CME Group
CME
$245.10
+2.01%
CME Group operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, enabling trading in futures and options across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, metals, and commodities. As a dominant exchange operator with a near-monopoly on U.S. futures trading and a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indices, it benefits from deep competitive moats and high barriers to entry. The current investor narrative centers on how persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed pivot—with rising rate hike expectations—could boost trading volumes and clearing revenue, though the stock has faced significant selling pressure amid broader market volatility and concerns over rate-sensitive asset valuations.…
CME
CME Group
$245.10
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CME 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CME Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $318.63 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$318.63
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$196 - $319
Analyst target range
CME is covered by 7 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: 3 Buy/Overweight, 3 Hold/Equal Weight, and 1 Underweight. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $15.70 and a forward P/E of 18.7x, the implied target is approximately $293.59, representing 22.2% upside from the current price of $240.27. The consensus recommendation is a cautious Buy, reflecting confidence in the company's earnings power but tempered by macro headwinds. The target range spans from a low of $281 (based on low EPS of $15.02 and 18.7x P/E) to a high of $303 (based on high EPS of $16.23 and 18.7x P/E), implying a relatively tight spread of about 8%, indicating moderate conviction among analysts. Recent ratings actions show a mix: Argus downgraded to Hold from Buy in March 2026, while TD Cowen upgraded from Hold to Buy in January 2026. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with most analysts maintaining their ratings through the recent sell-off, suggesting they view the decline as a buying opportunity.
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CME Technical Analysis
CME is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock declining 12.7% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 20.6% gain. The current price of $240.27 sits at just 73% of its 52-week range (low $218.31, high $329.16), indicating the stock is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning suggests a potential value opportunity, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of momentum. Short-term momentum is sharply negative, with the stock down 8.9% in the past month and 18.6% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 13.0% and 29.7% respectively on a relative strength basis. The 1-month decline of 8.9% is accelerating from the 3-month decline, signaling intensifying bearish sentiment. With a beta of just 0.276, CME is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning its downtrend is driven by stock-specific factors rather than broad market moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $218.31, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $329.16. A breakdown below $218 could signal further downside toward $200, while a recovery above $250 would be a first sign of stabilization.
Beta
0.28
0.28x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$218-$329
Price range past year
Annual Return
-10.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CME Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +7.9% |
| 6m | -10.9% | +8.5% |
| 1y | -10.9% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -9.1% | +9.9% |
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CME Fundamental Analysis
CME's revenue trajectory remains solidly growing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.649 billion up 8.1% year-over-year, driven by a 7.2% increase in clearing and transaction fees to $1.328 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $6.52 billion, with consistent sequential growth from $1.488 billion in Q1 2024 to $1.649 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is supported by robust derivatives trading volumes amid macroeconomic uncertainty, though the pace has moderated from double-digit growth in prior quarters. Profitability is exceptional, with a net income of $1.168 billion in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 70.8%, among the highest in the financial sector. Gross margin remains strong at 85.4%, while operating margin of 61.8% reflects the scalability of the exchange model. The company has maintained stable margins over the past year, with net margins ranging from 58.2% to 70.8%, indicating no margin compression despite revenue growth. CME boasts a fortress balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.13 and a current ratio of 92.97, reflecting minimal leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow generation is robust at $4.19 billion TTM, translating to a free cash flow yield of 4.3% at the current market cap. The company's ROE of 14.1% is solid, though the high payout ratio of 97.2% suggests limited retained earnings for reinvestment.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
85.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CME Overvalued?
Given CME's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 24.4x, while the forward P/E is 18.7x, implying the market expects earnings growth of roughly 30% over the next year. This gap suggests optimistic growth expectations embedded in the current price. Compared to the industry average (Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges), CME's trailing P/E of 24.4x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 22x, reflecting its dominant market position and high margins. The premium is justified by CME's superior net margin of 70.8% versus industry averages near 30%, though the PEG ratio of 1.59 suggests the growth is fairly priced. Historically, CME's trailing P/E has ranged from 18.7x to 37.3x over the past five years. The current 24.4x is near the lower end of that range, indicating the stock is trading at a discount to its own historical valuation. This could represent a value opportunity if earnings growth materializes, but also reflects the market's skepticism about near-term growth prospects amid the rate hike cycle.
PE
24.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 19x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
