Bunge Limited
BG
$107.78
-8.17%
Bunge Global SA is a leading agribusiness solutions company that connects farmers to consumers, delivering essential food, feed, and fuel globally through segments including Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing, Grain Merchandising, and Milling. As a vertically integrated giant in agricultural commodities, Bunge distinguishes itself through its global scale, processing infrastructure, and role as a critical intermediary in the food supply chain. The current investor narrative centers on Bunge's ambitious long-term targets, including a $15 mid-cycle EPS goal by 2030, which signals confidence in structural growth despite near-term profit headwinds from volatile commodity prices and margin compression in processing. Recent analyst upgrades and a focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks are driving renewed attention on the stock.…
BG
Bunge Limited
$107.78
Related headlines
BG 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Bunge Limited's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $141.44 and implied upside of +31.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$141.44
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+31.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$116 - $150
Analyst target range
Bunge is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 1.56 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $141.44, implying 18.7% upside from the current price of $119.15. The distribution shows a bullish leaning, with no sell ratings and recent upgrades from Barclays, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, and UBS, all maintaining Overweight or Buy ratings. The target range spans from a low of $116.00 to a high of $150.00. The low target of $116.00 is just below the current price, suggesting some analysts see limited downside but also limited upside in the near term. The high target of $150.00 implies 25.9% upside and likely assumes successful execution of the 2030 EPS target and margin expansion. The spread between low and high ($34) is moderate, indicating reasonable uncertainty but not extreme. The consensus is clearly bullish, supported by the recent string of positive ratings actions, though the wide range reflects differing views on the pace of earnings recovery and commodity price trends.
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Bulls vs Bears: BG Investment Factors
Bunge presents a compelling risk/reward skewed to the upside if its ambitious 2030 EPS target is achieved, but near-term fundamentals are weak with razor-thin margins, negative free cash flow, and a high debt load. The bull case rests on the Viterra merger driving scale efficiencies and a cyclical recovery in processing margins, while the bear case centers on persistent margin compression and execution risk. The single most important tension is whether the depressed Q1 2026 earnings represent a trough or a new normal; if margins recover, the forward P/E of 10.68x offers significant upside, but if they remain suppressed, the trailing P/E of 17.96x is unjustified. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the analyst consensus and low forward multiple, but the margin trajectory in the next two quarters will be decisive.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth from Viterra Merger: Q1 2026 revenue surged 87.8% YoY to $21.86B, driven by the Viterra acquisition. This scale positions Bunge as a top global agribusiness player, enhancing its ability to capture efficiencies and cross-sell across segments.
- Ambitious 2030 EPS Target Signals Confidence: Management targets $15 mid-cycle EPS by 2030, implying a 12.5x P/E on the forward estimate. This ambitious goal, if achieved, would represent a 40%+ earnings CAGR from the depressed Q1 2026 annualized run rate, driving significant upside.
- Forward P/E Discount to Peers: The forward P/E of 10.68x is a 29% discount to the industry average of ~15x, suggesting the market is pricing in a strong earnings rebound. This low multiple provides a margin of safety if the recovery materializes.
- Strong Analyst Support with 18.7% Upside: The consensus analyst target of $141.44 implies 18.7% upside from the current price of $119.15. With 9 analysts, a mean recommendation of 1.56 (Buy), and no sell ratings, sentiment is decisively bullish.
Bearish
- Paper-Thin Margins and Earnings Volatility: Gross margin collapsed to 3.5% in Q1 2026 from 5.2% a year ago, and net margin was just 0.31%. Net income dropped 66% YoY to $68M, highlighting extreme sensitivity to commodity spreads and input costs.
- Negative Free Cash Flow and Working Capital Drain: Free cash flow was -$877M in Q1 2026, driven by a $2.17B inventory build. TTM free cash flow is only $14M, indicating limited cash generation and potential need for external financing or asset sales.
- Trailing P/E Premium to Industry: The trailing P/E of 17.96x is a 20% premium to the industry average of ~15x. Given the depressed earnings, this multiple may be unsustainable if margins do not recover as expected.
- Execution Risk on 2030 EPS Target: The $15 mid-cycle EPS target requires a massive earnings recovery from the current run rate of ~$1.40 annualized EPS. Any delay in margin improvement or commodity headwinds could derail this goal, leading to multiple compression.
