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Royal Gold

RGLD

$221.53

+2.79%

Royal Gold Inc. is a leading precious metals royalty and streaming company focused on gold, providing upfront capital to mining operators in exchange for a percentage of future metal production or the right to purchase a portion of production at a predetermined price. The company's asset-light business model and diversified portfolio of producing, development, and exploration assets across major mining jurisdictions like Canada, Mexico, Chile, and the United States position it as a lower-risk, high-margin participant in the gold industry. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's significant volatility tied to geopolitical tensions and gold price movements, as evidenced by recent news highlighting its sensitivity to potential Middle East ceasefires and stagflation fears, which drive sharp price swings in gold and related equities.…

Should I buy RGLD
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

RGLD

Royal Gold

$221.53

+2.79%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Royal Gold Inc. is a leading precious metals royalty and streaming company focused on gold, providing upfront capital to mining operators in exchange for a percentage of future metal production or the right to purchase a portion of production at a predetermined price. The company's asset-light business model and diversified portfolio of producing, development, and exploration assets across major mining jurisdictions like Canada, Mexico, Chile, and the United States position it as a lower-risk, high-margin participant in the gold industry. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's significant volatility tied to geopolitical tensions and gold price movements, as evidenced by recent news highlighting its sensitivity to potential Middle East ceasefires and stagflation fears, which drive sharp price swings in gold and related equities.
Should I buy RGLD

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RGLD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $221.53
Average Target $221.53
High Target $254.75949999999997
Low Target $188.3005

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Royal Gold's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $287.99 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$287.99

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$177 - $288

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for RGLD is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a specialized stock with less broad institutional following, which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment appears mixed, as evidenced by recent institutional rating actions: Scotiabank downgraded the stock from 'Sector Outperform' to 'Sector Perform' in January 2026, while B of A Securities maintains an 'Underperform' rating, and firms like RBC Capital and Raymond James have 'Outperform' ratings. The average estimated EPS for the next period is $12.19, with a range from $11.12 to $14.21, and the average estimated revenue is $1.88 billion, ranging from $1.76 billion to $2.12 billion; however, specific price targets and a consensus recommendation are not provided in the data, making it impossible to calculate implied upside/downside. The wide range in EPS and revenue estimates, coupled with the divergent analyst ratings (from Underperform to Outperform), signals high uncertainty and low conviction among the covering analysts regarding the company's near-term prospects, likely tied to volatile gold prices and geopolitical factors impacting the sector.

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RGLD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 19.89% over the past three months and 15.27% over the past month, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 12.00% and declined only 0.08% over the same periods, respectively. Despite a positive 1-year return of 15.94%, the current price of $207.57 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, trading just 37% above its 52-week low of $150.75 and 32% below its 52-week high of $306.25, indicating the stock has surrendered most of its past year's gains and is testing key support levels. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 15.27% far exceeding the 3-month drop of 19.89%, suggesting selling pressure has accelerated recently; this short-term weakness starkly contrasts with the positive 1-year trend, signaling a potential breakdown or a deep correction within a longer-term uptrend. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $150.75, while immediate resistance lies near the recent highs around $306.25; a sustained break below the 52-week low would signal a major bearish trend continuation, while a recovery above the $250 level is needed to suggest stabilization. The stock's beta of 0.425 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, which, combined with the recent sharp decline, suggests it may be experiencing a disproportionate, high-conviction sell-off rather than general market weakness.

Beta

0.42

0.42x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$151-$306

Price range past year

Annual Return

+23.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRGLD ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.0%+1.5%
3m-8.7%+13.4%
6m-0.9%+10.9%
1y+23.3%+24.5%
ytd+0.2%+10.0%

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RGLD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust but volatile, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $375.3 million representing an 85.29% year-over-year increase; however, sequential quarterly data shows revenue peaked in Q4 2025 at $375.3M after rising from $191.7M in Q1 2025, indicating strong growth but potential cyclicality or lumpiness in royalty deliveries. The company is highly profitable with a net income of $93.6 million in the latest quarter and an impressive gross margin of 69.27% and operating margin of 64.50%, which are exceptionally high for the materials sector, reflecting the asset-light, high-margin royalty business model; net margin stands at a healthy 45.25%. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 and a robust current ratio of 3.12, indicating ample liquidity; however, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$459.6 million, primarily due to significant acquisition spending of $411.3 million in Q4 2025 for streaming assets, which is a strategic capital deployment typical for the business model rather than operational weakness, as quarterly operating cash flow remains positive at $241.7 million. Return on equity is a modest 6.51%, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of upfront streaming payments, but the strong margins and low leverage provide financial flexibility for future growth investments.

Quarterly Revenue

$375323000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.85%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.64%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-459637000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Royalty Interests
Stream Interests

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Valuation Analysis: Is RGLD Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with a net margin of 45.25%, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 33.10x, while the forward P/E based on estimated EPS is significantly lower at 15.45x, implying the market expects a substantial earnings recovery or growth in the coming year. Compared to the provided industry data, a direct industry average P/E is not available, but the stock's valuation must be contextualized by its unique royalty model, which typically commands a premium to traditional miners due to its superior margins and lower operational risk; the high trailing P/E may reflect depressed recent earnings or one-time items. Historically, the stock's own P/E ratio has fluctuated significantly, ranging from around 20x to over 47x in recent quarters; the current trailing P/E of 33.10x sits above the midpoint of this recent historical range, suggesting the market is still pricing in a relatively optimistic earnings outlook despite the recent price decline, though the lower forward P/E indicates expectations for earnings normalization.

PE

33.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 20x~48x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

20.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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