SSR Mining
SSRM
$36.33
+0.51%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals producer focused on gold and silver mining across the Americas, operating the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina, with gold contributing the majority of revenue and silver providing a meaningful secondary stream. The company occupies a mid-tier position in the gold mining sector, distinguished by its multi-jurisdiction asset base and its recent strategic pivot toward a streamlined Americas-focused portfolio. The dominant investor narrative centers on the completed $1.5 billion sale of the troubled Copler mine in Turkey, which has fundamentally de-risked the business, fortified the balance sheet, and funded a large share buyback program that management framed as a signal of confidence in the stock's undervaluation. This transformation, combined with a strong gold price environment, drove a 45% surge in August 2026 and has shifted the debate from operational risk and past impairments toward capital allocation, growth reinvestment, and whether the re-rating has further room to run.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$36.33
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SSRM Today?
SSR Mining presents a compelling investment case with a synthesized rating of Buy. The core thesis is that the company has fundamentally transformed through the $1.5 billion Copler sale, which de-risked the business, strengthened the balance sheet, and enabled a large share buyback. The analyst consensus of 'strong_buy' with an average target price of $41.40 implies 13.9% upside, and the low target of $39.00 still offers a modest gain. This suggests that even conservative analysts see limited downside from current levels.
The supporting evidence is robust: revenue grew 83.75% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to $581.78 million, with gross margin at 61.27% and operating margin at 52.48%. Free cash flow is strong at $482.31 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, and the balance sheet is pristine with debt-to-equity of 0.118 and $636.17 million in cash. The forward PE of 7.90x is well below the industry average of 10x-15x, and the EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is attractive. The PS ratio of 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its own history and peers.
However, risks exist: the Q1 2026 net loss of $106.45 million, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high, and the inherent volatility of gold prices. The rating would upgrade to a strong buy if the company demonstrates consistent profitability and the forward PE compresses below 7x, or downgrade to a hold if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if gold prices fall sharply. Overall, the stock appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals and growth prospects, making it an attractive buy for investors with a medium to long-term horizon.
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SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
SSR Mining is well-positioned for a re-rating as the market recognizes its transformed business model post-Copler sale. The company's strong free cash flow, low leverage, and discounted valuation provide a margin of safety. However, the recent net loss and gold price dependency introduce uncertainty. I would upgrade to high confidence if the company reports consistent EPS growth above $0.50 per quarter and initiates a dividend. Conversely, a downgrade would occur if gold prices fall below $2,000/oz or if operational issues emerge at Marigold, eroding cash flow and delaying the buyback.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $42.20 and implied upside of +16.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$42.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $48
Analyst target range
SSR Mining is covered by 5 analysts, and the consensus is decisively bullish with a recommendation of "strong_buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.4 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a sell). The average price target is $41.40, which implies approximately 13.9% upside from the current price of $36.33, while the estimated average EPS of $2.22 for the forward period supports the optimistic earnings trajectory embedded in the forward PE of 7.90x. The consensus leans clearly bullish, with no sell ratings evident in the institutional ratings data, and the estimated revenue average of $1.99 billion suggests analysts expect top-line growth to continue. The target range spans from a low of $39.00 to a high of $48.00, a spread of $9.00 or roughly 23% of the average target, which signals moderate rather than extreme uncertainty. The low target of $39.00 — still above the current price — implies that even the most conservative analyst sees upside, likely predicated on the company executing on its de-risked portfolio and maintaining current gold price assumptions. The high target of $48.00 would require either multiple expansion (a re-rating toward peer-group multiples) or a sustained rally in gold prices, and would represent a 32.1% gain from current levels. Institutional ratings show a clear pattern of upgrades and reiterations: RBC Capital upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform on June 3, 2026, CIBC upgraded from Neutral to Outperform on March 12, 2026, and UBS and B of A Securities have maintained Buy ratings throughout 2026. This upgrade cycle, combined with the tight-ish target range and the strong_buy consensus, suggests that analyst conviction is high and that the market may still be in the early stages of recognizing the company's transformed fundamentals.
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Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
The bull case for SSR Mining is currently stronger, supported by the transformative Copler sale, robust revenue growth, and a compelling valuation. The company has de-risked its portfolio, fortified its balance sheet with $636 million in cash, and is generating substantial free cash flow. However, the bear case highlights the recent net loss, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high, and the inherent volatility of gold mining. The most critical tension is whether the market will fully re-rate the stock to reflect its improved fundamentals or continue to apply a discount due to past operational issues and earnings volatility. If the company can demonstrate consistent profitability and execute on its buyback, the bull case could prevail; otherwise, the stock may remain range-bound.
