Equifax
EFX
$158.87
-1.43%
Equifax, Incorporated is one of the three dominant U.S. credit bureaus, providing credit histories on millions of consumers that underpin lenders' credit decisions, while also operating a large Workforce Solutions segment (income verification and employer HR services) and a growing international business that together generate roughly 40% and 25% of revenue, respectively. The company occupies an oligopolistic position alongside Experian and TransUnion, giving it a distinct competitive identity as a data-utility platform whose services are deeply embedded in the lending infrastructure and difficult to displace. The current investor narrative is dominated by a sharp divergence between the company's solid operating momentum — highlighted by 14.35% year-over-year revenue growth in the most recent quarter and a beat-and-raise cadence — and a stock that has fallen nearly 39% over the past year, with investors debating whether the sell-off reflects genuine credit-cycle deterioration or an oversold mispricing. Attention is also focused on the company's ability to sustain Workforce Solutions growth and margin expansion amid a slowing consumer credit environment, while the broader AI-lending theme (evident in adjacent news flow around Upstart) raises both opportunity and disruption questions for traditional bureau models.…
EFX
Equifax
$158.87
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EFX Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Hold with a bullish bias, reflecting the disconnect between the company's solid operating momentum and the stock's severe underperformance. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with a mean of 1.67 and an average target price of $214.95, implying 35.3% upside, but the stock's 39% one-year decline and proximity to 52-week lows suggest the market is pricing in significant credit-cycle risk that the sell-side may be underestimating. The core thesis is that Equifax is a high-quality franchise trading at a discounted forward multiple, but the timing of a recovery is uncertain.\n\nSupporting evidence for a constructive view includes: 14.35% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026, with revenue accelerating from $1.442 billion to $1.649 billion; net margin expansion to 10.40% from 9.23% a year earlier; operating margin of 17.45% and EBITDA margin of 28.78%; and robust TTM free cash flow of $1.139 billion, yielding 4.3%. The forward PE of 15.63x is undemanding relative to the company's growth and profitability, and the PS ratio of 4.40x has compressed from 20.96x in Q1 2025, suggesting the stock is near the bottom of its historical valuation band. The dividend yield of 0.87% and payout ratio of 35.26% provide modest income support.\n\nThe biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a sharper-than-expected credit downturn, competitive disruption from AI lending platforms, and the company's thin current ratio of 0.605. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $170 and forward EPS estimates are revised upward, or if revenue growth sustains above 12% for two consecutive quarters. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 8% or if free cash flow declines materially. Relative to its history and peers, Equifax appears undervalued on a forward earnings basis, but the market is demanding proof of a sustainable recovery before re-rating the stock.
Sign up to view all
EFX 12-Month Price Forecast
Equifax presents a classic value-versus-momentum dilemma: the fundamental trajectory is improving, with revenue accelerating and margins expanding, yet the stock is in a persistent downtrend and trades near 52-week lows. The forward PE of 15.63x suggests the market is pricing in significant skepticism about the earnings recovery, creating an asymmetric risk/reward if the company delivers on consensus EPS of $13.50. However, the thin current ratio of 0.605 and elevated leverage of 1.106 debt-to-equity leave little room for error in a deteriorating credit environment. The analyst community remains uniformly bullish, but the wide target range of $179 to $245 signals uncertainty about the pace of recovery. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock holds above $170 and revenue growth sustains above 12%, or downgrade to bearish if it breaks below $150.75 on rising volume.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equifax's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $214.95 and implied upside of +35.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$214.95
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+35.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$179 - $245
