FTI Consulting
FCN
$141.18
+0.13%
FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm that provides specialized consulting services across five segments: Corporate Finance & Restructuring, Forensic and Litigation Consulting, Economic Consulting, Technology, and Strategic Communications. The company serves clients across a wide array of industries including construction, energy, financial institutions, healthcare, and technology, with the majority of revenue derived from the United States. As a niche player in the high-stakes advisory space, FTI is distinct for its counter-cyclical business model — demand for restructuring and litigation support tends to rise during economic downturns, providing a natural hedge. The current investor narrative centers on a stark disconnect between record financial performance and a depressed stock price, with shares down roughly 14% over the past year despite the company reporting its strongest quarterly revenue and earnings in recent history. A notable $183 million institutional allocation in February 2026 signaled confidence in the stock's upside potential amid the weakness, while the company's growing Technology and Strategic Communications segments are being watched as potential catalysts for diversifying revenue beyond the cyclical Corporate Finance core.…
FCN
FTI Consulting
$141.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FCN Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Hold with a bullish bias, anchored by the analyst average target price of $175.50 (24.3% upside) and a forward PE of 12.91x that is well below the trailing PE of 20.51x. The core thesis is that FCN is fundamentally undervalued relative to its record earnings and diversified revenue base, but the persistent downtrend and margin compression warrant caution until a reversal catalyst emerges. The stock's 10.7% revenue growth and 15.6% ROE support the bull case, but the market is clearly pricing in skepticism about sustainability.
Supporting evidence includes: (1) Q4 2025 revenue of $990.7M grew 10.71% YoY, with sequential acceleration through the year; (2) forward PE of 12.91x implies a 37% compression from trailing, suggesting analysts expect strong EPS growth to $12.20; (3) PS ratio of 1.47x and EV/Sales of 1.25x are low for a professional services firm with 15.6% ROE; (4) free cash flow of $166.6M TTM funded $322M in buybacks over two quarters, demonstrating capital return capacity. The implied upside to the average analyst target is 24.3%, and even the low target of $171.00 offers 21.1% upside.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) continued margin compression, with Q4 gross margin at 31.05% down from 33.25% in Q3; (2) a breakdown below the 52-week low of $137.65, which would signal a continuation of the downtrend; (3) failure to meet the estimated EPS of $12.20, which would make the forward PE of 12.91x look optimistic. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $150-$155 and margins show improvement, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or the stock breaks below $137.65. Relative to its history (PE of 33.84x in Q4 2024) and peers, FCN appears undervalued, but the market is pricing in a pessimistic scenario that may take time to reverse.
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FCN 12-Month Price Forecast
FCN presents a classic value-versus-momentum dilemma: the fundamentals are strong with record revenue and a forward PE of 12.91x, but the technical picture is weak with the stock near 52-week lows and negative relative strength. The market appears to be pricing in a pessimistic scenario about margin sustainability and restructuring demand, creating a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. However, the lack of near-term catalysts and sparse analyst coverage suggest the stock could remain depressed for several quarters. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $150 and gross margins recover above 32%, or downgrade to bearish if it breaks below $137.65 or revenue growth falls below 5%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FTI Consulting's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $175.50 and implied upside of +24.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$175.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$171 - $180
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage of FTI Consulting is limited, with only 2 analysts providing targets, which is unusually sparse for a company with a $5.56 billion market capitalization. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly rated, but the available targets show a low of $171.00 and a high of $180.00, with an average target price of $175.50. This average target implies a substantial +24.3% upside from the current price of $141.18, indicating that the analysts who do cover the stock are decidedly bullish on its prospects. The estimated EPS average of $12.20 for the forward period, compared to the trailing EPS of $1.73 (which appears to be a quarterly figure), suggests analysts expect strong earnings growth that the market is not currently pricing in.
The target range of $171.00 to $180.00 is relatively tight, spanning only $9.00 or approximately 5.1% of the midpoint, which signals strong conviction among the covering analysts despite the small sample size. The high target of $180.00 would require a PE multiple of approximately 14.8x on the estimated EPS of $12.20, still below the trailing PE of 20.51x, implying the bull case assumes multiple expansion from current depressed levels as earnings grow. The low target of $171.00 implies a more conservative 14.0x forward PE, suggesting that even the bear case among covering analysts assumes the stock re-rates higher. Institutional ratings data shows a pattern of caution: Truist Securities downgraded from Buy to Hold in April 2025, and Goldman Sachs has maintained a Neutral stance since February 2025, indicating that while price targets remain above current levels, the momentum of analyst sentiment has been negative. The limited coverage — only 2 analysts — is a significant consideration, as it typically indicates reduced institutional interest, less efficient price discovery, and potentially higher volatility, all of which are consistent with the stock's negative beta and recent underperformance.