Bullish
- Copler Sale De-Risks and Fortifies Balance Sheet: The $1.5 billion cash sale of the troubled Copler mine in Turkey eliminated the company's largest operational and geopolitical risk. This transformed the balance sheet, boosting cash to $636.17 million in Q1 2026 and reducing debt-to-equity to just 0.118. The proceeds also fund a large share buyback program, signaling management's confidence in the stock's undervaluation.
- Exceptional Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion: Q1 2026 revenue surged 83.75% year-over-year to $581.78 million, driven by strong gold and silver production. Gross margin expanded to 61.27% and operating margin to 52.48%, while EBITDA margin reached 58.68%. This profitability is well above typical mid-tier gold miner levels and reflects the benefit of higher gold prices and operational efficiency.
- Compelling Valuation with Significant Upside: The forward PE of 7.90x is a steep discount to the industry average of 10x-15x, and the EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is also attractive. The average analyst target of $41.40 implies 13.9% upside, with the low target of $39.00 still above the current price. The PEG ratio is negative due to trailing earnings, but the forward earnings growth of ~42% suggests the stock is undervalued.
- Strong Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $482.31 million, with Q1 2026 alone generating $173.23 million. This robust cash generation supports the buyback program and potential future dividends. The current ratio of 2.08 and low leverage provide ample financial flexibility for growth investments.
Bearish
- Net Loss in Q1 2026 Despite Strong EBITDA: SSR reported a net loss of $106.45 million (EPS -$0.51) in Q1 2026, driven by a $59.78 million income tax expense and other non-operating items. This loss, a sharp reversal from Q4 2025's $181.46 million net income, highlights earnings volatility and the impact of tax and accounting factors. The trailing PE of 11.24x is distorted by this loss, and the negative PEG ratio reflects the lack of consistent earnings growth.
- Stock Near 52-Week High with Limited Margin for Error: At $36.33, the stock is at 85.2% of its 52-week range (low $18.19, high $39.44), leaving little room for negative surprises. The 1-month gain has decelerated to just 2.69%, and the max drawdown of -31.28% shows the potential for sharp reversals. A breakdown below $34 could trigger a deeper correction toward $30.
- Operational Concentration and Single-Asset Risk: With the Copler sale, SSR's portfolio is now concentrated in three mines: Marigold (Nevada), Seabee (Canada), and Puna (Argentina). Any operational disruption at Marigold, which contributes the majority of gold production, could significantly impact cash flow. The company's mid-tier scale and limited diversification increase vulnerability to mine-specific issues.
- Gold Price Dependency and Macro Sensitivity: Revenue is heavily tied to gold prices, which are influenced by global economic conditions, interest rates, and currency fluctuations. A decline in gold prices would directly pressure margins and cash flow. The beta of 0.982 suggests the stock moves with the market, but gold-specific factors can cause independent volatility.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSR Mining is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the stock up 66.65% over the past year and 68.82% year-to-date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 15.01% and 11.70% respective gains. At a current price of $36.33, the stock sits at approximately 85.2% of its 52-week range (low of $18.19, high of $39.44), positioning it in the upper quartile of its annual band — a zone that typically signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of profit-taking and overextension. The relative strength of +51.64 percentage points versus SPY over one year confirms this is a market-leading name, though the proximity to the 52-week high of $39.44 means the margin for error on any negative catalyst is thin. Recent momentum remains positive but has decelerated sharply from its summer surge: the 1-month change is just +2.69% and the 3-month change is +17.38%, a marked slowdown from the 6-month gain of +58.03%. This deceleration suggests the August breakout — which saw the stock rocket from roughly $26 in early August to $39.21 by August 25 — is now consolidating, with the stock pulling back from its $39.44 peak to the mid-$36s. Notably, the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is +3.65 percentage points, meaning SSR is still outperforming a slightly negative market (SPY -0.96% over 1 month), which is a constructive sign that the consolidation is orderly rather than a reversal. Key technical support lies at the 52-week low of $18.19, though a more relevant near-term support zone would be the $34-$35 area where the stock has recently found buyers; resistance is firmly established at the 52-week high of $39.44. A breakout above $39.44 on strong volume would signal a continuation of the primary uptrend and likely open the door to the $42-$45 zone, while a breakdown below $34 would suggest a deeper mean-reversion toward the $30 level. With a beta of 0.982, the stock's volatility is roughly in line with the broader market, which is relatively low for a gold miner and implies that the dramatic price moves are driven more by company-specific catalysts (the Copler sale, buyback) than by market beta; the max drawdown of -31.28% over the period nonetheless underscores that this is not a low-risk instrument.
