Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$99.38
-4.21%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. is a global operator of luxury integrated casino resorts, primarily in the high-end gaming and hospitality markets of Macau and Las Vegas, with a property in Massachusetts. The company is a premier player in the luxury segment, known for its high-quality properties and focus on affluent customers, which differentiates it from mass-market competitors. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the ongoing recovery and growth trajectory of its Macau operations, which historically contributed a significant portion of its EBITDA, alongside the performance of its Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor assets. Recent financial trends and news highlight a market sensitive to macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate expectations, which influence consumer discretionary spending in its core markets.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$99.38
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. Wynn Resorts presents a balanced but risky proposition, where the potential for an earnings recovery is priced in, but significant operational headwinds and financial leverage create substantial downside risk. The unanimous bullish analyst consensus and forward P/E of 19.53x suggest optimism, but this is counterbalanced by severe margin compression and negative shareholder equity.
Supporting Evidence: The forward P/E of 19.53x, based on estimated EPS of $6.12, appears reasonable if the company achieves its targets, but the trailing P/E of 38.12x is elevated. Revenue growth has slowed to 1.48% YoY, and profitability has collapsed, with net margin falling from 15.06% to 4.59%. However, strong free cash flow generation of $692 million and a healthy current ratio of 1.63 provide financial flexibility. The stock trades at a 1.75x Price-to-Sales ratio, which is not excessive for the sector, but the EV/EBITDA of 13.24x is moderate.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are the failure to arrest margin erosion and a macroeconomic slowdown impacting high-end consumer spending. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if gross margins stabilize above 35% and forward EPS estimates are consistently met or raised, signaling the recovery is on track. It would downgrade to a Sell if revenue growth turns negative or if the stock breaks below key technical support at $95, threatening a retest of the 52-week low. Relative to its own volatile history and sector peers, the stock is fairly valued based on forward estimates but overvalued on trailing earnings, placing the burden of proof on execution.
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WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment thesis for WYNN hinges entirely on the execution of a margin and earnings recovery that the market has already partially priced in. The neutral stance reflects the high uncertainty between the bullish analyst consensus and the bearish fundamental deterioration in profitability. Confidence is medium because the wide range of EPS estimates ($5.29 to $7.30) underscores the lack of clarity. The stance would upgrade to bullish on concrete evidence of margin stabilization in upcoming quarters, supported by Macau volume data. It would downgrade to bearish if the next earnings report shows continued margin contraction or a guidance cut, validating the short sellers' thesis.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $129.19 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$129.19
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$80 - $129
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 10 analysts, and the institutional sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with recent actions from firms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Mizuho, Stifel, and Wells Fargo all maintaining Buy, Overweight, or Outperform ratings. This consensus indicates strong institutional conviction in the company's recovery story and long-term prospects. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the strong buy-side consensus implies an expectation of upside from the current price level. The range of analyst EPS estimates for the coming period is from $5.29 to $7.30, with an average of $6.12, indicating a high degree of uncertainty about the pace of the earnings recovery. The high-end target likely assumes a faster-than-expected rebound in Macau volumes, successful cost management, and strong performance in Las Vegas, while the low-end may factor in potential macroeconomic headwinds or competitive pressures. The tight clustering of recent analyst actions (all maintains) suggests a period of consensus stability, but the wide EPS forecast range signals underlying debate about the magnitude of the earnings rebound.
Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
The bull case is anchored by strong analyst conviction in an earnings rebound, robust free cash flow, and a recent technical bounce from oversold conditions. The bear case is supported by severe margin compression, an elevated trailing valuation, and a clear slowdown in revenue growth. Currently, the bearish evidence holds more weight due to the concrete, deteriorating fundamentals of collapsing margins and negative shareholder equity, which outweigh the forward-looking optimism of analysts. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company can successfully execute a margin recovery to meet the high forward earnings estimates of $6.12, thereby justifying the current forward P/E of 19.53x. If margins continue to compress, the earnings rebound will fail to materialize, exposing the stock's high trailing multiple.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $692.2 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing significant internal funding for operations, dividends, and growth. This robust cash generation supports the 1.40% dividend yield and reduces reliance on external financing.
- Analyst Consensus Bullish with High EPS Growth: All 10 covering analysts maintain Buy/Overweight ratings, indicating strong institutional conviction. The average forward EPS estimate of $6.12 implies a forward P/E of 19.53x, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery from the trailing EPS of $0.03.
- Luxury Brand Positioning in Key Markets: Wynn's focus on the high-end Macau and Las Vegas markets provides a defensible niche. The company's asset quality and premium customer base differentiate it from mass-market competitors, supporting pricing power and resilience.