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust, with 21 analysts following Equifax, and sentiment is decisively bullish: the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a recommendation mean of 1.67 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 3.0 is a hold), and there are no sell ratings evident in the institutional ratings feed. The average target price is $214.95, which against the current price of $158.87 implies upside of approximately +35.3% — a substantial gap that underscores how far the stock has fallen below where the sell-side believes it should trade. The consensus is clearly bullish and, notably, has not been revised down despite the stock's 17.3% one-month decline, suggesting analysts view the sell-off as a dislocation rather than a fundamental deterioration. The target range is wide, from a low of $179.00 to a high of $245.00, a spread of $66 (roughly 31% of the current price), which signals meaningful disagreement about the pace and magnitude of the earnings recovery. Even the low target of $179.00 implies +12.7% upside from the current price, meaning every analyst target sits above the market — an unusually one-sided setup that could reflect either strong conviction or stale targets that have not caught up to the price decline. The high target of $245.00 would require roughly 54% upside and likely assumes successful execution on Workforce Solutions growth, margin expansion, and a normalization of the credit environment that restores the stock toward its historical multiple band. Institutional ratings show a pattern of reaffirmations rather than upgrades or downgrades — UBS, Needham, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, and B of A all maintained Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings between April and July 2026 — indicating stable conviction but also an absence of fresh catalysts that might force a re-rating. The wide spread and unanimous bullishness, combined with the stock trading near 52-week lows, creates a classic contrarian setup: either the market is mispricing a high-quality franchise, or the sell-side is underestimating credit-cycle risk.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: EFX Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence in terms of price action and momentum, with the stock down 39% over one year and trading near its 52-week low, while the bull case rests on improving fundamentals and a deeply discounted forward valuation. The most important tension is whether the 14.35% revenue growth and margin expansion can be sustained if the credit cycle deteriorates further, or whether the market is correctly pricing in a recession that will stall Workforce Solutions and credit inquiry volumes. The forward PE of 15.63x versus the trailing 40.48x highlights the market's skepticism about the earnings recovery, creating an asymmetric setup if the company delivers on consensus EPS of $13.50. Analyst targets averaging $214.95 imply significant upside, but the stock's failure to hold rallies suggests investors are waiting for tangible proof of a credit environment stabilization. Ultimately, the resolution of this debate hinges on whether the next few quarters show continued revenue acceleration and margin expansion, which would validate the bull thesis, or a slowdown that confirms the bear case.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating at 14.35%: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.649 billion rose 14.35% year-over-year from $1.442 billion, with sequential gains from $1.537 billion in Q2 2025 to $1.551 billion in Q4 2025. This acceleration is notable because it occurred despite a slowing consumer credit environment, suggesting market share gains or pricing power.
- Forward PE of 15.63x is undemanding: The forward PE of 15.63x is based on consensus EPS of $13.50, which is a fraction of the trailing PE of 40.48x that is distorted by a Q4 2025 gross-profit anomaly. A 15.6x multiple for a business growing revenue at 14% with 18% operating margins is not expensive in absolute terms.
- Analyst targets imply 35% upside: The average analyst target price is $214.95, implying 35.3% upside from the current price of $158.87, with 21 analysts covering the stock and a consensus recommendation of 'buy' (mean 1.67). Even the lowest target of $179.00 implies 12.7% upside, indicating a uniformly bullish sell-side view.
- Workforce Solutions now largest segment: Workforce Solutions generated $683.1 million in Q1 2026, surpassing U.S. Consumer Information Solutions at $605.6 million, making it the largest revenue contributor. This segment is less credit-cycle-sensitive and structurally higher-growth, improving the company's revenue mix.
Bearish
- Stock down 39% and near 52-week low: The stock has fallen 39.06% over the past year and 25.77% year-to-date, closing at $158.87, just 7.3% above its 52-week low of $150.75. This persistent downtrend and proximity to lows signal strong negative momentum and distribution.
- Severe underperformance versus market: Relative strength versus SPY is -54.07 percentage points over one year and -28.20 percentage points over six months, with a -16.34 percentage point gap in the last month alone. This multi-quarter underperformance indicates deep investor skepticism about the recovery story.
- Thin current ratio of 0.605: The current ratio of 0.605 indicates limited short-term liquidity buffer, with current liabilities exceeding current assets. While typical for subscription-like data businesses, it leaves little cushion if credit conditions deteriorate sharply.
