Expeditors International
EXPD
$190.94
+0.98%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is a non-asset-based third-party logistics provider operating in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, offering international freight forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, purchase order management, and other value-added logistics services across more than 200 full-service office locations worldwide. The company contracts with airlines and ocean carriers rather than owning transport assets, giving it an asset-light, high-return operating model that distinguishes it from capital-intensive carriers and integrated parcel networks. In 2025, Expeditors derived 36% of consolidated gross revenue from airfreight, 25% from ocean freight, and 39% from customs brokerage and other services, making it a diversified but trade-cycle-sensitive intermediary. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between a powerful share-price re-rating — up roughly 54% over the past year — and deteriorating freight fundamentals, including a 33% plunge in ocean freight revenue and margin pressure highlighted in recent earnings coverage, alongside a consensus analyst recommendation that remains firmly at 'hold.'…
EXPD
Expeditors International
$190.94
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EXPD Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that EXPD is a high-quality, asset-light logistics franchise with exceptional returns on capital, but the stock has rallied 53.92% over the past year to trade 6.9% above the consensus analyst target of $177.71, leaving an unfavorable risk/reward for new capital. The consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean of 3.18, and the 14-analyst target range of $100 to $220 signals deep disagreement about the company's trajectory.
Supporting evidence for the Hold rating includes: (1) valuation is stretched, with a trailing PE of 24.96x and forward PE of 24.09x versus a sector multiple in the mid-to-high teens, and a PEG ratio of 6.52; (2) revenue growth is only 4.37% YoY in Q1 2026, and ocean freight revenue is down 33%, so the top line is not accelerating; (3) profitability is robust but compressing, with a trailing net margin of 7.35% and operating margin of 9.51%, while gross margin has been volatile; (4) free cash flow is strong at $920.6 million TTM, funding a 1.03% dividend yield and $287.6 million of Q1 2026 buybacks; and (5) the stock trades above the consensus average target, implying -6.9% downside to fair value. The exceptional ROE of 34.55% and ROA of 15.23% justify some premium, but not the current extreme.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the Hold thesis are a continued ocean freight collapse, multiple compression toward the historical PE band, and a failed technical breakout below the 180–185 support zone. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back toward the analyst average target of $177.71 or if ocean freight revenue stabilizes and earnings growth accelerates above 10%; it would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or if the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $112.95. On balance, EXPD is fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to its history and peers, and the current price already discounts a freight-market recovery that has not yet materialized.
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EXPD 12-Month Price Forecast
EXPD is a high-quality franchise with a fortress balance sheet and exceptional returns, but the stock has run ahead of fundamentals and analyst fair value. The base case of $170–185 implies modest downside from the current $190.94, with a 55% probability, while the bear case of $100–130 carries a meaningful 25% probability given the ocean freight collapse and premium valuation. The bull case requires a freight-rate recovery that is not yet visible in the data. I would upgrade to bullish if ocean freight revenue stabilizes and revenue growth accelerates above 8%, or if the stock pulls back to the $170–175 range; I would downgrade to bearish if gross margin falls below 14% or if the stock breaks below the 180–185 support zone on high volume.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expeditors International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $177.71 and implied upside of -6.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$177.71
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-6.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$100 - $220
Analyst target range
Coverage on Expeditors is moderate, with 14 analysts contributing to the consensus, and the sentiment is decidedly cautious: the consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a recommendation mean of 3.18 (where 3.0 is Hold and 4.0 is Sell on the standard scale), indicating the average analyst leans toward the bearish side of neutral. The average target price is $177.71, which against the current price of $190.94 implies roughly -6.9% downside — a rare setup where the stock trades above the consensus fair value estimate. This means the market has run ahead of the analyst community, and the consensus is effectively signaling that the recent rally has overshot fundamentals. The target range is extremely wide, from a low of $100.00 to a high of $220.00, a spread of 120% of the low target that signals very high uncertainty and deep disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $220 implies roughly 15% upside and would require either multiple expansion beyond current levels or a sharp rebound in freight rates and volumes that restores earnings growth — essentially a cyclical recovery thesis. The low target of $100 implies roughly 48% downside and prices in a severe scenario: continued ocean freight revenue collapse, margin compression toward historical troughs, and multiple contraction back toward the low end of the historical PE band. Institutional ratings show a stable but unenthusiastic pattern — UBS maintains a Buy, Barclays and JP Morgan both carry Underweight ratings, and Stifel, Truist, Susquehanna, and Freedom Broker are all Hold/Neutral — with no recent upgrades visible in the data, suggesting analysts are waiting for evidence of a fundamental inflection before turning constructive. The combination of a stock trading above consensus target, a 'hold' rating, and a 120-point target spread tells a clear story: this is a high-conviction-free zone where the price has detached from analyst fair value, and the burden of proof now falls on upcoming earnings to justify the rally.
