Whirlpool Corp.
WHR
$30.11
-0.66%
Whirlpool Corp. is a global manufacturer and marketer of major kitchen and laundry appliances — refrigerators, washing machines, cooktops, ovens, and freezers — sold under a portfolio of brands including Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Maytag, Amana, Jenn-Air, Brastemp, and Consul, organized into MDA North America (its largest profit engine), MDA Europe, MDA Latin America, and SDA Global. With roughly 41,000 employees and a 70-year NYSE listing history, Whirlpool is a scaled incumbent in a mature, cyclical, and intensely price-competitive Consumer Cyclical/Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances industry, competing against Asian and European manufacturers as well as big-box retail private labels. The current investor narrative has turned sharply negative: a dividend cut, a guidance reduction, and a Q3 2026 swing to a large net loss tied to tariff-driven cost pressure and weak consumer demand have reframed the stock from a stable income holding into a distressed turnaround and balance-sheet deleveraging story. Attention now centers on whether management can stabilize North American margins, restore free cash flow, and defend its dividend and investment-grade profile amid a soft housing cycle and trade-policy overhang.…
WHR
Whirlpool Corp.
$30.11
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy WHR Today?
Rating: Hold (with a speculative-turnaround caveat). The core thesis is that WHR is a deeply impaired, cheap-for-a-reason asset whose 0.26x PS and 1.48x PB already discount a great deal of bad news, but whose -$237 million Q3 2026 net loss, 2.88x debt-to-equity, 0.76 current ratio, and -$81 million trailing free cash flow leave no margin of safety for a Buy. The analyst tape reinforces caution: only 3 analysts cover the name, with RBC at Underperform, Stifel at Sell, Wells Fargo and Citigroup at Equal Weight/Neutral, Goldman at Neutral, and no Buy ratings visible, so there is no consensus target to anchor an upside case.\n\nSupporting evidence is mixed but tilts toward patience rather than purchase. On valuation, PS of 0.26x sits far below the 1.0x-1.5x the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector typically commands, and PB of 1.48x is well under the sector's historical 2x-3x band, while EV/EBITDA of 9.67x is roughly in line with the 8x-10x sector norm. But the fundamentals behind that discount are deteriorating: Q3 2026 revenue fell 8.8% year-over-year to $3.677 billion, gross margin compressed to 12.86% from 14.63%, operating income collapsed to $4 million (0.11% margin), and the trailing net margin of 2.04% is far below the sector's mid-single-digit profitability. The one genuine green shoot is free cash flow, which flipped to +$28 million in Q3 2026 after -$895 million in Q1 and -$214 million in Q2, and the stock's +4.6% one-month move against SPY's -5.0% (+9.6 points of relative strength) suggests the $26.45 October low is holding for now.\n\nThe biggest risks that could invalidate even a Hold are a failure to sustain Q3's positive free cash flow, a second dividend cut or elimination (the 94.3% payout ratio against a 7.4% yield is not covered by cash flow), and another dilutive capital raise after the $1.081 billion equity issuance that lifted shares from 55.9 million to 65.5 million. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if trailing free cash flow turns sustainably positive and North American gross margin recovers above roughly 15%, or if the stock reclaims the $37-$40 supply zone on volume; it would downgrade to Sell on a break below the $26.45 52-week low or a further guidance cut. On balance the stock is cheap relative to its own history and peers but fairly-to-fully valued relative to its impaired earnings power — a value trap until cash generation proves durable, not a bargain.
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WHR 12-Month Price Forecast
WHR is a cheap, deeply out-of-favor appliance manufacturer whose 0.26x sales multiple and 1.48x book multiple sit at multi-year lows, but the discount reflects real deterioration rather than an oversight: a -$237 million Q3 2026 net loss, 0.11% operating margin, 2.88x debt-to-equity, and a 7.4% dividend yield that is not covered by free cash flow. The single most important data point is the Q3 free-cash-flow swing to +$28 million, which, if sustained, would remove the central bear argument and could drive a re-rating toward the $37-$40 supply zone; if it reverses, the $26.45 low is likely to break. Analyst sentiment offers no support — all visible ratings are Hold or Sell with only 3 analysts covering the name, so price discovery is thin and headline risk around earnings and trade policy is elevated. I would upgrade to bullish if trailing FCF turns sustainably positive and gross margin recovers above 15%, and downgrade to bearish on a break below $26.45 or another dividend cut. At $30.54 the risk/reward is roughly balanced, favoring patience over accumulation.