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Bulls vs Bears: FCN Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence, with the stock in a sustained downtrend, accelerating negative momentum, and margin compression in Q4. However, the bull case rests on compelling valuation and fundamental data: a forward PE of 12.91x, 24.3% upside to analyst targets, and record revenue with 10.7% growth. The single most important tension is whether the market's pessimistic repricing of FCN's growth prospects is justified or represents a significant mean-reversion opportunity. If the company can stabilize margins and demonstrate that restructuring demand is not peaking, the stock could re-rate sharply toward analyst targets; if margin pressure persists and restructuring demand fades, the downtrend could continue toward new lows.
Bullish
- Record Q4 revenue with 10.7% growth: Q4 2025 revenue reached $990.7 million, up 10.71% year-over-year from $894.9 million in Q4 2024, marking the strongest quarterly revenue in the company's history. Sequential growth accelerated through 2025 from $898.3M in Q1 to $990.7M in Q4, demonstrating consistent momentum.
- Deep discount to analyst targets: The average analyst target price of $175.50 implies 24.3% upside from the current $141.18, with a tight range of $171-$180 indicating strong conviction among covering analysts. Even the low target of $171.00 represents 21.1% upside, suggesting the market is significantly mispricing the stock.
- Forward PE of 12.9x is historically cheap: The forward PE of 12.91x is less than half the trailing PE of 20.51x and well below the 33.84x seen in Q4 2024, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. With estimated EPS of $12.20, the stock trades at a deep discount to its own historical multiples and the broader market.
- Counter-cyclical model with diversified segments: The Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment ($423.2M) benefits from economic downturns, while Technology ($99.0M) and Strategic Communications ($99.4M) are approaching $100M quarterly run rates, reducing reliance on cyclical restructuring. This diversification strengthens the long-term revenue base.
Bearish
- Severe relative underperformance and downtrend: FCN is down 13.99% over one year and 17.09% YTD, massively underperforming the S&P 500's +15.01% and +11.7% respective returns. The stock trades just 6.8% above its 52-week low of $137.65 and 25.4% below its high, with a -24.93% max drawdown signaling persistent selling pressure.
- Accelerating negative momentum: The one-month decline of -8.19% is worse than the six-month decline of -18.96%, indicating selling pressure has accelerated recently. Relative strength versus the market is -7.23% over one month and -36.4% over six months, showing active capital rotation out of the name.
- Margin compression in Q4: Gross margin fell to 31.05% in Q4 from 33.25% in Q3, while operating margin declined to 9.43% from 12.31%. The quarterly net margin of 5.50% was pressured by a 37.1% effective tax rate and elevated interest expense of $35.3M, raising concerns about profitability sustainability.
- Sparse analyst coverage and cautious sentiment: Only 2 analysts cover the stock despite a $5.56B market cap, indicating reduced institutional interest and less efficient price discovery. Truist downgraded from Buy to Hold in April 2025 and Goldman Sachs has maintained Neutral since February 2025, reflecting negative sentiment momentum.
FCN Technical Analysis
FTI Consulting is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down 13.99% over the past year and 17.09% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +15.01% one-year return. At a current price of $141.18, the stock is trading at just 6.8% above its 52-week low of $137.65 and 25.4% below its 52-week high of $189.30, placing it in the bottom quartile of its annual range. This positioning near the lows signals persistent selling pressure and a lack of near-term momentum, though it also raises the question of whether the stock is approaching a value zone or remains a falling knife given the absence of a clear reversal catalyst. The maximum drawdown of -24.93% over the period underscores the severity of the decline from the April 2026 peak of $187.03.
Short-term momentum remains decisively negative, with the stock down 8.19% over the past month and 3.02% over the past three months, both representing sharp relative underperformance versus the S&P 500's -0.96% and +2.00% respective returns. The one-month decline of -8.19% is notably worse than the six-month decline of -18.96%, suggesting that selling pressure has actually accelerated in recent weeks rather than abating. This acceleration of downside momentum, combined with a relative strength of -7.23% versus the market over the past month, indicates that capital is actively rotating out of the name. The stock's beta of -0.057 is a striking anomaly — it implies virtually no correlation with the broader market, meaning FCN has been moving independently of market direction, which is unusual for a large-cap industrial and suggests company-specific or sector-specific headwinds are the dominant driver.
Key technical levels are well-defined: the 52-week low at $137.65 serves as the critical support zone, now just 2.5% below the current price, while the 52-week high at $189.30 represents the major resistance level approximately 34% above. A breakdown below $137.65 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and likely trigger further selling, potentially opening the door to new multi-year lows. Conversely, a breakout above the $150-$155 area (which has acted as a pivot zone in recent months) would be the first sign of stabilization, with a move above $160 needed to confirm a trend reversal. The negative beta of -0.057 is a critical consideration for portfolio construction — it suggests FCN could serve as a diversifier, but it also means traditional market-hedging assumptions do not apply, and position sizing should account for the stock's idiosyncratic risk profile rather than its market correlation.
