Restaurant Brands International
QSR
$75.01
-2.77%
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is a global quick-service restaurant company that franchises and operates over 33,000 locations under the Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs brands across more than 120 markets. As one of the largest restaurant companies in the world by system sales, it holds a distinct competitive position through its asset-light, franchise-heavy business model that generates stable royalty and rental income. The current investor narrative centers on the accelerating turnaround at Burger King, which posted 5.8% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, and the potential for margin expansion as the company benefits from refranchising and cost initiatives. Recent news also highlights a favorable valuation benchmark set by Yum Brands' Pizza Hut sale, which has drawn attention to QSR as a relatively undervalued peer in the space.…
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
$75.01
Related headlines
QSR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Restaurant Brands International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $85.50 and implied upside of +14.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$85.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$79 - $100
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 24 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.89 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $85.50, implying approximately 15.3% upside from the current price of $74.18. The distribution leans bullish, with recent ratings from Deutsche Bank (Buy), Guggenheim (Buy), UBS (Buy), and Barclays (Overweight), while TD Cowen and Citigroup maintain Hold/Neutral stances. The target range spans from a low of $79.00 to a high of $100.00, representing a spread of $21.00. The high target of $100 assumes successful execution of the Burger King turnaround, margin expansion, and potential multiple expansion as the market re-rates the stock. The low target of $79 reflects a more conservative view, pricing in slower growth or macro headwinds. The relatively wide spread indicates uncertainty about the pace of recovery, but the overall bullish consensus suggests analysts see a favorable risk/reward. Recent upgrades and reiterations (e.g., Deutsche Bank, Guggenheim) reinforce positive sentiment, while no downgrades have been noted in the past three months.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: QSR Investment Factors
QSR presents a compelling turnaround story with the Burger King brand showing strong same-store sales growth and significant margin expansion. The forward valuation is attractive, with a 15.3% upside to the average analyst target and a 4.86% dividend yield. However, the stock has persistently underperformed the market, and the high debt load and trailing P/E premium to peers are concerns. The single most important tension is whether the margin expansion and earnings recovery can be sustained; if they are, the stock could re-rate higher, but any stumble could lead to a sharp de-rating given the elevated expectations. Overall, the bull case currently has stronger evidence given the improving fundamentals and discounted forward valuation.
Bullish
- Burger King Turnaround Gaining Traction: Burger King posted 5.8% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, confirming the turnaround is accelerating. This is the primary catalyst driving revenue growth and margin expansion.
- Significant Margin Expansion: Gross margin improved from 33.4% in Q1 2025 to 49.6% in Q1 2026, and operating margin expanded from 20.6% to 27.0%. This reflects strong operational leverage and cost management.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 16.7x is at a 24% discount to the industry average of 22x, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the expected earnings recovery. The average analyst target of $85.50 implies 15.3% upside.
- Strong Free Cash Flow and Dividend: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.514 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends. The dividend yield is 4.86%, offering a solid income component.
Bearish
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 is elevated, increasing financial risk. Interest expense of $171 million in Q1 2026 consumes a significant portion of operating income.
- Persistent Underperformance vs S&P 500: 1-year relative strength is -10.2%, and the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. This suggests structural headwinds or lack of investor conviction.
- Trailing P/E Premium to Industry: Trailing P/E of 28.9x is 31% above the industry average of 22x, indicating the stock is not cheap on historical earnings. The gap implies high expectations for future growth.
- Negative PEG Ratio: PEG ratio of -1.09 reflects negative past earnings growth, raising questions about the sustainability of the turnaround. If growth disappoints, the stock could de-rate.