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Bulls vs Bears: EXPD Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence: the stock trades 6.9% above the consensus analyst target, the consensus rating is 'hold' with a bearish-leaning mean of 3.18, ocean freight revenue is down 33%, and the PEG ratio of 6.52 signals a rich price for decelerating growth. The bull case rests on exceptional returns (ROE 34.55%), a fortress balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.242), and strong free cash flow ($920.6 million TTM), but these are quality attributes rather than growth drivers. The single most important tension is whether the recent revenue stabilization (Q1 2026 +4.37% YoY) marks a true inflection or merely a pause before further freight-market deterioration. If ocean freight rates recover and earnings growth reaccelerates, the premium multiple could be justified; if not, the stock faces meaningful multiple compression toward the analyst average target of $177.71 or lower.
Bullish
- Fortress balance sheet, minimal debt: Debt-to-equity is just 0.242 and the current ratio is 1.81, with $1.316 billion of cash at Q1 2026. This net-cash position means EXPD depends on no external financing and can sustain buybacks and dividends through a freight downturn.
- Exceptional returns on capital: ROE of 34.55% and ROA of 15.23% are far above what asset-heavy logistics peers generate, reflecting the non-asset-based model. These returns underpin the premium multiple and provide a durable competitive advantage.
- Strong free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow is $920.6 million, with Q1 2026 FCF of $296.6 million against capital expenditure of only $12.6 million. This cash generation comfortably funds the $287.6 million of Q1 2026 buybacks and the 1.03% dividend yield.
- Market leadership with idiosyncratic demand: EXPD is up 53.92% over the past year, outperforming SPY by 38.91 percentage points, and its 1-month relative strength of +3.37 points came while SPY fell 0.96%. With a beta of only 1.058, this outperformance reflects genuine stock-specific buying rather than market leverage.
Bearish
- Stock trades above analyst fair value: The consensus average target is $177.71, implying roughly -6.9% downside from the current $190.94, while the consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean of 3.18. The market has run ahead of the analyst community, and the burden of proof now falls on upcoming earnings.
- Ocean freight revenue collapsing 33%: Ocean freight and services contributed only $598.9 million in Q1 2026, consistent with the reported 33% plunge in ocean freight revenue. This is a core segment at 25% of 2025 gross revenue, and continued weakness will pressure both top line and margins.
- Valuation stretched versus history and peers: The trailing PE of 24.96x and forward PE of 24.09x represent a 30–50% premium to the typical Industrials sector multiple in the mid-to-high teens. The PEG ratio of 6.52 and price-to-book of 8.59x are near the high end of historical ranges, leaving little cushion if growth disappoints.
- Flat earnings growth priced in: The trailing-to-forward PE gap is only about 0.9x, implying the market expects essentially flat earnings growth over the next twelve months, consistent with the consensus EPS estimate of $8.13. Without an earnings inflection, multiple expansion is unlikely to drive further gains.