Beta
-0.06
-0.06x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$138-$189
Price range past year
Annual Return
-14.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FCN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.2% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -3.0% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -19.0% | +16.6% |
| 1y | -14.0% | +14.8% |
| ytd | -17.1% | +11.7% |
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FCN Fundamental Analysis
FTI Consulting's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $990.7 million representing 10.71% year-over-year growth from $894.9 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent expansion: Q1 2025 revenue of $898.3 million grew to $943.7 million in Q2, $956.2 million in Q3, and $990.7 million in Q4, demonstrating sequential acceleration through the year. The Corporate Finance segment is the largest contributor at $423.2 million, followed by Forensic and Litigation Consulting at $192.9 million, Economic Consulting at $176.2 million, Strategic Communications at $99.4 million, and Technology at $99.0 million. The broad-based growth across segments, particularly the near-$100 million run rates in both Technology and Strategic Communications, suggests the company is successfully diversifying beyond its cyclical restructuring core, which strengthens the long-term investment case.
Profitability remains robust, with Q4 2025 net income of $54.5 million and a net margin of 7.15% on a trailing basis, though the quarterly net margin of 5.50% was pressured by a higher effective tax rate of 37.1% and elevated interest expense of $35.3 million. Gross margin came in at 31.05% for Q4, down from 33.25% in Q3 and 32.06% in Q2, indicating some compression in the most recent quarter. Operating margin for Q4 was 9.43%, a decline from 12.31% in Q3 and 10.52% in Q2, reflecting the impact of higher SG&A costs of $213.6 million and the interest expense spike. Despite the sequential margin compression, the full-year 2025 performance shows meaningful improvement over 2024, with Q4 2024 operating margin at just 5.89% versus 9.43% in Q4 2025, demonstrating that the company has made substantial progress on profitability on a year-over-year basis.
The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 and a current ratio of 1.56, indicating adequate liquidity and manageable leverage. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis stands at $166.6 million, though the quarterly cash flow data reveals significant volatility — Q1 2025 saw negative operating cash flow of -$465.2 million due to working capital swings, while Q4 2025 generated $359.8 million in operating cash flow and $372.1 million in free cash flow. Return on equity is a healthy 15.62%, and return on assets is 6.88%, demonstrating efficient capital deployment. The company has been actively returning capital to shareholders, with $87.8 million in stock repurchases in Q4 2025 alone and $234.2 million in Q3, funded entirely from internal cash generation without reliance on external financing. The cash flow coverage ratio of 0.61 and interest coverage of 2.65x in Q4 are areas to monitor, but the overall financial health remains solid.
Quarterly Revenue
$990746000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+10.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
31.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$166577000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FCN Overvalued?
With trailing net income positive at $54.5 million in the most recent quarter and EPS of $1.73, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 20.51x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 12.91x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth ahead. This gap between trailing and forward PE — a 37% compression — suggests that analysts are projecting EPS to rise from the trailing level to the estimated average of $12.20, which would represent a substantial earnings acceleration. The PEG ratio of 4.41, however, indicates that the current PE is high relative to the expected growth rate, which could be a cautionary signal if growth expectations are not met.
Comparing FTI Consulting's valuation to the broader Industrials sector and consulting services peers, the stock appears to be trading at a discount on most metrics. The PS ratio of 1.47x and EV/Sales of 1.25x are notably low for a professional services firm with 10.7% revenue growth and 15.6% ROE, suggesting the market is pricing in significant skepticism. The EV/EBITDA of 13.40x is moderate for the sector, while the PB ratio of 3.21x reflects the asset-light nature of the consulting business. The forward PE of 12.91x is particularly compelling when compared to the broader market's forward multiple, implying that FCN is being valued as a low-growth or cyclical business despite its consistent revenue expansion and counter-cyclical characteristics. The discount appears unjustified given the company's record earnings and diversified revenue base, though the market may be concerned about the sustainability of restructuring-driven demand.
Historically, FTI Consulting's valuation has been significantly higher. The PE ratio reached 33.84x in Q4 2024 and 30.23x in Q3 2024, while the PS ratio was 7.52x and 8.68x in those same periods, respectively. The current PS ratio of 1.47x is a fraction of the 5.43x seen as recently as Q4 2025 on a quarterly basis, and the PE of 20.51x is well below the 24.66x recorded in Q4 2025. This compression to multi-year lows in valuation multiples, combined with the stock trading near its 52-week low, suggests the market is pricing in a pessimistic scenario that may not materialize given the company's fundamental strength. The historical context indicates that either the market has repriced the stock's growth prospects downward permanently, or the current valuation represents a significant mean-reversion opportunity.
