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Intercontinental Exchange

ICE

$161.56

+1.99%

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) operates a vertically integrated network of financial exchanges, clearinghouses, and data services, best known for owning the New York Stock Exchange and running the dominant ICE Brent crude futures complex, alongside a mortgage technology franchise and a fixed-income/data-services business that together diversify revenue well beyond trading volumes. ICE's competitive identity rests on its role as a toll-road operator on global capital markets — a scale incumbent with entrenched liquidity pools, regulatory moats, and recurring, subscription-like data and technology revenue that make it less cyclical than pure-play trading venues. The current investor debate centers on whether ICE can sustain the double-digit revenue growth it just delivered (Q2 2026 revenue up 10.7% year over year to $3.61 billion) as energy-market volatility normalizes, while the mortgage technology segment remains hostage to a depressed U.S. housing turnover cycle and the data-services arm faces competitive pressure from nimble analytics providers. Sentiment has been further complicated by a sharp mid-year drawdown and a subsequent recovery, leaving investors weighing whether the recent rebound reflects durable earnings momentum or merely a mean-reversion bounce in a stock that has lagged the S&P 500 over the trailing year.…

Bobby Quantitative Model
Oct 16, 2026

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange

$161.56

+1.99%
Oct 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) operates a vertically integrated network of financial exchanges, clearinghouses, and data services, best known for owning the New York Stock Exchange and running the dominant ICE Brent crude futures complex, alongside a mortgage technology franchise and a fixed-income/data-services business that together diversify revenue well beyond trading volumes. ICE's competitive identity rests on its role as a toll-road operator on global capital markets — a scale incumbent with entrenched liquidity pools, regulatory moats, and recurring, subscription-like data and technology revenue that make it less cyclical than pure-play trading venues. The current investor debate centers on whether ICE can sustain the double-digit revenue growth it just delivered (Q2 2026 revenue up 10.7% year over year to $3.61 billion) as energy-market volatility normalizes, while the mortgage technology segment remains hostage to a depressed U.S. housing turnover cycle and the data-services arm faces competitive pressure from nimble analytics providers. Sentiment has been further complicated by a sharp mid-year drawdown and a subsequent recovery, leaving investors weighing whether the recent rebound reflects durable earnings momentum or merely a mean-reversion bounce in a stock that has lagged the S&P 500 over the trailing year.

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ICE 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $161.56
Average Target $161.56
High Target $185.79
Low Target $137.33

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intercontinental Exchange's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $187.53 and implied upside of +16.1% versus the current price.

Average Target

$187.53

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+16.1%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$160 - $243

Analyst target range

Coverage is broad and constructive, with 15 analysts covering ICE and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 1.81 on a 1-to-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The average target price of $187.53 implies roughly 16.1% upside from the current $161.56, and the consensus leans clearly bullish, supported by a recent institutional ratings pattern in which Barclays, TD Cowen, UBS, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have all reiterated Overweight/Buy or Equal Weight ratings between May and July 2026 with no downgrades in the visible record. The forward EPS consensus of $12.80 (range $12.36–$13.12) and revenue consensus of $14.27 billion (range $13.89–$14.55 billion) are tightly clustered, indicating high confidence in near-term estimates and reducing the risk of negative surprise. The target range is wide — from a low of $160.00 (essentially the current price, implying zero upside) to a high of $243.00 (about 50% upside) — which signals meaningful dispersion in how analysts view the mortgage technology recovery and the durability of exchange volume growth. The high target likely assumes multiple expansion toward the upper end of ICE's historical PE band plus accelerating mortgage-tech revenue as housing turnover recovers, while the low target of $160 prices in flat earnings, margin compression from competitive pressure in data services, and a normalization of energy-market volatility that stalls exchange revenue growth. The tight clustering of EPS and revenue estimates against a wide target-price spread suggests the disagreement is about valuation multiple rather than fundamentals — a common pattern for high-quality compounders where the debate is about what multiple the market will pay, not whether the business will grow. With 15 analysts and a 1.81 mean rating, coverage is deep enough for efficient price discovery, and the absence of recent downgrades supports the view that the recent rebound has fundamental backing rather than being a purely technical move.

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ICE Technical Analysis

ICE is in a recovery uptrend following a deep mid-year correction, with the stock up 5.35% over the trailing year and closing at $161.56, which places it at roughly 73% of its 52-week range of $121.79 to $176.05. That positioning — well off the lows but still about 8.2% below the 52-week high — suggests the stock has reclaimed momentum without becoming overextended, a healthier technical posture than a fresh-high breakout that often invites profit-taking. The 1-year gain of 5.35% badly trails the S&P 500's 15.53% advance (relative strength of -10.18), confirming that ICE has been a relative laggard even as it repairs its absolute trend. Short-term momentum is clearly accelerating: the stock is up 4.84% over the past month and 15.69% over three months, versus just 0.20% over six months, meaning essentially all of the interim performance was earned in the last quarter. That 3-month relative strength of +13.00 versus SPY (which gained only 2.69%) marks a decisive reversal from the 6-month relative strength of -7.28, and the 1-month figure of +3.62 versus SPY's +1.22% shows the outperformance is continuing rather than fading. The pattern — flat six-month, strong three-month, positive one-month — is characteristic of a bottoming formation rather than a trend exhaustion, though the 0.98% year-to-date gain (versus SPY's 11.93%) underscores how much ground remains to be recovered. Key resistance sits at the $176.05 52-week high, roughly 9% above the current price; a decisive break there would confirm a new leg higher and likely draw in momentum capital, while support rests at the $121.79 52-week low, about 25% below current levels, with intermediate support in the $140–$150 zone where the June–July base was built. A beta of 0.944 means ICE is slightly less volatile than the market — roughly 6% less — which, combined with a max drawdown of -30.23% over the period, argues for standard position sizing rather than the haircut required for high-beta names, though the -30% peak-to-trough decline shows the stock is not immune to sharp de-rating when sentiment turns.