Wall Street consensus
Coverage is thin and cautious: only 3 analysts contribute to the consensus estimate set, with FY EPS estimates averaging $1.505 (range $1.472-$1.552) on average revenue of $15.70 billion (range $15.44-$16.08 billion). The institutional ratings tape is uniformly defensive — RBC Capital at Underperform, Wells Fargo and Citigroup at Equal Weight/Neutral, Goldman Sachs at Neutral, and Stifel downgrading from Hold to Sell on October 28, 2026, alongside Longbow Research cutting from Buy to Neutral on October 19 — with no Buy ratings visible in the recent record. The consensus leans bearish-to-neutral, and while a formal average price target is not provided in the data, the absence of any positive rating and the cluster of post-earnings reiterations at Hold/Sell imply limited conviction in near-term upside.\n\nThe target range implied by the EPS dispersion ($1.472-$1.552, a tight ~5% spread) signals analysts agree on the depressed earnings trajectory but disagree on the multiple, and the recent downgrade pattern — Stifel to Sell, Longbow off Buy — points to deteriorating sentiment rather than stabilization. The high end of expectations would require margin recovery in North America, tariff relief, and a housing-cycle rebound to drive multiple expansion off a 0.26x PS base; the low end prices in continued margin compression, further share dilution, and potential dividend elimination. With only 3 analysts and a stock down 55% over a year, coverage is insufficient for robust price discovery, which typically amplifies volatility and leaves the shares vulnerable to headline-driven gaps around earnings and trade-policy news.
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Bulls vs Bears: WHR Investment Factors
The bear case currently carries stronger evidence: WHR is losing money (-$237 million in Q3 2026), revenue is shrinking 8.8% year-over-year, leverage is 2.88x debt-to-equity with a 0.76 current ratio, and every visible analyst rating is Hold or Sell. The bull case rests almost entirely on valuation — 0.26x sales and 1.48x book are at multi-year lows — plus a tentative one-month relative-strength swing of +9.6 points and a single quarter of positive free cash flow (+$28 million). The single most important tension is whether Q3's positive FCF and the $26.45 low mark a genuine cash-flow inflection or merely a pause before further deterioration; if FCF turns sustainably positive and North American margins stabilize, the 0.26x sales multiple is deeply mispriced, but if losses widen again the low multiple is a value trap and the dividend and investment-grade profile come under renewed pressure.
Bullish
- Deep asset discount at 0.26x sales: WHR trades at a PS of 0.26x versus a Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector that typically commands 1.0x-1.5x, and PB of 1.48x versus a historical sector range of 2x-3x. Even a partial re-rating toward 0.4x-0.5x sales on $15.7 billion of consensus FY revenue would imply a market cap of $6.3-$7.9 billion versus roughly $4.0 billion today.
- Momentum decelerating off capitulation low: The stock is up 4.6% over the past month versus a -5.0% decline for SPY, a +9.6 percentage-point relative-strength swing, and the 3-month change of -29.4% is materially less bad than the -55.4% one-year decline. The October 26 low of $26.45 has so far held, and the bounce to $32.65 on November 4 suggests sellers are losing control near the bottom of the range.
- Q3 free cash flow turned positive: After burning -$895 million in Q1 2026 and -$214 million in Q2 2026, Q3 2026 free cash flow flipped to +$28 million, the first positive quarter of the year. If that inflection persists, the TTM FCF figure of -$81 million could cross into positive territory within one to two quarters, removing the single biggest bear argument.
- Balance sheet liquidity backstop: The company raised $1.081 billion of common stock in Q1 2026, lifting shares outstanding from 55.9 million to 65.5 million, which shored up liquidity during the cash crunch. Q3 2026 EBITDA of $95 million and interest expense of $102 million show coverage is thin but the capital raise bought time to execute the deleveraging plan.
Bearish
- Profitability has collapsed into losses: Q3 2026 produced a net loss of -$237 million (-$3.80 per diluted share) versus net income of $73 million a year earlier, with operating income of just $4 million (0.11% operating margin). Gross margin compressed to 12.86% from 14.63%, and the $102 million of interest expense plus $116 million of net other expenses overwhelmed a thin $473 million gross profit.
- Revenue declining 8.8% with no floor: Q3 2026 revenue of $3.677 billion fell 8.8% year-over-year from $4.033 billion, extending declines from $3.517 billion in Q2 and $3.273 billion in Q1. The core refrigeration ($1.088 billion) and laundry ($1.084 billion) categories are the most housing-cycle-exposed, and consensus FY revenue of $15.70 billion assumes stabilization that has not yet appeared.
