimum holding period of 12-24 months, given its high volatility (beta 2.098) and reliance on secular AI trends. The stock's recent 35% decline illustrates the risk of short-term trading, as sharp pullbacks can occur even in a strong uptrend. Long-term investors can benefit from the company's expanding margins and revenue growth, which should drive earnings and potentially justify a higher valuation. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the stock's volatility, but the risk of significant losses is high. The company does not pay a dividend, so total return depends entirely on price appreciation.
