Nebius Stock: $835 or $125 by 2029? The Math Says Hold
💡 Puntos Clave
Nebius has massive AI contracts but heavy dilution and capex create a wide valuation range, making the risk/reward unattractive at current prices.
Nebius Lands Palantir Partnership, Extending Rally
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares jumped again on Tuesday after Palantir Technologies named the AI cloud company its preferred partner for sovereign AI. The stock has gained about 15% over the past week, though it still trades roughly 19% below its 52-week high.
The company has amassed over $40 billion in customer commitments, including a Meta Platforms deal worth up to $27 billion and a $17.4 billion Microsoft contract. In the second quarter, Nebius closed four contracts averaging over $1 billion each, with pricing of $20 million to $25 million per megawatt in annual contract value—well above its 2026 base of about $12 million per megawatt.
Second-quarter revenue soared 454% year over year to $582.3 million, and the company swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of $236.2 million. Its annualized run rate climbed from $1.25 billion in December to $3.0 billion in June, with management guiding for $7 billion to $9 billion exiting 2026.
However, the build-out is expensive. Nebius spent $8.1 billion on capital expenditures in the first half of 2026 alone and raised $5.75 billion in convertible notes in August. The company also swapped older notes for about 15.8 million new shares, with the August notes convertible into up to 18 million additional shares.
Wide Valuation Range Reflects High Uncertainty
The bull case hinges on Nebius hitting its guided run rate and bringing 500 megawatts to 1 gigawatt online annually through 2029. If per-megawatt pricing holds near $20 million, the run rate could reach $70 billion by 2029, and with a 4x multiple, the stock could be worth $835 per share.
But the bear case is equally plausible. If pricing sags to $10 million per megawatt as industry capacity floods the market in 2028 and 2029, revenue would be halved. With a lower multiple of 2.5x to 3x and more dilution, the stock could fall to $125 per share.
The middle of that range lands in the $300s, modestly above today's price. That suggests the market is already pricing in a lot of success, leaving little margin of safety if execution stumbles or pricing weakens.
Dilution is a real concern. The share count, roughly 272 million at the end of June, could swell to 330 million to 400 million by 2029, diluting existing shareholders. Meanwhile, capital spending runs years ahead of contracted revenue, pressuring cash flow.
The key variable is the price of a megawatt. If it remains above $20 million, the model works. If it drops toward $10 million, the low end of the valuation range becomes likely.
Fuente: The Motley Fool
Análisis generado por el modelo cuantitativo de Bobby AI, revisado y editado por nuestro equipo de investigación. Esto no constituye asesoramiento financiero. Investigue por su cuenta antes de tomar decisiones de inversión.
Bobby Insight
Stay on the sidelines until per-megawatt pricing stabilizes and dilution risks become clearer.
While Nebius's growth is impressive, the stock's valuation already reflects much of the optimism. The wide range of potential outcomes ($125 to $835) and significant dilution make it difficult to justify a buy at current levels. Waiting for more clarity on pricing and capacity ramp-up is prudent.
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