Mondelez International
MDLZ
$59.86
-0.68%
Mondelez International is a global snacking powerhouse, operating primarily in the biscuit, chocolate, gum/candy, and beverage categories with iconic brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Chips Ahoy. As a leading player in the food confectionery industry, the company distinguishes itself through its vast portfolio of billion-dollar brands and deep distribution across developed and emerging markets. The current investor narrative centers on Mondelez's ability to sustain mid-single-digit organic revenue growth amid input cost inflation and shifting consumer preferences, while also navigating margin pressures from European energy cost headwinds and a competitive promotional environment. Recent news highlights record Valentine's Day candy spending and the company's consistent dividend policy, reinforcing its defensive appeal, but also flags potential margin compression from Europe's energy crisis.…
MDLZ
Mondelez International
$59.86
MDLZ 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Mondelez International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $67.27 and implied upside of +12.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$67.27
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$55 - $75
Analyst target range
Mondelez is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 1.91 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $67.27, implying approximately 10.3% upside from the current price of $61.00. The distribution leans bullish, with recent ratings from Barclays, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley all at Overweight or Buy, while UBS and Deutsche Bank are more cautious with Neutral/Hold ratings. The consensus is moderately bullish, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and margin recovery. The target price range spans from a low of $55.00 to a high of $75.00. The high target of $75.00 assumes successful margin expansion and sustained revenue growth, potentially driven by pricing power and cost savings. The low target of $55.00 prices in continued margin compression, competitive pressures, or a recessionary impact on consumer spending. The spread of $20.00 (36% of the low target) indicates moderate uncertainty among analysts. Recent rating actions show no major downgrades; most firms reaffirmed their positions after Q1 2026 earnings, suggesting stability in sentiment. The wide range reflects the debate around margin recovery and growth sustainability.
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Bulls vs Bears: MDLZ Investment Factors
Mondelez presents a mixed picture: revenue growth is accelerating at 8.24% YoY, and the forward P/E of 18.07x is reasonable, with analysts seeing 10.3% upside. However, gross margins have compressed sharply to 27.81%, net margins are below industry average, and the stock has significantly underperformed the market. The bull case hinges on margin recovery and sustained growth, while the bear case focuses on persistent margin pressure and competitive headwinds. Currently, the bearish evidence from margin trends and price performance is stronger, but the forward valuation and analyst sentiment tilt bullish. The key tension is whether margin compression is cyclical or structural—if margins recover, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, further downside is likely.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating to 8.24% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $10.08 billion grew 8.24% year-over-year, accelerating from 4.7% in Q4 2025 and 3.5% in Q1 2025. This shows strong momentum in core biscuit and chocolate segments, which together account for over 80% of sales.
- Forward P/E of 18.07x is attractive: The forward P/E of 18.07x is well below the trailing P/E of 28.48x and in line with the industry average for food confectioners. This implies the market expects significant earnings growth, and the stock may be undervalued on forward earnings.
- Analyst consensus Buy with 10.3% upside: 22 analysts rate MDLZ a Buy (mean 1.91 on 1-5 scale) with an average target of $67.27, implying 10.3% upside from $61.00. The high target of $75.00 suggests potential for 23% upside if margin recovery materializes.
- Strong free cash flow of $2.575 billion: TTM free cash flow of $2.575 billion provides ample coverage for dividends and capex. The dividend yield of 3.57% is well-supported, reinforcing the stock's defensive income appeal.
Bearish
- Gross margin compression to 27.81%: Gross margin fell from 38.64% in Q4 2024 to 27.81% in Q1 2026, a decline of over 1000 basis points. This reflects higher input costs and unfavorable mix, pressuring profitability.
- Net margin of 5.56% below industry average: Net margin in Q1 2026 was 5.56%, down from 18.17% in Q4 2024 and below the typical industry average for food confectioners. This indicates weak bottom-line performance despite revenue growth.
- Stock underperformed S&P 500 by 30.96% in 1 year: MDLZ returned -12.6% over the past year versus +18.4% for the S&P 500, a relative underperformance of 30.96%. The stock is in a downtrend and has not recovered to its 52-week high of $71.15.
- Low current ratio of 0.59 indicates liquidity risk: A current ratio of 0.59 means current liabilities exceed current assets, suggesting potential short-term liquidity stress if cash flows deteriorate. This is a concern for a consumer staples company.
MDLZ Technical Analysis
Mondelez is in a broad downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -12.6%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.4% gain. The current price of $61.00 sits at 85.7% of its 52-week range ($51.20 low to $71.15 high), indicating the stock is closer to the lower end of its range and has not yet recovered to its highs. This positioning suggests the stock may be offering a value opportunity if the downtrend reverses, but it also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of bullish momentum. The 1-month price change of +0.23% is essentially flat, while the 3-month change of +6.55% shows a modest recovery from the March lows near $54.35. However, the 1-year trend remains negative, creating a divergence where short-term momentum is improving but has not yet reversed the longer-term downtrend. This could signal a potential trend reversal if the recovery continues, or it may be a temporary pullback within a larger bearish pattern. The stock's beta of 0.408 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to move less dramatically than the S&P 500. Key support is at the 52-week low of $51.20, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $71.15. A breakout above $71.15 would signal a strong reversal and renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $51.20 would indicate further downside and a continuation of the downtrend. Given the low beta, the stock is less sensitive to broad market swings, making it a relatively defensive holding.
Beta
0.41
0.41x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$51-$71
Price range past year
Annual Return
-13.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDLZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.4% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +6.8% | +5.2% |
| 6m | +4.0% | +8.6% |
| 1y | -13.8% | +19.0% |
| ytd | +11.6% | +9.7% |
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MDLZ Fundamental Analysis
Mondelez reported Q1 2026 revenue of $10.08 billion, up 8.24% year-over-year, accelerating from the 4.7% growth in Q4 2025 and the 3.5% growth in Q1 2025. The revenue trajectory is clearly improving, driven by strong performance in biscuits ($4.54 billion) and chocolate ($3.60 billion), which together account for over 80% of segment sales. The company is benefiting from pricing actions and volume resilience in its core categories, though the gum/candy segment ($1.05 billion) remains a smaller contributor. This growth acceleration supports the investment case for Mondelez as a stable grower in the consumer staples space. Net income for Q1 2026 was $560 million, with a gross margin of 27.81%, down from 32.69% in Q2 2025 and 38.64% in Q4 2024, indicating margin compression due to higher input costs and unfavorable mix. Operating margin was 8.53% in Q1 2026, compared to 13.05% in Q2 2025, showing a clear downward trend. The company is still profitable, but margins are under pressure, which is a key concern for investors. The net margin of 5.56% is below the industry average for food confectioners, highlighting the need for cost discipline. Mondelez has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, which is moderate, and a current ratio of 0.59, indicating relatively low liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $2.575 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends and capex. The ROE of 9.49% is reasonable but not exceptional. The company generates sufficient cash to fund its operations and dividend, but the low current ratio suggests potential short-term liquidity risk if cash flows deteriorate.
Quarterly Revenue
$10.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
27.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDLZ Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($560 million in Q1 2026), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 28.48x, while the forward P/E is 18.07x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp recovery in earnings, likely due to margin expansion or lower one-time charges. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically around 20-25x for food confectioners), Mondelez's trailing P/E of 28.48x appears elevated, but the forward P/E of 18.07x is more in line with peers. The stock trades at a premium on trailing earnings but at a discount on forward earnings, indicating that the market is pricing in a strong earnings rebound. Historically, Mondelez's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 11x to 55x over the past five years. The current 28.48x is near the middle of that range, suggesting it is not excessively overvalued or undervalued relative to its own history. The P/S ratio of 1.81x is below the 5-year average of around 10x, reflecting the recent price decline and revenue growth. This low P/S could indicate a value opportunity if the company's margins recover.
PE
28.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 11x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Mondelez's gross margin has compressed from 38.64% in Q4 2024 to 27.81% in Q1 2026, a decline of over 1000 bps, driven by higher input costs and unfavorable mix. Net margin fell to 5.56% in Q1 2026 from 18.17% in Q4 2024, indicating significant earnings pressure. The current ratio of 0.59 is low, suggesting potential liquidity risk if cash flows weaken. Debt-to-equity of 0.87 is moderate, but the combination of margin compression and low liquidity could strain the balance sheet if the downturn persists.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.408 indicates low market correlation, but the 1-year relative strength of -30.96% versus the S&P 500 shows severe underperformance. Valuation risk exists with a trailing P/E of 28.48x, which is elevated compared to the forward P/E of 18.07x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings rebound. If that rebound fails to materialize, the stock could de-rate. Competitive pressures from private labels and promotional activity in Europe, along with the region's energy crisis (as highlighted by recent news), could further compress margins.
Worst-Case Scenario: If margin compression continues due to sustained input cost inflation and competitive pressures, earnings could disappoint, leading to analyst downgrades and multiple contraction. The 52-week low of $51.20 represents a 16.1% downside from the current price of $61.00. In a severe recession scenario, the stock could test the low target of $55.00 (9.8% downside) or even break below $51.20, implying a potential loss of 16% or more. The historical max drawdown of -27.19% suggests a worst-case decline to around $44.40, a 27% loss from current levels.
