Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
$104.87
+1.73%
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally, including Walmart US, Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments, with fiscal 2026 sales exceeding $713 billion. As a dominant player in the discount store industry, Walmart leverages its massive scale and supply chain efficiency to offer everyday low prices, while expanding its e-commerce and advertising businesses. The current investor narrative centers on a recent slowdown in U.S. comparable sales, which triggered a sharp stock decline in August 2026, raising concerns about consumer spending, though strong growth in e-commerce and high-margin advertising revenue offers a counterbalance. Additionally, Walmart's involvement in a power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy highlights its strategic investments in sustainability and operational efficiency, while tariff refunds provide a one-time earnings boost but new tariffs pose future risks.…
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
$104.87
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy WMT Today?
Based on the analysis, WMT is rated a Hold. The consensus is a Buy with an average target of $127.95, implying 24.1% upside, but the recent sales slowdown and rich valuation warrant caution. The thesis is that Walmart's long-term growth in e-commerce and advertising supports a premium, but near-term headwinds limit upside.
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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Walmart's strong revenue growth and defensive characteristics are offset by a rich valuation and negative momentum. The stock is likely to trade in a range over the next 12 months, with upside if consumer spending improves and downside if it weakens. Upgrading to bullish would require evidence of sustained comp sales acceleration and margin expansion, while downgrading to bearish would occur if revenue growth falls below 5% or margins deteriorate further.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $127.72 and implied upside of +21.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$127.72
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+21.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $155
Analyst target range
Walmart is covered by 40 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 1.58 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $127.95, implying a 24.1% upside from the current price of $103.09, indicating that analysts see significant recovery potential. The target range spans from $81.00 (low) to $155.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a 50.3% upside, likely assuming a rebound in consumer spending and continued e-commerce growth, while the low target implies a 21.4% downside, reflecting risks of prolonged sales weakness and margin compression. Recent institutional actions show mostly reaffirmations of Buy/Outperform ratings from firms like BTIG, UBS, and RBC Capital, with one upgrade from Sell to Hold, indicating a generally positive but cautious sentiment.
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Bulls vs Bears: WMT Investment Factors
Walmart presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and e-commerce momentum are offset by margin pressure and a rich valuation. The bear case currently has stronger evidence in the short term, given the recent comp sales miss and negative relative strength. However, the bull case rests on Walmart's defensive nature and long-term growth in high-margin businesses. The key tension is whether the recent sales slowdown is a temporary blip or a sustained trend, which will determine if the stock's premium valuation is justified.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating to 7.3%: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 7.33% YoY to $177.75B, up from 4.5% in the prior-year quarter, driven by strength in Walmart US and international segments. This acceleration shows the company's ability to grow despite a challenging consumer environment.
- E-commerce and advertising growth potential: Walmart's e-commerce and high-margin advertising businesses are expanding rapidly, with recent news highlighting strong growth in these areas. This diversification supports margin expansion and long-term earnings growth, justifying a premium valuation.
- Analyst consensus Buy with 24% upside: 40 analysts rate WMT a Buy (mean 1.58), with an average price target of $127.95, implying 24.1% upside from the current $103.09. The high target of $155 suggests 50.3% upside, reflecting confidence in recovery.
- Strong free cash flow of $12.55B: TTM free cash flow is $12.55B, providing ample capacity for dividends, buybacks, and investments. The payout ratio of 34.3% and dividend yield of 0.79% offer income stability.
Bearish
- U.S. comp sales miss triggered selloff: In August 2026, Walmart's stock fell sharply after U.S. comparable sales missed expectations, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending. This triggered a 20%+ decline from the 52-week high, eroding investor confidence.
- Trailing P/E of 43.5x is expensive: WMT trades at 43.48x trailing earnings, a 98% premium to the industry average of 22x. Even the forward P/E of 31.99x implies aggressive earnings growth expectations that may not materialize.
- Margin pressure from rising costs: Operating margin contracted to 4.22% in Q1 FY2027 from 4.31% a year ago, and net income fell to $5.65B from $7.03B in Q2 FY2026. Rising costs and investments are squeezing profitability.
- Relative strength deeply negative: WMT underperformed the S&P 500 by -31.58% over six months and -21.40% YTD, indicating persistent selling pressure and negative market sentiment. This suggests the downtrend may continue.
WMT Technical Analysis
Walmart's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past six months, with a 6-month price change of -19.43% and a 1-year change of +7.26%, indicating a significant pullback from its highs. The current price of $103.09 sits at 76.3% of its 52-week range (low $95.80, high $135.16), suggesting it is closer to the lower end, which could signal a value opportunity or a falling knife depending on fundamental support. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 significantly, with relative strength of -31.58% over six months, reflecting broad market weakness in the retail sector.
Beta
0.60
0.60x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$97-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+8.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.7% | +2.7% |
| 3m | -7.2% | +1.0% |
| 6m | -17.9% | +12.0% |
| 1y | +8.1% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -7.0% | +12.5% |
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WMT Fundamental Analysis
Walmart's revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ended April 2026) showing revenue of $177.75 billion, a 7.33% YoY increase, up from 4.5% growth in the prior year quarter. This acceleration is driven by strength in Walmart US (68% of sales) and international segments, though Sam's Club also contributed. However, net income for the quarter was $5.65 billion, down from $7.03 billion in Q2 FY2026, reflecting margin pressure. Gross margin improved slightly to 25.14% from 24.97% a year ago, but operating margin contracted to 4.22% from 4.31%, indicating rising costs. The company's profitability remains solid, with a net margin of 3.18% for the quarter, but the sequential decline in EPS from $0.88 to $0.67 highlights volatility.
Quarterly Revenue
$177.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?
Given Walmart's positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 43.48x is the primary valuation metric, while the forward P/E of 31.99x implies the market expects earnings growth of about 36% over the next year, which is aggressive given the recent slowdown. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (based on available data), Walmart trades at a 98% premium, reflecting its status as a defensive growth stock with strong e-commerce and advertising potential. Historically, Walmart's trailing P/E has ranged from 13.6x to 56.2x over the past three years, and the current 43.5x is near the higher end, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic long-term growth, leaving little room for disappointment.
PE
43.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high trailing P/E of 43.5x, which leaves little room for earnings disappointment. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 is manageable, but rising interest expenses ($699M in Q1) and operating margin contraction (4.22% vs 4.31% a year ago) indicate cost pressures. Net income fell to $5.65B from $7.03B in the prior quarter, showing earnings volatility. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.79 suggests potential liquidity concerns, though Walmart's scale and cash flow mitigate this.