- Elevated leverage with debt-to-equity of 1.106: Total debt-to-capitalization stands at 53.90% and debt-to-equity at 1.106, with quarterly interest expense of $55.7 million covered 5.17x by operating income. This leverage amplifies earnings volatility and limits financial flexibility in a downturn.
EFX Technical Analysis
Equifax is in a sustained downtrend that has been interrupted by intermittent, failed rallies. The stock is down 39.06% over the past year and 25.77% year-to-date, and at $158.87 it sits at just 7.3% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $150.75, 52-week high of $262.30), meaning it is trading near the very bottom of its annual band. This positioning signals persistent distribution and negative momentum rather than a value opportunity that has been confirmed by price action — the stock is closer to a falling knife than a bottoming base, though the proximity to the 52-week low does create a defined risk level for contrarian positioning. Recent momentum has deteriorated sharply: the stock is down 17.30% over the past month versus a 0.96% decline in SPY, producing a relative strength of -16.34 percentage points, while the 3-month change is a modest +3.21%. This divergence — a positive 3-month but deeply negative 1-month — indicates that a mid-summer rally (the stock ran from roughly $152 in late June to $194 by late August) has fully reversed, and the failure to hold those gains points to a bearish trend resumption rather than a temporary pullback. The 6-month change of -10.76% and relative strength of -28.20% versus SPY confirm that underperformance is a persistent, multi-quarter phenomenon, not a one-month anomaly. Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $150.75, and a breakdown below that level would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and open the door to new lows, while resistance is layered at the recent $194 swing high and then the 52-week high of $262.30. The stock's beta of 1.305 means it is roughly 30% more volatile than the market, which amplifies both downside risk in a breakdown scenario and upside in any mean-reversion rally; with a short ratio of 7.24 days, short sellers have meaningful conviction, and a squeeze above $170-$175 could accelerate a rebound. The max drawdown of -42.08% underscores the severity of the current de-rating and the importance of disciplined position sizing.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$151-$258
Price range past year
Annual Return
-39.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EFX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.3% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +3.2% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -10.8% | +16.6% |
| 1y | -39.1% | +14.8% |
| ytd | -25.8% | +11.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
EFX Fundamental Analysis
Equifax's revenue trajectory remains healthy and is actually accelerating. The most recent quarter (Q1 2026, ended 2026-03-31) delivered revenue of $1.649 billion, up 14.35% year-over-year from $1.442 billion in Q1 2025, and the multi-quarter trend shows steady sequential progress from $1.537 billion in Q2 2025 to $1.545 billion in Q3 2025 to $1.551 billion in Q4 2025. Segment data shows Workforce Solutions at $683.1 million and U.S. Consumer Information Solutions at $605.6 million are the largest contributors, with International at $360.2 million, meaning the non-credit Workforce franchise is now the single biggest revenue engine — a structurally higher-growth, less credit-cycle-sensitive mix that supports the investment case. The growth trend implies the company is executing well despite macro headwinds, which makes the stock's 39% one-year decline look increasingly disconnected from operating reality. Profitability is solid and margins are expanding. Q1 2026 net income was $171.5 million on a net margin of 10.40%, up from $133.1 million and a 9.23% net margin in Q1 2025, while gross margin came in at 53.48% and operating margin at 17.45%. The trailing twelve-month picture is even stronger, with a net margin of 10.87%, operating margin of 18.03%, and gross margin of 44.60% (the TTM gross margin is depressed by a Q4 2025 cost-of-revenue accounting anomaly where gross profit was reported at just $170 million); the underlying quarterly gross margins in the 53-57% range are consistent with the credit-bureau industry's high-margin, data-utility economics. EBITDA of $474.6 million in Q1 2026 (28.78% EBITDA margin) versus $414.7 million (28.76%) a year earlier shows margin stability alongside revenue growth, and the EPS progression from $1.07 in Q1 2025 to $1.43 in Q1 2026 (+33.6%) demonstrates meaningful operating leverage. The balance sheet carries moderate leverage but is well covered by cash generation. Debt-to-equity stands at 1.106, total debt-to-capitalization at 53.90%, and the current ratio is a thin 0.605, indicating limited short-term liquidity buffer — though this is typical for a subscription-like data business with predictable receivables. Free cash flow is robust: TTM FCF of $1.139 billion against a $26.7 billion market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 4.3%, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow of $241.9 million funded $120.4 million of capex, $67.1 million of dividends, and $260 million of buybacks. ROE of 14.34% and ROA of 6.16% confirm efficient capital deployment, and interest coverage of 5.17x provides comfortable headroom on the $55.7 million quarterly interest expense; the company is self-funding growth and returning capital, which materially lowers financial risk despite the elevated debt load.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
53.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is EFX Overvalued?