- Leverage and negative working capital: Debt-to-equity stands at 2.88x, the current ratio is 0.76 (below 1.0, meaning negative working capital), and total debt to capitalization is roughly 67%-74%. Free cash flow is -$81 million on a trailing basis, leaving external financing dependence as the key vulnerability.
- Dividend not covered by cash flow: The payout ratio is 94.3% against a 7.4% dividend yield, meaning the dividend consumes nearly all earnings and is not covered by free cash flow. A dividend cut has already occurred in 2026, and further reduction or elimination remains a live risk given the -$81 million TTM FCF.
WHR Technical Analysis
WHR is in a severe, sustained downtrend: the stock is down 55.4% over the past year and 59.0% year-to-date, with a maximum drawdown of -71.5% from its peak. At $30.54, the shares sit near the very bottom of their 52-week range — roughly 4% above the 52-week low of about $26.45 (set October 26, 2026) and approximately 33% below the 52-week high of roughly $45.19 (August 5, 2026) — a positioning that signals persistent distribution and a falling-knife profile rather than a value base. Relative strength confirms the damage: -65.0% versus SPY over one year and -66.8% YTD, meaning the stock has lost roughly two-thirds of its relative value against the market.\n\nShort-term momentum is the one constructive data point: the stock is up 4.6% over the past month versus a -5.0% decline for SPY, a +9.6 percentage-point relative-strength swing, and the 3-month change of -29.4% is less bad than the 1-year trend, suggesting the rate of decline is decelerating. The recent sequence — a low of $26.45 on October 26 followed by a rally to $32.65 on November 4 and a pullback to $30.54 — looks like an early mean-reversion bounce off capitulation lows rather than a confirmed reversal, and the -3.2% single-day drop on the latest print shows sellers remain active. This 1-month/1-year divergence is best read as a temporary oversold rebound within a primary downtrend until price reclaims the September breakdown zone.\n\nKey technical levels are well defined: support rests at the $26.45 52-week low, with a breakdown below that level opening the door to fresh all-time-low territory and likely triggering further momentum-driven selling; resistance sits at the $45.19 52-week high, with intermediate supply near $37-$40 where the stock repeatedly failed in August and September. A decisive break above $40 would be the first evidence of a trend change, while a failure at $32-$33 would confirm the bounce as a lower high. Volatility is extreme — a -71.5% max drawdown and a 3.2% single-session move — and while beta is not provided, the stock's realized volatility and 3.2 million-share volume imply materially higher risk than the broad market, arguing for smaller position sizing and wider stops.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-71.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
—
Price range past year
Annual Return
-54.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WHR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.3% | -2.4% |
| 3m | -29.7% | -2.3% |
| 6m | -24.7% | +2.8% |
| 1y | -54.4% | +11.3% |
| ytd | -59.6% | +11.4% |
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WHR Fundamental Analysis
The revenue trajectory is deteriorating: Q3 2026 revenue of $3.677 billion fell 8.8% year-over-year from $4.033 billion, extending a string of declines from $3.517 billion in Q2 2026 and $3.273 billion in Q1 2026, with the Q4 2025 quarter at $4.098 billion marking the last comparable high. Within the product mix, refrigeration ($1.088 billion) and laundry ($1.084 billion) are the largest contributors, followed by cooking ($902 million), dishwashing ($276 million), other products/services ($195 million), and spare parts and warranties ($131 million), meaning the core North American big-ticket categories most exposed to the housing cycle are carrying the load. The 8.8% decline implies volume and price/mix pressure rather than a one-off, and with consensus FY revenue of $15.70 billion against a soft demand backdrop, the growth case currently rests on stabilization rather than expansion.\n\nProfitability has broken down: Q3 2026 produced a net loss of -$237 million (-$3.80 per diluted share) versus net income of $88 million in Q2 2026 and $73 million in the year-ago Q3 2025, with gross margin compressing to 12.86% from 14.63% a year earlier and 12.57% in Q2 2026. Operating income collapsed to just $4 million (0.11% operating margin) as $102 million of interest expense and $116 million of net other expenses overwhelmed a thin gross profit of $473 million, while the trailing net margin of 2.04% and gross margin of 15.20% sit well below the 16%-20% gross margins the appliance industry historically commands. The loss is not narrowing — it is widening sharply — and the 4.68% operating margin and 2.58% EBITDA margin in Q3 confirm that cost inflation, tariffs, and fixed-cost deleveraging are crushing the P&L despite $428 million of SG&A discipline.\n\nThe balance sheet is the central risk: debt-to-equity stands at 2.88x, the current ratio is 0.76 (below 1.0, indicating negative working capital), and total debt to capitalization is roughly 67%-74% depending on the period, leaving little cushion. Free cash flow is negative at -$81 million on a trailing basis, with Q1 2026 alone burning -$895 million of FCF and Q2 2026 -$214 million before Q3 2026 turned modestly positive at +$28 million; the company funded the Q1 cash gap with $1.081 billion of common stock issuance, a highly dilutive move that lifted shares outstanding from 55.9 million to 65.5 million. ROE of 11.6% is flattered by leverage rather than underlying returns, and with a payout ratio of 94.3% against a 7.4% dividend yield, the dividend is barely covered by earnings and not covered by free cash flow — external financing dependence remains the key vulnerability.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.7B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
-8.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
12.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-81000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WHR Overvalued?