QSR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a broad uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +10.7%, though it has underperformed the S&P 500's 20.9% gain over the same period. Currently trading at $74.18, the stock sits at 90.5% of its 52-week range ($61.33–$81.96), indicating it is closer to the highs but not overextended. This positioning suggests positive momentum but also implies that much of the recent optimism may already be priced in. Short-term momentum has weakened, with the 1-month price change of -1.9% and 3-month change of -4.4%, diverging from the 1-year uptrend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or consolidation phase, especially as the stock has declined from its April 2026 peak near $81. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is negative across all time frames, with a 1-month relative strength of -2.5% and 1-year relative strength of -10.2%, indicating persistent underperformance. The 52-week low of $61.33 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $81.96 acts as key resistance. A breakout above $82 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $61 could indicate a trend reversal. Beta is 0.53, meaning the stock is significantly less volatile than the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also limits upside participation in strong market rallies.
Beta
0.53
0.53x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$61-$82
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | QSR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.1% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -4.2% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +9.8% | +7.5% |
| 1y | +7.8% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +10.6% | +9.0% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
QSR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.264 billion, up 7.4% year-over-year from $2.109 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows acceleration: Q2 2025 revenue was $2.41 billion (+15.8% YoY), Q3 2025 was $2.449 billion (+6.9% YoY), and Q4 2025 was $2.466 billion (+7.4% YoY). The growth is driven by Burger King's turnaround (segment revenue of $365 million in Q1 2026) and Tim Hortons' strong performance ($997 million), while Popeyes ($190 million) and Firehouse Subs ($60 million) contribute smaller but stable amounts. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $338 million and a net margin of 14.9%, up from 7.5% in Q1 2025. Gross margin improved to 49.6% in Q1 2026 from 33.4% a year earlier, reflecting better cost management and mix shift toward higher-margin franchise revenue. Operating margin expanded to 27.0% from 20.6%, indicating strong operational leverage. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84, which is high but typical for the restaurant industry given the franchise model. Free cash flow was $169 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.514 billion, providing ample coverage for the $283 million in dividends paid. ROE is 21.4%, reflecting efficient use of equity, though the high leverage amplifies returns.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is QSR Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 28.9x, while the forward P/E is 16.7x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp earnings recovery, likely driven by margin expansion and the Burger King turnaround. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (estimated), QSR's trailing P/E of 28.9x represents a 31% premium, but the forward P/E of 16.7x is at a 24% discount, indicating that the market is pricing in above-average growth. The PEG ratio is -1.09, which is negative due to negative earnings growth expectations in the past, but forward estimates suggest a return to growth. Historically, QSR's trailing P/E has ranged from 7.7x (Q3 2022) to 50.2x (Q4 2025), and the current 28.9x is near the middle of that range. The current P/E is below the 5-year average of approximately 20x, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history, especially given the improving fundamental trends.
PE
28.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: QSR's high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 is a significant financial risk, as interest expense of $171 million in Q1 2026 consumes about 28% of operating income. The company's net margin improved to 14.9% in Q1 2026, but this is still below pre-pandemic levels and could be volatile if commodity costs rise. Additionally, the business is heavily reliant on the success of the Burger King turnaround; if same-store sales growth decelerates, the entire thesis weakens. The negative PEG ratio of -1.09 also signals that past earnings growth has been negative, adding uncertainty to the recovery trajectory.
Market & Competitive Risks: QSR's beta of 0.53 makes it less sensitive to market moves, but the stock has still underperformed the S&P 500 by over 10% in the past year, indicating company-specific headwinds. The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with McDonald's and Yum Brands as major rivals; any aggressive pricing or promotional activity could pressure margins. Regulatory risks include minimum wage hikes and franchisee labor costs, which could impact royalty income. The recent news about Yum's Pizza Hut sale setting a valuation benchmark is a positive, but it also highlights that QSR may be undervalued only if the market re-rates the sector.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Burger King turnaround stalls, same-store sales growth turns negative, and margins compress back to 2025 levels, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $61.33, representing a 17.3% decline from the current price of $74.18. In a severe recession, with consumer spending dropping and franchisees struggling, the stock could test the $55 level, a 25.8% loss. The high debt load would amplify the downside, as interest coverage would deteriorate.
