Oracle Stock Slumps 25%: OpenAI Deal Backfires?
💡 Puntos Clave
Oracle and Microsoft fell sharply in H1 2026 due to massive capital spending and risky exposure to OpenAI's uncertain financial future, while Amazon and Alphabet gained.
What Happened to Oracle Stock?
Oracle stock dropped 24.8% in the first half of 2026, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Microsoft also declined by a similar amount, while Amazon and Alphabet (Google) saw their stocks rise.
The main reason: Oracle and Microsoft have huge exposure to OpenAI, the AI company behind ChatGPT. Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI, and 45% of its commercial backlog comes from OpenAI. Oracle signed a $300 billion, five-year deal with OpenAI in September 2025 to build AI infrastructure, starting in 2027.
Investors are worried about OpenAI's financial health. The company expects to burn through over $650 billion in cash through 2030, with revenue projections of $280 billion by 2030—up from just $20 billion in annualized revenue at the end of 2025. That's a huge leap, and many doubt it's achievable.
Bond markets also reacted negatively. After the Oracle-OpenAI deal, credit default swaps for Oracle's bonds spiked, implying a 13.4% cumulative default probability over five years. That's a big red flag for debt investors.
Meanwhile, AI infrastructure companies like Vertiv and GE Vernova outperformed, as demand for data centers and power equipment continues to grow.
Why It Matters for Investors
This story highlights a key divide in the AI boom: the hyperscalers (Oracle, Microsoft) that are spending billions on AI infrastructure are getting punished, while the companies that supply that infrastructure (Vertiv, GE Vernova) are thriving. It's a classic case of "picks and shovels" vs. the miners.
For Oracle and Microsoft, the risk is that OpenAI may not generate enough revenue to justify the massive investment. If OpenAI falters, both companies could face write-downs and lower growth. That's why their stocks fell even as AI enthusiasm remains high.
Amazon and Alphabet, on the other hand, have less direct exposure to OpenAI. They are building their own AI models and cloud services, which investors see as more diversified and less risky. That's why their stocks held up better.
The bond market's reaction to Oracle's deal is also telling. It suggests that even debt investors are skeptical about the returns from these AI investments. If borrowing costs rise for Oracle, it could squeeze its margins and limit future spending.
Looking ahead, the key question is whether OpenAI can deliver on its ambitious revenue targets. If it does, Oracle and Microsoft could rebound. If not, the sell-off may continue.
Fuente: The Motley Fool
Análisis generado por el modelo cuantitativo de Bobby AI, revisado y editado por nuestro equipo de investigación. Esto no constituye asesoramiento financiero. Investigue por su cuenta antes de tomar decisiones de inversión.
Bobby Insight
Avoid Oracle and Microsoft until OpenAI's financial outlook becomes clearer.
The massive capital spending required for AI infrastructure is weighing on these stocks, and OpenAI's cash burn raises serious doubts about returns. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure suppliers like Vertiv and GE Vernova are better positioned to profit without the same balance sheet risk.
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