Because trailing net income remains positive at the TTM level (EPS of $0.078, trailing PE of 12.7x), the PE ratio is the primary metric, but it is a misleading one: the trailing figure is distorted by a near-zero earnings base, and the forward PE of -0.06x (negative, reflecting expected losses) and PEG of -0.06 make clear the earnings-based multiple is not meaningful. The more informative lens is price-to-sales at 0.26x and price-to-book at 1.48x, both of which suggest the market is pricing WHR as a deeply impaired, low-expectation asset rather than a going-concern growth story.\n\nAgainst the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances industry, WHR trades at a steep discount: PS of 0.26x versus a sector that typically commands 1.0x-1.5x, EV/EBITDA of 9.67x versus a sector norm nearer 8x-10x (roughly in line), and PB of 1.48x versus a historical sector range of 2x-3x. The discount is not a mispricing anomaly — it is justified by negative free cash flow, a 2.88x debt-to-equity ratio, a 0.76 current ratio, and a 2.04% net margin that is far below the sector's mid-single-digit profitability, so the stock is cheap for fundamental reasons rather than overlooked quality.\n\nHistorically, WHR's own valuation band has compressed dramatically: PS has fallen from 1.53x at year-end 2024 and 1.48x in Q3 2024 to 0.26x today, while PB has collapsed from 2.36x at year-end 2024 and 2.84x at year-end 2023 to 1.48x, and the PE has swung from 9.3x in Q4 2025 to 12.7x on a collapsing earnings base. The stock is at or near the bottom of its multi-year valuation range on every metric, which historically would flag a value opportunity — but with negative forward earnings, negative FCF, and a dividend that consumes nearly all earnings, the low multiple reflects genuine fundamental deterioration and balance-sheet risk rather than a margin of safety.
PE
12.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
24.3x
Industry PE ~24.3x*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are acute and quantifiable. Q3 2026 swung to a -$237 million net loss with operating income of just $4 million (0.11% margin) as gross margin compressed to 12.86% from 14.63% a year earlier, and the loss is widening rather than narrowing. Debt-to-equity of 2.88x, a current ratio of 0.76, and total debt to capitalization of roughly 67%-74% leave little cushion, while trailing free cash flow of -$81 million and a 94.3% payout ratio mean the 7.4% dividend is not covered by cash generation. Revenue concentration in housing-cycle-exposed big-ticket categories — refrigeration at $1.088 billion and laundry at $1.084 billion of Q3's $3.677 billion — amplifies earnings volatility, and the $1.081 billion equity raise that lifted shares from 55.9 million to 65.5 million is direct evidence of external financing dependence. Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and sentiment. The stock is down 55.4% over one year and 59.0% year-to-date with a -71.5% maximum drawdown, and relative strength versus SPY is -65.0% over one year, confirming persistent distribution. All visible analyst ratings are defensive — RBC Underperform, Wells Fargo and Citigroup Equal Weight/Neutral, Goldman Neutral, Stifel Sell, Longbow Neutral — with no Buy ratings, and only 3 analysts covering the name, which amplifies headline-driven gaps around earnings and trade-policy news. Tariff-driven cost pressure and a soft housing cycle are the explicit drivers of the guidance cut and dividend reduction, and big-box retail private labels plus Asian and European manufacturers cap pricing power in a mature, cyclical industry. The worst-case scenario is a chain in which Q4 2026 fails to sustain Q3's +$28 million free cash flow, North American margins compress further, and the dividend is cut again or eliminated, forcing another dilutive capital raise. In that path the stock would likely retest and break the October 26 low of $26.45, opening fresh all-time-low territory; from the current $30.54 that is roughly -13% to the 52-week low, and a break below it with momentum selling could extend toward the -71.5% max-drawdown profile, implying a further -25% to -35% downside in a severe scenario.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: Q3 2026 produced a -$237 million net loss with operating income of just $4 million, debt-to-equity is 2.88x, the current ratio is 0.76, and trailing free cash flow is -$81 million, leaving the company dependent on external financing after a $1.081 billion equity raise that lifted shares from 55.9 million to 65.5 million. Second is the dividend: a 94.3% payout ratio against a 7.4% yield means the payout is not covered by cash flow, and a cut has already occurred in 2026, so further reduction or elimination is a live risk. Third is competitive and cyclical: revenue fell 8.8% year-over-year to $3.677 billion with gross margin compressed to 12.86%, and the housing-cycle-exposed refrigeration ($1.088 billion) and laundry ($1.084 billion) categories carry the load against big-box private labels and Asian and European manufacturers. Fourth is sentiment and liquidity: all visible analyst ratings are Hold or Sell with only 3 analysts covering the name, and the stock is down 55.4% over one year with a -71.5% maximum drawdown, so headline-driven gaps around earnings and trade policy are amplified.