EXPD Technical Analysis
EXPD is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, with the stock up 53.92% over the past year and 25.73% year-to-date, closing at 190.94 against a 52-week range of 112.95 to 194.59. That places the current price at approximately 95.7% of its 52-week range — just 1.9% below the 52-week high — a positioning that signals strong momentum but also meaningful overextension risk, since there is very little overhead price discovery left. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY of +38.91 percentage points confirms this is a market leader, not a laggard riding beta, though the proximity to highs means the margin of safety for new entries is thin. Recent momentum remains positive but is decelerating relative to the longer-term trend: the 1-month change of +2.41% and 3-month change of +18.36% are both solidly positive, yet the 1-month figure is far smaller than the 6-month gain of +30.47%, indicating the pace of advance has cooled. Notably, the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is +3.37 percentage points, meaning EXPD outperformed a slightly negative market (SPY -0.96% over 1 month), which is a constructive sign of idiosyncratic demand rather than broad market lift. The stock's beta of 1.058 is only marginally above the market, so the recent outperformance is not explained by leverage to a rising tape — it reflects genuine stock-specific buying, though the modest beta also means position sizing need not be aggressively discounted for volatility. Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of 112.95, with the more relevant near-term support around the 180–185 zone where the stock consolidated in August, while resistance is the 52-week high of 194.59. A clean breakout above 194.59 would confirm the uptrend and likely invite momentum-chasing flows, whereas a breakdown below the 180 area would signal a failed breakout and expose the stock to a mean-reversion move toward the 160s. The maximum drawdown of -15.88% over the period shows the stock can correct sharply even within a bull trend, and the short ratio of 4.25 days suggests short sellers are not a major force — removing a potential squeeze catalyst but also indicating limited bearish conviction at these levels.
Beta
1.06
1.06x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$113-$195
Price range past year
Annual Return
+53.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.4% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +18.4% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +30.5% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +53.9% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +25.7% | +11.7% |
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EXPD Fundamental Analysis
Expeditors' revenue trajectory is modestly growing but decelerating at the core: Q1 2026 revenue of $2.783 billion grew 4.37% year-over-year against Q1 2025's $2.666 billion, a positive but low-single-digit pace. The multi-quarter trend is uneven — Q4 2025 revenue of $2.856 billion was actually below Q4 2024's $2.955 billion, and Q3 2025's $2.895 billion trailed Q3 2024's $3.000 billion — meaning the YoY growth in Q1 2026 is a stabilization rather than an acceleration. Segment data reveals the drag: ocean freight and ocean services contributed only $598.9 million, consistent with the reported 33% plunge in ocean freight revenue, while airfreight at $1.031 billion and customs brokerage/other at $1.153 billion carry the load. The implication for the investment case is that EXPD is a share-gainer in a shrinking freight-rate environment, and top-line growth will remain tethered to trade volumes and pricing rather than any structural acceleration. Profitability remains robust but is compressing: Q1 2026 net income was $229.6 million on a net margin of 8.25%, with gross margin of 34.92% in that quarter — though the quarterly gross margin is volatile (Q4 2025 was just 14.47%, Q3 2025 16.05%, Q2 2025 15.59%), reflecting the pass-through nature of freight costs. The trailing net margin of 7.35% and operating margin of 9.51% are healthy for a logistics intermediary, and ROE of 34.55% and ROA of 15.23% are exceptional, indicating the asset-light model converts revenue into shareholder returns efficiently. Still, the direction of travel is unfavorable — Q1 2026 net income of $229.6 million was below Q1 2025's $203.8 million only on a comparable basis after adjusting for the prior-year comparison, and the reported margin pressure in ocean freight suggests further compression risk if rates stay depressed. The balance sheet is a fortress: debt-to-equity is just 0.242, the current ratio is 1.81, and cash at the end of Q1 2026 stood at $1.316 billion. Free cash flow is strong and consistent — $296.6 million in Q1 2026, $270.3 million in Q4 2025, and $920.6 million on a trailing-twelve-month basis — comfortably funding the $287.6 million of stock repurchased in Q1 2026 and the modest dividend (payout ratio 25.49%, yield 1.03%). With operating cash flow of $309.2 million in Q1 2026 against capital expenditure of only $12.6 million, the company generates cash far in excess of its reinvestment needs, meaning it depends on no external financing and returns essentially all excess capital to shareholders — a low-risk financial profile, though one that also caps the growth reinvestment story.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
34.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$920552000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPD Overvalued?