PE
20.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
FTI Consulting faces financial risks primarily from margin compression and earnings volatility. Q4 2025 gross margin declined to 31.05% from 33.25% in Q3, while operating margin fell to 9.43% from 12.31%, and net margin was just 5.50% due to a 37.1% effective tax rate and $35.3M in interest expense. The PEG ratio of 4.41 indicates the trailing PE of 20.51x is high relative to expected growth, and the cash flow coverage ratio of 0.61 with interest coverage of 2.65x in Q4 are areas to monitor. Revenue concentration in the Corporate Finance segment ($423.2M, or 42.7% of Q4 revenue) exposes the company to cyclical restructuring demand, and the quarterly cash flow volatility (Q1 2025 operating cash flow of -$465.2M) highlights working capital risk.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if the stock's premium to peers erodes further, though FCN currently trades at a discount on most metrics (PS of 1.47x, EV/Sales of 1.25x). The negative beta of -0.057 means the stock moves independently of the market, offering diversification but also implying idiosyncratic headwinds that could persist. Sparse analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) and cautious sentiment (Truist downgrade to Hold, Goldman Neutral) suggest limited institutional support, while the short ratio of 7.04 indicates elevated bearish positioning. Regulatory and macro sensitivity are moderate given the counter-cyclical nature of restructuring, but a strong economy could reduce demand for Corporate Finance services.
A worst-case scenario would involve a breakdown below the 52-week low of $137.65, triggering further selling and potentially opening the door to new multi-year lows. If restructuring demand peaks and margins continue to compress, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $171.00 (which is above current price, so this is not a downside target) — more realistically, a decline to the 52-week low of $137.65 represents a -2.5% loss from the current price of $141.18, but a more severe scenario could see a drop to $120-$125, implying a -11% to -15% decline. The maximum drawdown of -24.93% over the past year shows the stock can fall sharply, and a repeat of that magnitude from the current price would imply a drop to approximately $106, a -25% loss. Investors should be prepared for significant downside if the bear case materializes.
FAQ
The most severe risk is margin compression: Q4 2025 gross margin fell to 31.05% from 33.25% in Q3, and operating margin declined to 9.43% from 12.31%, with a 37.1% effective tax rate further pressuring net income. Second, revenue concentration in the Corporate Finance segment (42.7% of Q4 revenue) exposes the company to cyclical restructuring demand, which could fade in a strong economy. Third, the stock's negative beta of -0.057 and sparse analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) create idiosyncratic risk and potential for sharp declines if sentiment worsens. Fourth, a breakdown below the 52-week low of $137.65 could trigger technical selling, with a realistic downside to $120-$125 (-11% to -15%).
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a bull case (25% probability) targeting $171-$180 if margins stabilize and the stock re-rates toward analyst targets; a base case (50% probability) targeting $150-$165 as the stock trades in a range awaiting clearer evidence; and a bear case (25% probability) targeting $120-$137.65 if margin compression worsens and the stock breaks below its 52-week low. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue growth decelerates to 5-7% and gross margin stabilizes around 31-32%. The key assumption is that the forward PE remains in the 12-13x range on estimated EPS of $12.20, implying a price of $150-$165.
FCN appears undervalued on most metrics. The forward PE of 12.91x is a 37% discount to the trailing PE of 20.51x and well below the 33.84x seen in Q4 2024, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The PS ratio of 1.47x and EV/Sales of 1.25x are low for a professional services firm with 10.7% revenue growth and 15.6% ROE. Compared to its own history, the current PS of 1.47x is a fraction of the 5.43x seen in Q4 2025, suggesting a multi-year valuation low. The market is pricing in a pessimistic scenario about margin sustainability and restructuring demand, which may not materialize given the company's record earnings.
From a risk/reward perspective, FCN offers a favorable asymmetry for value-oriented investors: the average analyst target of $175.50 implies 24.3% upside, while the 52-week low of $137.65 represents only 2.5% downside from the current price of $141.18. The forward PE of 12.91x is well below the trailing PE of 20.51x and the broader market, suggesting the stock is priced for pessimism. However, the biggest downside risk is a breakdown below $137.65, which could trigger a decline to $120-$125 (-11% to -15%). For investors with a 12-18 month horizon and tolerance for volatility, FCN is a good buy at current levels, but it is not suitable for those seeking near-term momentum or income (no dividend).
FCN is better suited for long-term investment (minimum 12-18 months) given its value-oriented profile, negative beta of -0.057, and lack of dividend income. The stock is in a sustained downtrend with accelerating negative momentum (-8.19% over one month), making it a poor candidate for short-term trading unless a clear reversal catalyst emerges. The counter-cyclical business model and diversified segments provide long-term stability, but earnings visibility is moderate due to restructuring demand cycles. A patient investor could accumulate shares near the 52-week low of $137.65, with a target of $171-$180 over 12-18 months, but should be prepared for further volatility in the near term.