Because Equifax is profitable — Q1 2026 net income of $171.5 million and TTM net income firmly positive — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 40.48x versus a forward PE of 15.63x, an extraordinarily wide gap that implies the market expects a massive earnings inflection; the forward multiple is based on consensus EPS of $13.50 versus trailing EPS of just $0.0247 (a figure distorted by the TTM window capturing the Q4 2025 gross-profit anomaly), so the forward PE is the more economically meaningful anchor. The 15.63x forward earnings multiple is undemanding in absolute terms and suggests the market is pricing in significant skepticism about the earnings recovery actually materializing. On peer comparison, the valuation data provided does not include an explicit industry-average multiple, so a precise premium/discount spread cannot be computed; however, the stock's PS ratio of 4.40x, EV/Sales of 3.78x, and EV/EBITDA of 17.32x are the relevant cross-checks. A 17.3x EV/EBITDA for a business growing revenue at 14% with 18% operating margins is not obviously expensive, and the PEG ratio of 4.12x looks stretched only because it is calculated off distorted trailing earnings; against the forward EPS growth implied by the $13.50 consensus, the valuation is far more reasonable. The premium embedded in the 5.81x price-to-book ratio reflects the asset-light, high-ROE nature of the bureau model rather than an earnings-based overvaluation. Historical context is instructive: Equifax's PE ratio has compressed dramatically from 56.9x in Q1 2025 and 45.5x in Q4 2024 to 40.5x in Q1 2026, and its PS ratio has fallen from 20.96x in Q1 2025 to 13.10x in Q1 2026 — a roughly 37% compression in the sales multiple over four quarters. The stock is therefore trading near the bottom of its own historical valuation band on both PE and PS, which historically has coincided with attractive entry points, though it can also signal that the market expects fundamental deterioration. With the forward PE at 15.63x against a 40.48x trailing figure, the market is clearly pricing a normalization of earnings that has not yet been reflected in reported results, creating an asymmetric setup if the recovery is confirmed.
PE
40.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~73x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on Equifax's elevated leverage and thin liquidity. Debt-to-equity stands at 1.106 and total debt-to-capitalization at 53.90%, with quarterly interest expense of $55.7 million covered 5.17x by operating income. The current ratio of 0.605 indicates that current liabilities exceed current assets, leaving minimal short-term buffer, though this is partially mitigated by predictable receivables and $1.139 billion in TTM free cash flow. Revenue concentration is another concern: Workforce Solutions and U.S. Consumer Information Solutions together account for roughly 78% of revenue, making the company sensitive to U.S. employment and credit trends. Additionally, the Q4 2025 gross-profit anomaly, where gross profit was reported at just $170 million, highlights potential accounting or cost volatility that could recur and distort earnings.\n\nMarket and competitive risks include valuation compression and disruption from AI-driven lending platforms. The stock's beta of 1.305 means it is 30% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside in a selloff. The PEG ratio of 4.12x appears stretched, though it is distorted by trailing earnings; the forward PE of 15.63x is more reasonable but still vulnerable if growth slows. Competition from fintechs like Upstart, which is expanding AI-based auto and mortgage lending, could erode traditional bureau demand over time, though established rivals are also building AI tools. Regulatory risks persist, as credit bureaus face ongoing scrutiny over data privacy and accuracy. The stock's 39% one-year decline and -54.07 percentage point relative underperformance versus SPY reflect these concerns, and any further deterioration in credit quality could trigger multiple compression.\n\nThe worst-case scenario involves a severe U.S. recession that drives up unemployment, reduces credit inquiries, and stalls Workforce Solutions growth, while simultaneously pressuring margins and free cash flow. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $150.75, representing a 5.1% decline from the current price, but a more severe outcome could see it fall to the analyst low target of $179.00—actually above the current price—though that target may be stale. A more realistic downside, given the max drawdown of -42.08%, would be a drop to the $120-$130 range if earnings disappoint and the forward PE compresses to 10x on lower EPS estimates. From the current price of $158.87, that implies a loss of 18-24%, with the 52-week low serving as the first major support level.