Because Expeditors is solidly profitable — Q1 2026 net income of $229.6 million and trailing EPS positive — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 24.96x and a forward PE of 24.09x, an unusually narrow gap of roughly 0.9x that implies the market expects essentially flat earnings growth over the next twelve months, consistent with the consensus EPS estimate of $8.13 versus the current run-rate. That compressed trailing-to-forward spread is a warning sign: in a genuine growth story, the forward multiple would sit meaningfully below the trailing multiple as earnings expand into the valuation. On a price-to-sales basis, EXPD trades at 1.83x, and its EV/EBITDA of 16.94x and price-to-book of 8.59x both sit at elevated absolute levels for a freight forwarder, while the PEG ratio of 6.52 signals the market is paying a very rich price relative to expected earnings growth. Compared with the broader Industrials sector and Integrated Freight & Logistics peers, EXPD's trailing PE of 24.96x and forward PE of 24.09x represent a premium to the typical sector multiple in the mid-to-high teens, a spread of roughly 30–50% depending on the peer set. That premium is partially justified by the company's exceptional returns — ROE of 34.55% and ROA of 15.23% are far above what asset-heavy logistics peers generate — and by its net-cash balance sheet and consistent free cash flow. However, the premium is harder to defend when revenue growth is only 4.37% YoY and ocean freight revenue is collapsing 33%, suggesting the market is capitalizing peak-quality margins on a cyclically challenged top line. Against its own history, EXPD's valuation is near the top of its multi-year band: the PE ratio has ranged from roughly 8.6x in Q3 2022 and 12.5x in Q4 2021 up to 29.2x in Q4 2023, and the current 24.96x sits in the upper quartile of that range. The price-to-book of 8.59x is also near the high end versus historical readings of 4.1x–8.5x over the past several years, and the price-to-sales of 1.83x compares with historical PS readings that ranged from roughly 3.3x to 8.1x on the older share count — though the current figure reflects the post-appreciation share base. The takeaway is that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for a company whose fundamental growth is decelerating, leaving limited valuation cushion if freight markets weaken further.
PE
25.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin compression and revenue concentration. Gross margin is highly volatile, swinging from 34.92% in Q1 2026 to just 14.47% in Q4 2025, because freight costs are passed through and small pricing changes swing profitability. Ocean freight revenue, 25% of 2025 gross revenue, has plunged 33%, and Q1 2026 net income of $229.6 million was only modestly above Q1 2025's $203.8 million despite the revenue growth, showing that profitability is not scaling with the top line. The company's asset-light model limits capital risk, but it also means EXPD has little control over the freight rates that determine its margins.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression. At a trailing PE of 24.96x and forward PE of 24.09x, EXPD trades at a 30–50% premium to the typical Industrials sector multiple, and its PEG ratio of 6.52 is elevated for a company growing revenue at only 4.37% YoY. The beta of 1.058 means the stock is only marginally more volatile than the market, so a broad market selloff would not be amplified, but sector rotation away from premium-priced logistics names could hit EXPD disproportionately. Recent news already highlights the tension: the February 2026 earnings beat was overshadowed by the ocean freight slump and margin pressure, and with no recent analyst upgrades, the stock is vulnerable to any negative freight data point.
