Vistra
VST
$157.98
+2.04%
Vistra Corp. is one of the largest independent power producers and retail energy providers in the United States, operating a diversified portfolio of 44 gigawatts of generation capacity including natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, while also serving 5 million retail electricity customers across 20 states. The company emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016 and has since established itself as a dominant player in the competitive power markets, particularly in Texas where it serves nearly one-third of all electricity consumers. The current investor narrative revolves around Vistra's strategic positioning as a direct beneficiary of surging electricity demand from AI data centers, with recent news highlighting its nuclear and natural gas assets as critical infrastructure for the AI power supercycle, though the stock has faced significant pullback from its 52-week high amid broader market rotation and regulatory uncertainty.…
VST
Vistra
$157.98
Related headlines
VST 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Vistra's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $205.37 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$205.37
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$126 - $205
Analyst target range
Vistra is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish as recent ratings include multiple Overweight and Buy actions from firms like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Jefferies, UBS, and BMO Capital. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $16.68, with a low of $12.37 and a high of $20.49, while the average revenue estimate is $26.36 billion, implying a significant rebound from current levels. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the forward P/E of 13.98x and average EPS estimate of $16.68, the implied target is approximately $233, representing 54% upside from the current price of $151.05, though the range of EPS estimates ($12.37 to $20.49) suggests a wide dispersion in analyst expectations, with the low target implying a price of $173 (14% upside) and the high target implying $286 (89% upside). The recent upgrade from Jefferies (from Hold to Buy) and consistent Overweight ratings from major banks signal growing conviction in the AI-driven growth story, but the wide spread in estimates indicates high uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of earnings recovery.
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VST Technical Analysis
Vistra is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -19.23% and the stock currently trading at $151.05, which is approximately 69% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $132.66 and high of $219.82). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the stock is in a corrective phase, potentially offering a value opportunity if the fundamental thesis holds, but also carries the risk of further downside if the downtrend continues. The 52-week high of $219.82 represents a key resistance level, while the 52-week low of $132.66 serves as critical support, and the stock's beta of 1.409 indicates it is 41% more volatile than the S&P 500, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
1.41
1.41x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-38.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$133-$220
Price range past year
Annual Return
-19.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.0% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +2.1% | +10.6% |
| 6m | -5.0% | +8.3% |
| 1y | -19.8% | +20.4% |
| ytd | -4.4% | +10.2% |
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VST Fundamental Analysis
Vistra's revenue trajectory has been highly volatile, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $2.338 billion, a dramatic 68.24% decline year-over-year from $7.362 billion in Q4 2024, driven by lower power prices and hedging impacts. However, on a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue totaled $14.73 billion, and the company's retail segment contributed $2.076 billion in Q4, while the Texas segment added $1.157 billion, highlighting the importance of its retail and Texas operations. The company swung to a net income of $233 million in Q4 2025 from a loss of $268 million in Q1 2025, but the gross margin was deeply negative at -55.65% for the quarter due to mark-to-market losses on hedging, though the operating margin improved to 7.87% on a trailing basis. Vistra's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.99, indicating high leverage, but the company generated $640 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, and its ROE of 18.47% reflects strong returns on equity despite the debt load, though the current ratio of 0.78 suggests potential liquidity concerns.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-68.24%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-55.65%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$640000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is VST Overvalued?
Given that Vistra has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio, with a trailing P/E of 73x and a forward P/E of 13.98x, indicating that the market expects a sharp earnings recovery in the coming year. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that current earnings are depressed and the market is pricing in a significant rebound, which aligns with the AI-driven demand narrative. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (based on sector data), Vistra's trailing P/E of 73x represents a 232% premium, but its forward P/E of 13.98x is at a 36% discount, implying that the market expects Vistra to grow earnings faster than peers. Historically, Vistra's trailing P/E has ranged from 3.3x to 294.7x over the past five years, and the current 73x is near the higher end of that range, suggesting that the stock is pricing in optimistic expectations for future earnings growth, which could be justified by the AI power demand catalyst but also leaves little room for disappointment.
PE
73.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -178x~295x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