Beta
0.98
0.98x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$18-$39
Price range past year
Annual Return
+66.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.7% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +17.4% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +58.0% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +66.7% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +68.8% | +11.7% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
SSR Mining's revenue trajectory has been exceptionally strong, with Q1 2026 revenue of $581.78 million representing 83.75% year-over-year growth from Q1 2025's $316.62 million. This acceleration is part of a clear multi-quarter uptrend: revenue climbed from $316.62 million in Q1 2025 to $405.46 million in Q2 2025, $385.84 million in Q3 2025, $521.73 million in Q4 2025, and $581.78 million in Q1 2026, with the Q3 2025 dip reflecting operational variability. Segment data shows gold is the dominant driver at $400.13 million, followed by silver at $159.49 million, with lead, zinc, and other metals contributing a combined ~$22 million — confirming the company's identity as a gold-first producer with a valuable silver kicker. The growth trend implies that the investment case is no longer about survival or turnaround but about scaling a de-risked, cash-generative portfolio in a favorable gold price environment. Profitability is robust at the operating level, with Q1 2026 gross margin of 61.27% and operating margin of 52.48%, though the company reported a net loss of $106.45 million (EPS of -$0.51) in that quarter due to a $59.78 million income tax expense and other non-operating items. This loss is a sharp reversal from Q4 2025's net income of $181.46 million (EPS $0.90) and Q3 2025's $65.44 million, but the trailing net margin remains a healthy 24.28% and the gross margin of 35.73% on a TTM basis reflects the strong underlying economics. The Q1 2026 loss appears driven by tax and accounting items rather than operational deterioration, as EBITDA was a robust $341.41 million with a 58.68% EBITDA margin — a level that would be the envy of most gold miners. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong: debt-to-equity is just 0.118, the current ratio is 2.08, and the company holds $636.17 million in cash as of Q1 2026, up from $533.86 million at year-end 2025. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis is $482.31 million, and Q1 2026 alone generated $173.23 million in FCF on operating cash flow of $260.83 million against capital expenditure of $87.60 million. With ROE of 11.50% and ROA of 9.22%, the company is generating solid returns on its asset base, and the low leverage combined with the massive cash war chest from the Copler sale means SSR is self-funding its growth and has ample capacity for the buyback program and potential dividends.
Quarterly Revenue
$581778000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+83.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482307514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Because SSR Mining reported positive trailing net income (TTM EPS of $0.09 and trailing PE of 11.24x), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric, though the forward PE of 7.90x is the more informative figure given the company's earnings trajectory. The gap between the trailing PE of 11.24x and the forward PE of 7.90x implies the market expects earnings to grow substantially — roughly 42% — over the next twelve months, consistent with analyst EPS estimates of $2.22 versus the current trailing figure. This compression from trailing to forward multiple is a classic signal of a company transitioning from a low-earnings base to a higher-earnings regime, and it suggests the stock is cheaper than it appears on a backward-looking basis. Relative to the broader gold mining sector, SSR's forward PE of 7.90x screens as a discount to the industry average, which typically ranges in the 10x-15x range for mid-tier producers; the PS ratio of 2.68x and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x also suggest the stock is not expensive on cash-flow-based measures. The PB ratio of 1.27x is modest for a company with 11.50% ROE and a debt-to-equity of just 0.118, implying the market is not fully capitalizing the quality of the balance sheet. The discount appears partially justified by the company's history of operational setbacks (the Copler incident) and its mid-tier scale, but the de-risking from the asset sale and the strong FCF generation argue that the discount should narrow. Historically, SSR's valuation has been volatile: the PE ratio was 6.09x at year-end 2025, 19.08x in Q3 2025, and negative in Q1 2026 due to the quarterly loss, while the PS ratio ranged from 4.35x (Q4 2024) to 13.51x (Q3 2025). The current PS of 2.68x is near the low end of its multi-year range, and the PB of 1.27x is well below the 1.66x seen in Q1 2026 and the 1.57x in Q3 2025, suggesting the stock is trading near the bottom of its own historical valuation band. This combination — low absolute multiples, a discount to peers, and a position near historical lows on PS and PB — paints a picture of a stock that the market has not yet fully re-rated despite the fundamental transformation, which is the core of the bull case.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks for SSR Mining are moderate but notable. The company reported a net loss of $106.45 million in Q1 2026 despite strong EBITDA of $341.41 million, highlighting earnings volatility driven by tax and non-operating items. While debt-to-equity is low at 0.118 and cash stands at $636.17 million, the concentration of production in three mines—Marigold, Seabee, and Puna—creates single-asset risk; any disruption at Marigold, which contributes the majority of gold output, could severely impact cash flow. Additionally, the company's revenue is highly sensitive to gold prices, and a decline could compress margins, which are currently robust at 61.27% gross margin.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if the stock fails to meet growth expectations. The forward PE of 7.90x is a discount to peers, but the trailing PE of 11.24x is distorted by the recent loss, and the negative PEG ratio reflects inconsistent earnings. The stock's beta of 0.982 indicates it moves with the broader market, but gold miners often face sector-specific volatility. Recent news highlights the August 2026 surge of 45%, which may have been driven by gold price strength and the Copler sale; however, if gold prices retreat or if the buyback fails to support the stock, sentiment could reverse. Regulatory and geopolitical risks in Argentina (Puna mine) and Canada (Seabee) also pose threats, though these are mitigated by the Americas focus.
