Century Aluminum
CENX
$35.03
+2.43%
Century Aluminum Co is a primary aluminum producer operating smelters in the United States and Iceland, manufacturing standard-grade aluminum sow and tee bars, high-purity aluminum, and value-added billet and foundry products, alongside a carbon anode facility in the Netherlands; it sits within the Basic Materials sector's aluminum industry. The company is a small-cap, commodity-price-taker with a structurally leveraged business model — profitability is driven almost entirely by the spread between London Metal Exchange aluminum prices, regional premiums, and power costs rather than by volume growth, and its output is largely contracted to Glencore, which has agreed to purchase nearly all of its North American production. The current investor debate centers on the tension between a Middle East conflict-driven aluminum supply shock that has created windfall pricing for domestic smelters and the company's own deteriorating equity performance, with the stock down sharply over six months despite a blowout Q1 2026 print (EPS of $3.41 versus $0.30 a year earlier) that was heavily flattered by a $242.7 million non-operating other-income line. Investors are now questioning whether tariff-protected domestic smelting economics and elevated aluminum premiums are durable, or whether the recent price collapse reflects a normalization of the commodity cycle and fading of the geopolitical premium.…
CENX
Century Aluminum
$35.03
CENX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Century Aluminum's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $60.20 and implied upside of +71.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$60.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+71.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $79
Analyst target range
Coverage is thin but uniformly bullish: five analysts cover CENX with a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" (mean rating 1.4 on a 1-5 scale) and an average target price of $60.20, which implies +71.9% upside from the current $35.03 — an unusually wide gap between price and target that typically signals either a significant mispricing or stale estimates that have not caught up to the commodity-driven selloff. The consensus leans decisively bullish, with the forward EPS estimate of $13.61 and revenue estimate of $3.94 billion underpinning targets that assume a sustained aluminum upcycle; institutional ratings show only reaffirmations (B. Riley at Buy on 2026-07-07, Wells Fargo at Overweight on 2026-05-08) with no downgrades, but also no fresh upgrades since the stock's June collapse, suggesting analysts are holding rather than actively re-underwriting. The target range of $40.00 to $79.00 is extremely wide — a 97.5% spread from low to high — which signals high uncertainty and low conviction despite the bullish headline rating. The $79 high target implicitly assumes multiple expansion on peak aluminum realizations, tariff-protected domestic premiums, and the full forward EPS of $13.61-15.73 materializing; the $40 low target, still 14.2% above the current price, prices in margin compression and a partial normalization of the commodity cycle but not a full reversion to the Q4 2025 earnings run-rate. Notably, even the most bearish analyst target sits above the current price, which is either a strong contrarian signal or evidence that estimates are lagging the tape — given the 5.46 short ratio and -51.20% six-month relative strength, investors should treat the consensus with skepticism until operating earnings (not one-time other income) confirm the forward EPS trajectory.
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CENX Technical Analysis
CENX is in a pronounced downtrend that has overwhelmed its longer-term gains: the stock is up 7.82% over the trailing year but has fallen 43.72% over six months and 14.44% year-to-date, a classic distribution pattern following a spike. At $35.03, the stock sits at roughly 21.1% of its 52-week range of $25.40 to $70.43 — deeply in the lower quartile — which signals a falling-knife profile rather than a value opportunity until a base forms, and the -51.69% max drawdown confirms the severity of the de-rating from the highs. Momentum is unambiguously negative and accelerating to the downside: the 1-month change of -11.98% and 3-month change of -15.59% both lag the 1-year gain, meaning the long-term positive return is entirely a legacy of the first-half 2026 rally (the stock traded near $68.77 in early June) that has since fully unwound. Relative strength is deteriorating across every window — -13.20% versus SPY over one month, -18.28% over three months, and a brutal -51.20% over six months — indicating this is idiosyncratic weakness, not just sector rotation, and the 5.46 short ratio suggests bears remain comfortable pressing the position. Key support sits at the 52-week low of $25.40, roughly 27.5% below the current price, while resistance is anchored at the $70.43 high; a reclaim of the $40-42 area (the September breakdown zone) would be the first sign of stabilization, whereas a break below $33 would open the door to retesting the low. With a beta of 2.078, the stock is more than twice as volatile as the S&P 500, so position sizing must account for roughly double the market's drawdown risk — the -51.69% peak-to-trough move is a direct illustration of that leverage.