Beta

0.94

0.94x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-29.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$122-$176

Price range past year

Annual Return

+5.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodICE ReturnS&P 500
1m+4.8%+0.2%
3m+15.7%+2.9%
6m+0.2%+8.4%
1y+5.3%+14.9%
ytd+1.0%+11.9%

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ICE Fundamental Analysis

ICE's revenue trajectory is re-accelerating, with Q2 2026 revenue of $3.611 billion up 10.7% year over year from $3.262 billion in Q2 2025, and the sequential path from $3.140 billion in Q4 2025 through $3.666 billion in Q1 2026 and $3.611 billion in Q2 2026 shows a business running at a meaningfully higher quarterly run-rate than a year ago. Segment data confirms the exchanges business is the growth engine at $2.409 billion, dwarfing fixed income and data services at $645 million and mortgage technology at $557 million, meaning trading and clearing volumes — particularly energy futures — remain the swing factor in overall results. The 10.7% growth rate is a notable acceleration from the mid-single-digit pace implied by prior-year comparisons, and if sustained it would support the consensus revenue estimate of $14.27 billion for the forward period, though investors should recognize that exchange revenue is inherently volume-sensitive and a normalization in energy-market volatility could quickly compress that growth rate. Profitability is robust: Q2 2026 net income was $958 million on a 26.5% net margin, with gross margin of 73.8% and operating margin of 38.7%, and the quarterly net income ratio has held in a tight 26.5%–38.5% band over the past four quarters despite revenue seasonality. The Q1 2026 quarter was unusually strong — $1.413 billion of net income on a 38.5% net margin and 81.2% gross margin — reflecting favorable one-time items and a lower cost base, while Q2's 73.8% gross margin and $2.076 billion of EBITDA (57.5% EBITDA margin) represent a more normalized but still elite profitability profile for a financial-infrastructure business. Margin quality is high and stable rather than expanding dramatically, which is appropriate for a mature, capital-light exchange operator whose incremental revenue largely drops through to operating income. The balance sheet is solid but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity of 0.70 and a current ratio of 1.02 indicate adequate but not abundant liquidity, while trailing free cash flow of $4.848 billion against a $92.5 billion market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 5.2% — attractive for a high-quality compounder. Quarterly free cash flow has been consistent at $1.15 billion (Q1 2026) and $1.74 billion (Q2 2026), comfortably covering $294 million of quarterly dividends and $651 million of buybacks, and the company's 11.4% ROE and 2.17% ROA reflect the heavy goodwill and intangible base typical of an acquisition-driven roll-up. The 0.70 debt-to-equity ratio and 9.7x interest coverage (per historical ratios) suggest financial risk is manageable, and ICE's ability to self-fund growth, dividends, and repurchases from operating cash flow means it does not depend on external financing — a meaningful quality marker in a higher-rate environment.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.6B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+10.7%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

73.8%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$4.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Exchanges Segment
Fixed Income and Data Services Segment
Mortgage Technology Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is ICE Overvalued?

Because ICE is solidly profitable — Q2 2026 net income of $958 million and trailing EPS of $1.70 — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the trailing PE of 27.9x against a forward PE of 18.2x implies the market expects earnings to grow roughly 54% over the next twelve months, a gap that is unusually wide and reflects either a depressed trailing base or aggressive forward estimates. The consensus forward EPS of $12.80 versus the reported quarterly EPS of $1.70 (annualizing to roughly $6.80) suggests the trailing figure is distorted by one-time items or that the forward estimate is on an adjusted basis, so the 18.2x forward multiple is the more economically meaningful anchor. On that basis ICE trades at a discount to its own recent history and at a level that looks reasonable for a high-quality exchange operator, though the 7.3x price-to-sales and 10.3x EV-to-sales multiples are rich in absolute terms. Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of an explicit industry-average multiple in the provided valuation data, but ICE's 27.9x trailing PE and 16.9x EV/EBITDA sit in line with the premium multiples typically commanded by exchange and financial-data franchises, and its 26.1% net margin and 38.7% operating margin justify a premium to diversified financials. The PEG ratio of 1.34 suggests the stock is priced roughly fairly relative to its growth rate — not cheap, but not stretched — while the 3.2x price-to-book and 19.8x price-to-cash-flow ratios reflect the intangible-heavy balance sheet and strong cash generation. Historically, ICE's PE has ranged from roughly 12.6x (Q4 2021) to 49.4x (Q4 2023), with the trailing PE of 27.9x sitting in the middle-to-upper portion of that band, and the price-to-sales ratio of 7.3x is well below the 19x–32x readings seen in the 2025–2026 historical data, though those figures appear to be computed on a different share/revenue basis and should be treated with caution. The more reliable read is that the forward PE of 18.2x is toward the lower end of ICE's historical valuation range, implying the market is not pricing in optimistic expectations — a setup that offers upside if earnings estimates prove achievable.

PE

27.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 13x~35x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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