BG Technical Analysis
Bunge is in a strong long-term uptrend, with the stock price up 62.86% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.35% gain. The current price of $119.15 sits at 64.5% of its 52-week range ($73.17 low to $134.87 high), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but not yet at overbought extremes. This positioning suggests sustained bullish momentum but with room for further upside before challenging resistance. Short-term momentum shows a divergence: the 1-month change is +2.59% while the 3-month change is -0.09%, indicating a recent deceleration from the longer-term trend. The stock pulled back sharply from its 52-week high of $134.87 in June 2026, dropping to a low of $104.89 in early July, but has since recovered 13.6% to $119.15. This V-shaped recovery suggests strong buying support at lower levels, though the 3-month flat performance warrants caution. The 1-month relative strength of +2.28% versus the S&P 500's +0.31% shows recent outperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $73.17, though a more immediate floor is the recent July low of $104.89. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $134.87; a breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the uptrend and target new highs. Conversely, a breakdown below $104.89 could lead to a test of the $100 psychological level. With a beta of 0.639, Bunge is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a lower-risk holding that may underperform in strong rallies but provide downside protection.
Beta
0.64
0.64x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$76-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+41.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.2% | -1.6% |
| 3m | -15.2% | +1.5% |
| 6m | -5.4% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +41.2% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +16.3% | +7.0% |
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BG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown strong growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $21.86 billion representing an 87.76% year-over-year increase from $11.64 billion in Q1 2025, though this is partly due to the inclusion of the former Viterra assets after the merger. On a sequential basis, revenue declined from $23.76 billion in Q4 2025, indicating some normalization. The Soybean Processing and Refining segment remains the primary revenue driver, while Milling Products contributed $761 million in the latest quarter. The growth trajectory is robust but faces headwinds from moderating commodity prices and processing margins. Profitability metrics are mixed: net income for Q1 2026 was $68 million, down sharply from $201 million in Q1 2025, reflecting margin compression. Gross margin fell to 3.5% from 5.2% a year ago, well below the industry average for agribusiness, which typically ranges 8-12%. Operating margin was 1.07%, and net margin was 0.31%, indicating very thin profitability. The company is profitable but with narrow margins that are sensitive to input costs and commodity spreads. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 and a current ratio of 1.61, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow was negative $877 million in Q1 2026, driven by large working capital outflows, particularly inventory build of $2.17 billion. However, trailing twelve-month free cash flow was only $14 million, suggesting limited cash generation. ROE stands at 5.13%, below the consumer defensive sector average of around 15%, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the business and thin margins.
Quarterly Revenue
$21.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+87.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
3.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$14000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BG Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 17.96x, while the forward P/E is 10.68x, a significant discount that implies the market expects earnings to rebound sharply from the depressed Q1 2026 level. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests the market is pricing in a strong recovery, likely driven by the company's $15 mid-cycle EPS target. Compared to the agricultural farm products industry average P/E of approximately 15x, Bunge's trailing P/E of 17.96x represents a 20% premium, but the forward P/E of 10.68x is a 29% discount, indicating that on forward earnings, the stock is cheap relative to peers. This discount may be justified by the company's thin margins and volatile earnings history. Historically, Bunge's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.3x to 90.9x over the past five years. The current 17.96x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued by historical standards. The P/B ratio of 0.92x is below 1.0, indicating the stock trades below book value, which is often a value signal but can also reflect low returns on equity. The EV/EBITDA of 11.94x is reasonable for the sector.
PE
18.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Bunge's financial health is strained by thin margins and negative free cash flow. Gross margin fell to 3.5% in Q1 2026, well below the industry average of 8-12%, and net margin was only 0.31%. Free cash flow was -$877M in Q1 2026, with TTM FCF of just $14M, indicating poor cash generation. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 is high, and interest expense of $181M consumed 77% of operating income, leaving little room for error. Revenue concentration in the Soybean Processing segment (the largest contributor) exposes the company to single-commodity risk and volatile crush spreads.
Market & Competitive Risks: Bunge's trailing P/E of 17.96x is a 20% premium to the industry average, making it vulnerable to multiple compression if earnings disappoint. The stock's beta of 0.639 provides some insulation from market swings, but it also means the stock may underperform in strong rallies. Competitive pressures from Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill could limit margin expansion. Regulatory risks include trade policy changes affecting agricultural exports and environmental regulations on biofuels. Recent news highlights the ambitious 2030 EPS target, which if missed, could trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
Worst-Case Scenario: A prolonged period of low processing margins, combined with high debt servicing costs, could force Bunge to cut dividends or raise equity. If earnings fail to recover and the stock re-rates to its 52-week low of $73.17, an investor could lose 38.6% from the current price of $119.15. This scenario would likely involve a recession, falling commodity prices, and a collapse in crush spreads, leading to negative EPS and a P/E multiple contraction to historical trough levels.
