SpaceX Lands on Nasdaq-100: What Now?

SpaceX (SPCX) recently completed the largest IPO in history, with a market cap of about $2 trillion. Due to its massive size, it was quickly added to the Nasdaq-100 index, a rare move for a newly public company.

Index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 are now required to buy SpaceX stock in proportion to its weight in the index. However, because only about 4% of SpaceX's total shares are publicly available (a small float), its initial weight is only around 1%.

Despite the index inclusion, SpaceX's stock fell nearly 7% on its first day in the index, dropping from an initial surge to $225 down to around $148. The company's valuation remains extremely high at roughly 100 times its 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion.

SpaceX also merged with xAI earlier this year, giving it exposure to artificial intelligence. However, many of its ambitious projects, like orbital AI data centers, are long-term and won't contribute to near-term earnings.

SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is a double-edged sword for investors. On one hand, it guarantees steady buying from index funds, which can support the stock price. On the other hand, the stock's valuation is stretched to extreme levels.

Trading at over 100 times 2025 revenue, SpaceX is priced for perfection. Even with strong growth in its core launch business and Starlink, such a multiple leaves little room for error. If growth disappoints or interest rates rise, the stock could correct sharply.

The small float amplifies volatility. As lockup agreements expire over the next 180 days, more shares will hit the market, potentially diluting existing shareholders and putting downward pressure on the price.

For competitors like Virgin Galactic or legacy aerospace companies, SpaceX's dominance in launch and satellite internet continues to widen. Its Nasdaq-100 inclusion also signals that space stocks are becoming mainstream, which could attract more capital to the sector.