FAQ
The most severe risk is a U.S. recession that reduces credit inquiries and stalls Workforce Solutions growth, potentially driving the stock below its 52-week low of $150.75. Financial risks include elevated leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.106) and a thin current ratio of 0.605, which limit flexibility in a downturn. Competitive risks stem from AI-driven lending platforms like Upstart, which could erode demand for traditional credit reports over time. Finally, regulatory risks persist, as credit bureaus face ongoing scrutiny over data privacy and accuracy, and any adverse ruling could increase compliance costs or restrict business practices. Ranked by severity: macro/credit cycle, competitive disruption, financial leverage, and regulatory.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: a bull case (30% probability) targeting $245-$262, a base case (50%) targeting $179-$215, and a bear case (20%) targeting $120-$150.75. The base case is most likely, assuming gradual credit stabilization and revenue growth of 10-12%, which would lift the stock toward the analyst average target of $214.95. The key assumption is that Workforce Solutions continues to grow at a double-digit pace and margins remain stable. The bull case requires a soft economic landing and successful AI integration, while the bear case hinges on a recession and competitive pressures. The wide target range reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of recovery.
EFX appears undervalued on a forward earnings basis but fairly valued on trailing metrics. The forward PE of 15.63x is well below the trailing PE of 40.48x, which is distorted by a Q4 2025 gross-profit anomaly, and the PS ratio of 4.40x has compressed from 20.96x a year ago. The EV/EBITDA of 17.32x is reasonable for a company with 18% operating margins and 14% revenue growth. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading near the bottom of its valuation band, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery that has not yet materialized. If the company delivers on consensus EPS of $13.50, the stock would be undervalued; if earnings disappoint, the current multiple could prove fair or even rich.
From a risk/reward perspective, EFX offers a compelling but uncertain opportunity. The stock trades at $158.87, with analyst targets averaging $214.95 (35.3% upside) and a consensus buy rating, while the forward PE of 15.63x is undemanding for a business growing revenue at 14.35%. However, the stock is down 39% over one year and sits just 7.3% above its 52-week low, indicating significant market skepticism. The biggest downside risk is a credit-cycle downturn that could push the stock to $120-$130, representing a 18-24% loss. For long-term investors with a 2-3 year horizon and tolerance for volatility, EFX is a good buy at current levels, but short-term traders should wait for a confirmed bottom above $170.
EFX is better suited for long-term investment, with a suggested minimum holding period of 2-3 years. The company is in a turnaround phase, and the thesis depends on the normalization of earnings and credit conditions, which may take several quarters to play out. The stock's beta of 1.305 and max drawdown of -42.08% indicate high volatility, making it unsuitable for short-term trading unless one is skilled at timing reversals. The dividend yield of 0.87% is modest, so income is not a primary reason to hold. Long-term investors can benefit from the oligopolistic market structure, recurring revenue, and potential multiple expansion as the recovery materializes, but they must tolerate interim drawdowns.