The worst-case scenario is a continued collapse in ocean freight rates combined with multiple contraction. If ocean freight revenue stays depressed, margins compress toward historical troughs, and the market re-rates EXPD toward the low end of its historical PE band, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $100, roughly 48% below the current $190.94. A less severe but still damaging outcome would be a move to the 52-week low of $112.95, a decline of about 41%, or a mean-reversion to the $160s support zone, a drop of roughly 15%. The maximum drawdown of -15.88% over the past period shows the stock can correct sharply even within a bull trend, and the thin 1.9% cushion below the 52-week high means there is little technical support until the 180–185 consolidation zone.
FAQ
The most severe risk is the collapse in ocean freight revenue, which fell 33% and contributed only $598.9 million in Q1 2026, pressuring both the top line and margins. Second is valuation compression: at 24.96x trailing PE and a PEG of 6.52, the stock trades at a premium to peers and its own history, and a re-rating toward the sector multiple could cut the price by 30% or more. Third is margin volatility, with gross margin swinging from 34.92% in Q1 2026 to 14.47% in Q4 2025, reflecting the pass-through nature of freight costs and limited pricing power. Fourth is macro and trade sensitivity: as a global freight forwarder, EXPD is exposed to trade volumes and tariff policy, and its beta of 1.058 means it is not insulated from broad market declines. These risks are ranked from most to least severe, with the ocean freight decline and valuation compression being the most immediate threats.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a base case with 55% probability targeting $170–185, a bear case with 25% probability targeting $100–130, and a bull case with 20% probability targeting $210–220. The base case assumes revenue growth remains in the 3–5% range and the stock drifts toward the analyst average target of $177.71, implying modest downside from the current $190.94. The bear case is driven by a continued ocean freight collapse and multiple compression toward the historical low end, while the bull case requires a freight-rate recovery and earnings acceleration. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption being that ocean freight revenue stabilizes but does not meaningfully recover, keeping earnings growth flat and the valuation premium under pressure.
EXPD appears overvalued on both absolute and relative bases. The trailing PE of 24.96x and forward PE of 24.09x represent a 30–50% premium to the typical Industrials sector multiple in the mid-to-high teens, and the PEG ratio of 6.52 signals the market is paying a very rich price for expected earnings growth. The price-to-book of 8.59x is near the high end of its historical range of 4.1x–8.5x, and the current PE sits in the upper quartile of its multi-year band of roughly 8.6x to 29.2x. The narrow trailing-to-forward PE gap of about 0.9x implies the market expects essentially flat earnings growth, which is inconsistent with a premium multiple. The market is pricing in a freight-market recovery that has not yet materialized, leaving limited valuation cushion if conditions worsen.
From a risk/reward perspective, EXPD is not an attractive new buy at the current price of $190.94. The stock trades 6.9% above the consensus analyst target of $177.71, implying downside to fair value, and the consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a bearish-leaning mean of 3.18. The biggest downside risk is a continued ocean freight collapse, which has already driven a 33% revenue decline in that segment and could push the stock toward the analyst low target of $100, roughly 48% below current levels. However, the company's exceptional ROE of 34.55%, fortress balance sheet with debt-to-equity of 0.242, and $920.6 million in TTM free cash flow provide substantial downside support. For long-term investors with a 3–5 year horizon, a pullback toward the $170–175 range would offer a more favorable entry point; for short-term traders, the momentum is positive but the stock is technically overextended near its 52-week high.
EXPD is better suited for long-term investment than short-term trading. The company is a mature, asset-light logistics provider with a beta of 1.058, a modest 1.03% dividend yield, and a 25.49% payout ratio, offering steady but unspectacular returns. Its earnings visibility is moderate, tied to global trade volumes and freight rates, and the stock's 53.92% one-year rally has left it technically overextended near its 52-week high, increasing the risk of a near-term pullback. For long-term investors, the exceptional ROE of 34.55%, strong free cash flow of $920.6 million TTM, and fortress balance sheet support a buy-and-hold approach with a minimum holding period of 3–5 years to ride out freight cycles. Short-term traders should be cautious given the stock trades above the consensus target and the risk/reward is unfavorable at current levels.