- Technical Rebound from Oversold Levels: The stock has rebounded 11.34% in the past month and is trading 78% of the way up from its 52-week low of $87.11, suggesting a potential trend reversal. This short-term momentum, with a +10.60% relative strength vs. the S&P 500, indicates strong buying interest at lower levels.
Bearish
- Severe Profitability Compression: Gross margin collapsed to 31.96% in Q4 2025 from 43.68% a year ago, and net margin fell to 4.59% from 15.06%. This dramatic margin erosion, despite modest 1.48% revenue growth, indicates significant operational cost pressures and competitive challenges.
- Elevated Trailing Valuation & Negative Equity: The trailing P/E of 38.12x is high for a cyclical consumer stock, and the negative ROE of -118.82% and negative debt-to-equity ratio (-44.62) reflect a strained balance sheet with negative shareholder equity. This financial structure increases risk in a downturn.
- Macro-Sensitive Revenue & Slowing Growth: Revenue growth decelerated to 1.48% YoY in Q4 2025, signaling the post-pandemic recovery has normalized. The stock's beta of 0.984 shows it is highly correlated to broader market swings, making it vulnerable to consumer discretionary spending cuts in a weaker economy.
- Persistent Long-Term Downtrend: The stock is down 17.52% over the past six months and has underperformed the S&P 500 by 27.24 percentage points over that period. This weak intermediate-term trend suggests the recent bounce may be a bear market rally within a larger correction.
WYNN Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the past six months, with a -17.52% price change, but has shown a significant short-term rebound, gaining 11.34% over the past month. As of the latest close of $105.53, the stock is trading approximately 78% of the way up from its 52-week low of $87.11 towards its 52-week high of $134.72, indicating it is recovering from oversold levels but remains well off its recent highs. This positioning suggests the stock is attempting to find a bottom after a significant correction, presenting a potential value opportunity if the recovery momentum holds, though it remains vulnerable to a retest of lower levels given the broader downtrend. Recent momentum has been strongly positive, with a 1-month gain of 11.34% sharply contrasting the 6-month loss of -17.52%, signaling a potential trend reversal or a significant bear market rally. This divergence is further evidenced by a 1-month relative strength of +10.60 against the S&P 500's +0.74%, indicating strong outperformance in the near term. However, the 3-month performance of +5.55% underperforms the S&P 500's +15.14% by nearly 10 percentage points, highlighting that while the recent bounce is vigorous, the stock's intermediate-term trend remains weak relative to the broader market. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $87.11, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $134.72. A sustained breakout above the recent trading range near $110 would be necessary to signal a more durable recovery, while a breakdown below the $95-$100 zone could see a retest of the 52-week low. The stock's beta of 0.984 indicates volatility roughly in line with the broader market, which is notable for a cyclical consumer name, suggesting its recent swings are more company or sector-specific rather than a function of exaggerated market beta.
Beta
0.98
0.98x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$92-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+8.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.5% | -2.2% |
| 3m | +2.9% | +15.8% |
| 6m | -20.1% | +6.4% |
| 1y | +8.1% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -18.9% | +7.7% |
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WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.866 billion representing a year-over-year increase of 1.48%. However, this marks a deceleration from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters of 2024, and segment data shows the Casino segment, at $1.143 billion, remains the dominant but slower-growing driver, while non-gaming segments like Food and Beverage ($265M) and Occupancy ($305M) contribute smaller portions. The trajectory suggests a normalization post-pandemic recovery, with growth now dependent on stable macroeconomic conditions and high-end consumer spending in its key markets. The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $100 million and a net margin of 4.59%, but profitability has compressed significantly from the year-ago quarter's net margin of 15.06%. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 31.96%, down from 43.68% in Q4 2024, indicating substantial margin pressure, likely from increased operational costs and a competitive environment. The operating margin of 16.21% remains healthy for the industry, but the year-over-year decline in both gross and net margins points to challenges in converting revenue growth to the bottom line. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 1.63, indicating good short-term liquidity, but a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62, which is an accounting artifact stemming from negative shareholder equity. The company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $692.2 million, providing strong internal funding for operations, capital expenditures, and its dividend, which yields 1.40%. The return on equity is deeply negative at -118.82%, a result of the negative equity base, but the return on assets is positive at 5.60%, showing the company is generating a profit from its asset base.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.31%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$692220000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 38.12x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 19.53x, based on estimated EPS of $6.12. This wide gap implies the market is pricing in a substantial earnings recovery, with forward earnings expected to be more than triple the trailing twelve-month EPS of approximately $0.03. Compared to sector averages, Wynn's trailing P/E of 38.12x is likely at a premium to the broader Consumer Cyclical/Gaming sector, which often trades at lower multiples due to higher volatility and capital intensity. Its Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.75x and EV/EBITDA of 13.24x provide alternative valuation lenses; the EV/EBITDA multiple is in a more moderate range, suggesting the market values its operating cash flow generation despite earnings volatility. The premium is partially justified by Wynn's luxury brand positioning and asset quality, but also reflects expectations for a robust earnings rebound. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been volatile, with the trailing P/E ratio fluctuating dramatically from negative figures during pandemic-era losses to as high as 255.8x in early 2023. The current trailing P/E of 38.12x is above the levels seen in late 2024 (8.41x) but below the peaks of 2023, indicating the market is pricing in improved, but not peak, profitability. The forward P/E of 19.53x sits near the lower end of its recent historical range, suggesting that if the company meets its earnings estimates, the stock could be considered reasonably valued relative to its own history.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -82x~256x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Wynn faces significant margin pressure, with gross margin contracting by nearly 12 percentage points year-over-year to 31.96% in Q4 2025. This erosion directly impacts profitability, as net income fell to $100 million from $277 million a year ago. The company's balance sheet shows negative shareholder equity, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62 and a deeply negative ROE of -118.82%, indicating a fragile financial structure that amplifies risk. While strong free cash flow of $692 million provides a buffer, revenue growth has slowed to just 1.48% YoY, raising concerns about its ability to grow into its valuation.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 38.12x is at a premium to many cyclical consumer peers, creating valuation compression risk if earnings disappoint. As a luxury gaming operator, Wynn is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions affecting high-end consumer spending; its beta of 0.984 confirms its correlation with broader market swings. Recent news highlights sensitivity to inflation and interest rate expectations, which could dampen discretionary travel and gaming budgets. Furthermore, the company's heavy reliance on Macau (a historically volatile market) and Las Vegas exposes it to regional economic shifts and competitive intensity.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe recession coupled with a downturn in Macau's VIP segment could trigger a chain of events where revenue declines, margins compress further, and the anticipated earnings rebound fails. This could lead to multiple compression and a retest of the 52-week low of $87.11. From the current price of $105.53, this represents a downside of approximately -17.5%. A more extreme scenario, factoring in the stock's historical max drawdown of -28.92%, could see losses approach -30% if sentiment turns sharply negative and the forward earnings multiple contracts below 15x.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Financial Risk: Negative shareholder equity and a deeply negative ROE (-118.82%) indicate a leveraged, fragile balance sheet structure. 2) Operational Risk: Severe gross margin compression (down nearly 12 pp YoY) threatens the core earnings recovery thesis. 3) Macroeconomic & Market Risk: The stock's beta of 0.984 and reliance on discretionary luxury spending make it vulnerable to economic downturns and higher interest rates. 4) Execution Risk: The company must hit high forward EPS estimates ($6.12 avg) to justify its valuation; any miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
The 12-month forecast is highly dependent on the earnings recovery. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $110 and $125, driven by meeting the consensus EPS estimate of $6.12. The bull case (30% probability) targets $134 to $145, requiring an earnings beat and multiple expansion. The bear case (20% probability) envisions a drop to $87-$100 if margins fail to recover and estimates are cut. The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes a gradual, uneven recovery where the company meets, but does not exceed, current expectations. The key assumption is the stabilization of gross margins in the coming quarters.
WYNN's valuation is bifurcated. On a trailing basis, it appears overvalued with a P/E of 38.12x and negative ROE. However, the forward P/E of 19.53x, based on estimated EPS of $6.12, suggests the market is pricing in a significant earnings rebound and may be fairly valued if that occurs. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.75x and EV/EBITDA of 13.24x are in a moderate range for the sector. The stock is not cheap on current results but could be reasonably priced if future estimates are met. The valuation implies the market expects a successful margin and profit recovery in Macau and Las Vegas.
WYNN is a speculative buy for investors who believe in a robust earnings recovery and can tolerate high volatility. The unanimous bullish analyst consensus and reasonable forward P/E of 19.53x are positive, but the investment is fraught with risk due to severe margin compression, negative shareholder equity, and macroeconomic sensitivity. It could be a good buy for aggressive investors if the margin recovery materializes, but conservative investors should avoid it due to the fragile balance sheet and operational uncertainty. The high short interest of 5.48 indicates a significant portion of the market disagrees with the bullish outlook.
WYNN is more suitable for a medium- to long-term investment horizon (2-3 years minimum) to allow its recovery thesis to play out. The stock's high beta (0.984) and sensitivity to quarterly earnings make it volatile and risky for short-term trading. The lack of a high dividend yield (1.40%) also reduces its appeal for income-focused investors. Long-term investors are betting on the full normalization of Macau operations and margin restoration. Short-term traders might capitalize on technical swings, but the fundamental story requires patience. Given the operational turnaround needed, a holding period of at least 18-24 months is recommended to assess the success of the recovery.