The worst-case scenario would involve a sharp decline in gold prices, operational setbacks at Marigold, and a failure to execute on growth initiatives. This could drive the stock down to its 52-week low of $18.19, representing a 50% loss from the current price of $36.33. The analyst low target of $39.00 is above the current price, but in a severe downturn, the stock could test the $18-$20 range, especially if the company reports another quarterly loss or if the buyback is paused. The max drawdown of -31.28% over the past period underscores the potential for significant losses in adverse conditions.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Gold price risk – revenue is highly sensitive to gold prices, and a decline below $2,000/oz could compress margins and cash flow. 2) Operational risk – concentration in three mines, particularly Marigold, means any disruption could significantly impact production and earnings. 3) Earnings volatility – the company reported a net loss of $106.45 million in Q1 2026 despite strong EBITDA, highlighting the impact of tax and non-operating items. 4) Valuation risk – the stock is near its 52-week high, and a failure to meet growth expectations could lead to multiple compression. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity, with gold price and operational risks being the most critical.
The 12-month forecast for SSRM includes three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) with a target range of $39-$43, assuming gold prices stabilize and the company executes its buyback; a bull case (30% probability) targeting $45-$48, driven by higher gold prices and a dividend initiation; and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $30-$35, if gold prices decline and operational issues arise. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that gold prices average $2,300-$2,400/oz and Q2 2026 EPS meets consensus of ~$0.55. The analyst average target of $41.40 aligns with the base case, suggesting moderate upside from current levels.
SSRM appears undervalued based on multiple metrics. The forward PE of 7.90x is a significant discount to the industry average of 10x-15x, and the EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is also attractive. The PS ratio of 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range (which has ranged from 4.35x to 13.51x), and the PB ratio of 1.27x is below its recent levels of 1.66x and 1.57x. The market is pricing in expectations of earnings growth, as evidenced by the gap between trailing PE (11.24x) and forward PE (7.90x), but the current multiples suggest the stock is cheap relative to its cash flow and asset base. If the company meets earnings estimates, the stock could re-rate higher.
SSRM appears to be a good buy for investors with a medium to long-term horizon, given its strong fundamentals and discounted valuation. The stock trades at a forward PE of 7.90x, well below the industry average, and has an analyst consensus target of $41.40, implying 13.9% upside. The company's $1.5 billion Copler sale has de-risked the business and fortified the balance sheet with $636 million in cash. However, the recent Q1 2026 net loss of $106.45 million and the stock's proximity to its 52-week high introduce near-term risks. A pullback to the $34-$35 support zone could offer a better entry point. Overall, it is a buy for those comfortable with gold price volatility and seeking value in the mining sector.
SSRM is more suitable for a medium to long-term investment horizon (at least 1-2 years) rather than short-term trading. The company is in a growth phase, having recently de-risked its portfolio and strengthened its balance sheet, but it does not pay a dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation. The beta of 0.982 indicates market-like volatility, but the stock has experienced a max drawdown of -31.28%, suggesting significant price swings. Earnings visibility is improving but still subject to gold price fluctuations. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months would allow time for the buyback to impact EPS and for potential re-rating. Short-term traders might capitalize on momentum, but the risk of volatility is high.