The 12-month outlook splits into three scenarios. The base case carries 55% probability with a $28-$34 target range, assuming revenue tracks the $15.70 billion consensus, EPS lands near the $1.505 average, and free cash flow hovers around breakeven with the dividend held. The bear case at 25% probability targets $18-$26, driven by Q4 free cash flow turning negative again, another dividend cut, or a break below the $26.45 low that extends toward the -71.5% max-drawdown profile — roughly -25% to -35% from $30.54. The bull case at 20% probability targets $40-$45, requiring tariff relief, North American gross margin recovering above 15%, and sustained positive free cash flow that re-rates the 0.26x sales multiple toward 0.4x-0.5x. The base case is most likely because it requires only stabilization rather than improvement, and its key assumption is that Q3 2026's +$28 million free cash flow marks a durable inflection rather than a one-quarter blip.
On headline multiples WHR looks deeply undervalued: price-to-sales of 0.26x versus a Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector that typically commands 1.0x-1.5x, price-to-book of 1.48x versus a historical 2x-3x band, and EV/EBITDA of 9.67x roughly in line with the 8x-10x sector norm. But the earnings-based metrics are distorted — trailing PE of 12.7x rests on a near-zero $0.078 EPS base, and the forward PE of -0.06x is negative because losses are expected. Against its own history the compression is dramatic: PS has fallen from 1.53x at year-end 2024 to 0.26x, and PB from 2.36x to 1.48x. The market is therefore pricing WHR as an impaired, cash-burning asset with balance-sheet risk rather than an overlooked quality name, and that discount is justified by negative free cash flow, 2.88x debt-to-equity, and a 2.04% net margin. The stock is cheap relative to peers and its own history but fairly-to-fully valued relative to its impaired earnings power — undervalued only if the cash-flow inflection proves durable.
From a risk/reward standpoint, WHR is not a compelling buy today but is not an obvious short either. The stock trades at $30.54, roughly 4% above its 52-week low of $26.45 and about 33% below its 52-week high of $45.19, and the valuation is extreme at 0.26x sales and 1.48x book — but those multiples are backed by a -$237 million Q3 2026 net loss, -$81 million of trailing free cash flow, and a 94.3% dividend payout ratio that is not covered by cash generation. Analyst sentiment offers no support: all visible ratings are Hold or Sell across only 3 analysts, with no Buy ratings and no formal consensus target to anchor upside. The biggest downside risk is a break below $26.45, which would imply roughly -13% and open fresh all-time-low territory. It could be a good buy only for speculative, deep-value investors with high risk tolerance who size positions small and wait for confirmation that Q3's +$28 million free cash flow is sustained and North American gross margin recovers above 15%; for most investors, patience is the better course.
WHR is best suited to a patient, long-horizon value approach rather than short-term trading, but only for investors who can tolerate substantial volatility. The stock is in a mature, cyclical industry with declining revenue (-8.8% year-over-year), negative trailing free cash flow, and a 7.4% dividend yield that is not covered by cash flow, so there is no reliable income or growth case for a core long-term holding. Volatility is extreme — a -71.5% maximum drawdown, a -3.2% single-session move on the latest print, and 3.2 million shares of volume — and with only 3 analysts covering the name, headline risk around earnings and trade policy is elevated, which argues against short-term trading on momentum. A concrete minimum holding period of 12-18 months is appropriate to allow two to three earnings cycles to confirm whether the Q3 cash-flow inflection is durable and whether North American margins recover above 15%; position sizing should be small given the binary nature of the turnaround thesis.