Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$102.53
+0.16%
Wynn Resorts operates luxury casinos and resorts, with properties including Wynn Macau, Encore Macau, Wynn Las Vegas, Encore Las Vegas, and Encore Boston Harbor, and is expanding into the UAE. As a premier player in the high-end gaming and hospitality segment, Wynn differentiates itself through its focus on luxury experiences and premium customer service. The current investor narrative centers on the company's growth trajectory, driven by the recovery of Macau gaming revenues, the upcoming opening of a new tower at Wynn Palace in 2029, and the anticipated launch of a managed integrated resort in the UAE in 2027. Additionally, the stock's recent underperformance relative to the broader market has sparked debate about valuation and the sustainability of its growth prospects.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$102.53
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Rating: Buy. WYNN is a strong buy based on the consensus Strong Buy rating and the average analyst target of $132.58, which implies ~29% upside. The thesis is that the company's revenue growth (9.2% YoY) and forward PE of 19.75x indicate that earnings are expected to nearly double, driven by Macau recovery and new projects. The stock is trading at a discount to its historical valuation and offers a dividend yield of 1.4%.
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WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The company's revenue growth and forward PE suggest that earnings will improve significantly, and analysts are highly optimistic. However, the stock's underperformance and high debt levels introduce uncertainty. If the company delivers on its growth promises, the stock could re-rate higher, but any miss could lead to further downside. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Macau GGR shows strong growth in the next quarter, and downgraded to neutral if revenue growth decelerates below 5%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $132.58 and implied upside of +29.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$132.58
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+29.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$116 - $145
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from $116.00 to $145.00, with an average of $132.58, indicating a spread of $29.00 (25% of the low target). The high target likely assumes successful execution of the UAE resort opening in 2027 and continued Macau growth, while the low target may factor in potential regulatory headwinds or slower-than-expected recovery. Recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with firms like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Barclays maintaining 'Overweight' ratings, and Macquarie and Mizuho reiterating 'Outperform'. This pattern suggests analysts are confident in WYNN's growth story, and the tight target range (low to high) indicates relatively low uncertainty about the company's future performance.
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Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
WYNN presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and analyst optimism are offset by significant underperformance and valuation concerns. The bull case rests on the forward PE of 19.75x, which implies substantial earnings growth, and the company's expansion projects. The bear case highlights the high trailing PE, negative ROE, and dependence on Macau. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the consensus Strong Buy and the potential for earnings to double, but the stock's recent price action and negative momentum warrant caution. The key tension is whether the market's expectation of near-term earnings growth (implied by the forward PE) will materialize, as any disappointment could lead to further downside.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Momentum: Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.2% YoY to $1.856B, with TTM revenue sequentially increasing from $1.733B in Q2 2025 to $1.857B in Q1 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory driven by casino operations.
- Analyst Consensus Strong Buy: With 19 analysts, the consensus rating is Strong Buy (mean 1.25), and the average target price of $132.58 implies ~29.3% upside from the current $102.53. No recent downgrades, with firms like JP Morgan and Barclays maintaining Overweight.
- Forward PE Suggests Earnings Growth: The forward PE of 19.75x is significantly lower than the trailing PE of 38.08x, implying the market expects earnings to nearly double in the next year, likely driven by Macau recovery and new property openings.
- Expansion Projects Provide Long-Term Catalysts: The 432-suite tower at Wynn Palace (2029) and the managed UAE integrated resort (2027) are expected to drive future growth, diversifying revenue streams beyond Macau and Las Vegas.
Bearish
- Underperformance vs. Market: WYNN's 1-year price change is -7.95% versus the S&P 500's +20.37%, and relative strength over 1 year is -28.32%, indicating significant underperformance and negative investor sentiment.
- High Trailing PE and Negative PEG: The trailing PE of 38.08x is elevated, and the PEG ratio is -1.24 (negative due to negative earnings growth expectations), suggesting the stock may be overvalued on current earnings.
- Negative ROE and High Debt: ROE is -118.8% and debt-to-equity is -44.62, indicating financial leverage and potential solvency concerns, though the negative D/E is due to negative equity from buybacks.
- Dependence on Macau Recovery: Macau contributes a significant portion of EBITDA (49% pre-pandemic), and any slowdown in Macau's gaming recovery or regulatory changes could severely impact earnings, as seen in the past.
WYNN Technical Analysis
WYNN's price trend over the past year has been predominantly downward, with a 1-year price change of -7.95%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's +20.37% gain. The stock currently trades at $102.53, which is 76.1% of its 52-week range (between $92.52 low and $134.72 high), indicating it is closer to the lower end of its yearly range. This positioning suggests the stock is in a recovery phase from its lows but still well below its highs, reflecting a bearish longer-term trend with potential for mean reversion if momentum builds.
Beta
1.00
1.00x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$93-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
-7.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.6% | +4.5% |
| 3m | +7.5% | +5.1% |
| 6m | -9.6% | +13.7% |
| 1y | -7.9% | +20.6% |
| ytd | -16.3% | +13.8% |
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WYNN Fundamental Analysis
WYNN's revenue has shown consistent growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.856 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year from $1.700 billion in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue trend shows sequential increases from $1.733 billion in Q2 2025 to $1.834 billion in Q3 2025, $1.866 billion in Q4 2025, and $1.857 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory. The casino segment is the primary revenue driver, contributing $1.177 billion in Q1 2026, while food and beverage ($259 million) and occupancy ($290 million) also contribute meaningfully, but the growth is largely driven by casino operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$693068000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Given that WYNN has positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 38.08x, while the forward PE is 19.75x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. This gap suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, likely driven by Macau recovery and new property openings. The forward PE of 19.75x is lower than the trailing, indicating that the market expects earnings to nearly double, which is a bullish signal if realized.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: WYNN carries significant debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62 (negative equity due to buybacks) and interest expenses of $152M in Q1 2026, which consumes a large portion of operating income. The company's ROE is -118.8%, indicating poor returns on equity, and the negative PEG ratio (-1.24) suggests that earnings growth may not justify the current valuation. Additionally, revenue is concentrated in casino operations (63% of Q1 2026 revenue), making the company highly sensitive to gaming demand fluctuations. The high trailing PE of 38.08x leaves little room for error; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