Beta
2.08
2.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$25-$70
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CENX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.0% | +0.2% |
| 3m | -15.6% | +2.9% |
| 6m | -43.7% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +7.8% | +14.9% |
| ytd | -14.4% | +11.9% |
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CENX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is essentially flat and stagnant at the top line: Q1 2026 revenue of $649.2 million grew just 2.41% year-over-year from $633.9 million, continuing a multi-quarter pattern of $628-649 million prints (Q2 2025 $628.1M, Q3 2025 $632.2M, Q4 2025 $633.7M) that shows no volume-driven growth engine. Segment data confirms the concentration risk — aluminum generated $587.9 million versus just $61.3 million from alumina — meaning the investment case is a pure play on aluminum realizations and premiums rather than mix improvement. The flat revenue trajectory against a wildly swinging earnings line underscores that this is a price-taker whose top line is inelastic while its bottom line is hyper-sensitive to commodity spreads. Profitability is extraordinarily volatile and the headline numbers are misleading: Q1 2026 net income of $337.5 million (a 51.99% net margin) and EPS of $3.41 were inflated by $242.7 million of net other income, while operating income was a more modest $86.1 million (13.26% operating margin) and gross margin was 18.30%. The prior four quarters tell the real story — Q4 2025 net income of just $1.8 million (0.28% net margin), Q3 2025 $14.9 million, Q2 2025 a loss of $4.6 million, and Q1 2025 $29.7 million — with gross margins oscillating between 5.76% and 18.30%, which is characteristic of a commodity smelter where small moves in aluminum and power prices swing margins violently. The trailing net margin of 1.65% and gross margin of 10.14% are thin even by aluminum-industry standards, and the forward EPS estimate of $13.61 implies the market expects a dramatic earnings step-up that has not yet been demonstrated on a clean operating basis. The balance sheet is the strongest part of the story but cash generation is weak: debt-to-equity of 0.664 and a current ratio of 1.97 provide reasonable liquidity, and cash rose to $333.6 million at Q1 2026 from $135.6 million, aided by $205.0 million of other investing inflows. However, free cash flow is the red flag — TTM FCF is only $27.3 million, Q1 2026 FCF was negative $6.4 million despite $68.4 million of operating cash flow because capex consumed $74.8 million, and the FCF yield on a $3.69 billion market cap is a negligible ~0.7%. ROE of 5.06% and ROA of 10.23% are modest for a capital-intensive smelter, and with capex running at roughly 11.5% of quarterly revenue, the company depends on commodity upcycles rather than internal cash generation to fund itself.
Quarterly Revenue
$649200000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
18.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$27300000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CENX Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is positive but de minimis (EPS of $0.0113), the trailing PE of 93.3x is economically meaningless and I have selected the forward PE as the primary metric, supplemented by EV/EBITDA and PS. The forward PE of 3.07x against a trailing PE of 93.3x is an extreme gap that implies the market expects earnings to multiply roughly 30-fold, consistent with the consensus forward EPS estimate of $13.61 versus the trailing $0.011 — a forecast that hinges entirely on sustained elevated aluminum realizations and would be shattered by any commodity normalization. EV/EBITDA of 28.86x and a PS of 1.46x paint a less euphoric picture, with the EV/EBITDA multiple looking rich for a cyclical smelter and the PS multiple looking cheap, a divergence that reflects the depressed trailing earnings base. Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of a supplied industry-average multiple set, but contextually a 1.46x PS and 4.47x P/B are not demanding for a tariff-protected domestic smelter, while the 28.86x EV/EBITDA is well above what cyclical aluminum producers typically command at mid-cycle — suggesting the market is capitalizing peak-ish EBITDA rather than normalized earnings. The PEG ratio of -1.06 is not usable given the negative growth denominator, and the 20.1x price-to-cash-flow ratio signals the stock is not cheap on cash generation. Historically, CENX's own valuation band has been extraordinarily wide: PS ranged from 0.76x (Q3 2022) to 8.95x (Q1 2026), and P/B from 0.93x to 5.05x over the same window, with the current 1.46x PS and 4.47x P/B sitting in the lower-middle of the PS range but near the top of the P/B range. The current P/B of 4.47x is roughly double the 2.3-2.6x levels seen through most of 2024-2025, implying the market is still pricing in optimistic book-value growth even after the 44% six-month decline — a caution flag if earnings normalize toward the Q4 2025 run-rate.
PE
93.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~49x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
28.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple