ExxonMobil
XOM
$147.36
+0.97%
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels per day and a significant chemicals business. As one of the world's largest publicly traded energy companies, it holds a dominant position across the upstream, downstream, and chemical value chains, underpinned by a 43-year dividend growth streak. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's resilience amid volatile oil prices, with recent geopolitical developments (U.S.-Iran talks) driving short-term price swings, while long-term attention focuses on its ability to sustain shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation and cost control.…
XOM
ExxonMobil
$147.36
Related headlines
XOM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ExxonMobil's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $167.38 and implied upside of +13.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$167.38
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+13.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$130 - $185
Analyst target range
ExxonMobil is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 2.29 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $167.38, implying 15.8% upside from the current price of $144.51. The distribution shows 10 recent ratings: 7 Buy/Overweight, 2 Neutral, and 1 Sector Perform, indicating a bullish consensus. The target range spans from a low of $130.00 to a high of $185.00. The high target of $185 assumes a return to peak earnings and multiple expansion, while the low target of $130 reflects downside risks from sustained low oil prices or margin compression. The spread of $55 (30% of the average target) indicates moderate uncertainty. Recent rating actions include upgrades from B of A Securities (Neutral to Buy) and maintained Overweight from Morgan Stanley, suggesting improving sentiment.
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Bulls vs Bears: XOM Investment Factors
ExxonMobil presents a mixed investment case. On the bull side, the stock offers a compelling forward valuation (13.58x P/E vs industry 20x), strong shareholder returns (3.3% yield, 43-year dividend growth), and a solid balance sheet (D/E 0.168). Analyst consensus is Buy with 15.8% upside. However, bears point to declining earnings (net income down 46% YoY), margin compression (operating margin 6.4% vs 12.1% last year), and a trailing P/E above its 5-year average. The single most important tension is whether earnings will recover from the Q1 2026 trough; if they do, the forward P/E discount justifies the stock, but if margins remain pressured, the stock could de-rate. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the valuation discount and analyst support, but the bear risks are material.
Bullish
- Attractive Forward Valuation: XOM's forward P/E of 13.58x is at a 32% discount to the industry average of 20x, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to peers. This discount provides a margin of safety and potential for multiple expansion if earnings stabilize.
- Strong Shareholder Returns: XOM returned $4.87 billion in buybacks and $4.33 billion in dividends in Q1 2026, with a 43-year dividend growth streak and a current yield of 3.3%. This commitment to returning capital supports the stock price and attracts income-focused investors.
- Solid Balance Sheet: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.168 and free cash flow of $2.24 billion in Q1 2026, XOM maintains a strong financial position. Operating cash flow of $8.71 billion easily covered capex of $6.47 billion, providing flexibility for investments and shareholder returns.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: 21 analysts rate XOM a Buy with an average target of $167.38, implying 15.8% upside from the current price of $144.51. Recent upgrades from BofA and maintained Overweight from Morgan Stanley indicate improving sentiment.
Bearish
- Earnings Decline and Margin Compression: Q1 2026 net income fell to $4.18 billion from $7.71 billion in Q1 2025, a 46% decline. Operating margin compressed to 6.4% from 12.1% a year ago, reflecting weaker downstream performance and higher costs, which could pressure the stock if sustained.
- High Trailing P/E vs History: The trailing P/E of 18.07x is above the 5-year average of 12x, indicating the stock is not cheap on an earnings basis. This premium could contract if earnings fail to recover, leading to downside risk.
- Oil Price Sensitivity: XOM's earnings are highly correlated with oil prices. Recent U.S.-Iran talks caused oil to sink 5% in a single day, and a sustained drop in crude could significantly reduce upstream profits and cash flows, impacting the dividend and buyback program.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: Q1 2026 revenue of $83.16 billion grew only 2.59% YoY, and is below the $87.79 billion reported in Q3 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows deceleration from a peak of $89.99 billion in Q2 2024, driven by lower oil prices and refining margins.
XOM Technical Analysis
ExxonMobil is in a broad uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +27.99%, though it has pulled back significantly from its 52-week high of $176.41. The current price of $144.51 sits at 57.5% of the 52-week range (($144.51 - $105.53) / ($176.41 - $105.53) = 0.575), indicating it is closer to the midpoint than the extremes. This positioning suggests the stock is neither overextended nor at a deep value level, reflecting a consolidation phase after a strong run. The beta of 0.162 implies the stock is far less volatile than the market, which is unusually low for an energy major and may indicate data issues or a period of relative stability.
Beta
0.16
0.16x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$106-$176
Price range past year
Annual Return
+32.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | XOM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.7% | +0.3% |
| 3m | +0.6% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +13.4% | +7.5% |
| 1y | +32.0% | +18.4% |
| ytd | +20.1% | +9.0% |
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XOM Fundamental Analysis
ExxonMobil's revenue trajectory shows modest growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $83.16 billion up 2.59% year-over-year, but below the $87.79 billion reported in Q3 2024. The multi-quarter trend reveals deceleration from a peak of $89.99 billion in Q2 2024, driven by lower oil prices and refining margins. Segment data for Q1 2026 shows Energy Products contributed $44.80 billion (54% of total), Upstream $15.04 billion (18%), and Chemical Products $4.58 billion (6%), with the Energy Products segment being the primary growth driver. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $4.18 billion and a gross margin of 37.7%, though this is down from 22.4% in Q3 2025 due to higher costs. Operating margin compressed to 6.4% in Q1 2026 from 11.0% in Q3 2025, reflecting weaker downstream performance, but net margin of 5.0% remains positive. The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.168 and free cash flow of $2.24 billion in Q1 2026, though this is down from $5.23 billion in Q4 2025. The company generated $8.71 billion in operating cash flow, easily covering capital expenditures of $6.47 billion, and returned $4.87 billion to shareholders via buybacks and $4.33 billion in dividends. ROE of 11.1% indicates solid profitability, and the current ratio of 1.15 suggests adequate liquidity.
Quarterly Revenue
$83.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$18.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is XOM Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 18.07x, while the forward P/E is 13.58x, implying the market expects earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests analysts anticipate a recovery in earnings from the depressed Q1 2026 level. Compared to the industry average (Oil & Gas Integrated), the stock trades at a discount: the trailing P/E of 18.07x is below the sector median of approximately 20x, while the forward P/E of 13.58x is at a 32% discount to the industry forward average of 20x. This discount may reflect the market's skepticism about sustained earnings power given oil price volatility. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 18.07x is above the 5-year average of around 12x, indicating the stock is not cheap relative to its own history. The P/E peaked at 42.4x in Q1 2026 (due to depressed earnings) and bottomed at 4.6x in Q3 2022 (during peak earnings), so the current level is in the middle of the historical range, suggesting moderate valuation.
PE
18.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: XOM's earnings are highly cyclical, with Q1 2026 net income falling 46% YoY to $4.18 billion. Operating margin compressed to 6.4% from 12.1% a year ago, driven by weaker downstream performance and higher costs. The company's free cash flow of $2.24 billion in Q1 2026 is down from $5.23 billion in Q4 2025, though still positive. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.168 is low, but the reliance on oil prices for cash flows means a sustained downturn could pressure the dividend and buyback program. Revenue concentration in Energy Products (54% of total) exposes the company to refining margin volatility.
Market & Competitive Risks: XOM trades at a trailing P/E of 18.07x, above its 5-year average of 12x, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if earnings disappoint. The stock's beta of 0.162 is unusually low, but it is still sensitive to oil price swings; a 20% drop in crude could significantly impact earnings. Competitive risks include the energy transition and regulatory pressures on fossil fuels. Recent news highlights geopolitical volatility: U.S.-Iran talks caused oil to sink 5% in June 2026, while a collapse in talks led to spikes. Sector rotation away from energy could also weigh on the stock.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sustained drop in oil prices below $50/barrel, combined with a global recession, could drive XOM's earnings to near zero and force dividend cuts. In this scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $105.53, representing a 27% decline from the current price of $144.51. The analyst low target of $130 implies a 10% downside, but a severe downturn could exceed that, with historical max drawdown of -20.65% already seen in the past year.
