American International Group
AIG
$75.21
+0.44%
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global leader in the insurance and financial services industry, operating primarily through its General Insurance segment to provide property, casualty, and related coverage worldwide. The company is a formidable, diversified insurer with a significant international footprint, recently having spun off its life insurance operations (Corebridge) to focus on its core property & casualty business while retaining a minority stake. The current investor narrative centers on the company's post-spinoff transformation into a simpler, more focused entity, with debates focused on its ability to drive profitable underwriting, improve expense efficiency, and navigate a competitive commercial insurance market amidst a backdrop of volatile catastrophe losses and fluctuating interest rates.…
AIG
American International Group
$75.21
AIG 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on American International Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $97.77 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$97.77
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$60 - $98
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for AIG is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is sparse for a company of its size and suggests it may be under-followed by the broader institutional research community. The available data shows a consensus leaning positive, with recent institutional ratings including 'Buy' from UBS, 'Overweight' from Piper Sandler, and 'Outperform' from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, balanced by 'Neutral' or 'Equal Weight' ratings from Mizuho, Cantor Fitzgerald, Wells Fargo, and Barclays. The average revenue estimate for the next period is approximately $33.5 billion, with a tight EPS estimate range between $9.35 and $9.84. The limited number of analysts and the lack of a published consensus price target in the data imply higher uncertainty and potentially less efficient price discovery, which can contribute to the stock's observed volatility and disconnect from broader market moves.
AIG Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -11.72% and a 6-month decline of -10.79%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 22.86% gain over the same period. Currently trading at $75.74, the price sits just 5.2% above its 52-week low of $71.25 and 13.2% below its 52-week high of $87.29, positioning it in the lower quartile of its annual range and suggesting a potential value opportunity, albeit with a clear lack of positive momentum. Recent momentum has been negative and weak, with the stock down 5.28% over the past month and down 1.30% over the past three months, indicating the downtrend has persisted in the near term without signs of a meaningful reversal. The stock's low beta of 0.541 indicates it is approximately 46% less volatile than the broader market, which has provided some relative downside cushion but also suggests muted sensitivity to broad market rallies. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $71.25, while immediate resistance lies near the recent trading range highs around $81-$82; a sustained break below support could signal a new leg down, whereas a decisive move above $82 is needed to suggest a trend reversal.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$71-$87
Price range past year
Annual Return
-12.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AIG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.2% | +1.5% |
| 3m | +1.2% | +13.4% |
| 6m | -12.7% | +10.9% |
| 1y | -12.0% | +24.5% |
| ytd | -10.8% | +10.0% |
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AIG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trends have been mixed, with the most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $6.56 billion representing an 8.6% year-over-year decline, continuing a pattern of volatility seen over recent quarters (Q3 2025: $6.40B, Q2 2025: $7.04B). The General Insurance segment, contributing $6.72 billion, is the sole significant revenue driver post-spinoff. Profitability remains positive but inconsistent; Q4 2025 net income was $735 million with a net margin of 11.2%, a significant improvement from the $898 million loss in Q2 2024, though gross margin compressed to 33.9% from 34.5% a year earlier. The company is generating substantial free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $3.31 billion, supporting shareholder returns. The balance sheet appears healthy with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22, indicating low financial leverage, and a current ratio of 0.85 suggests adequate, though not excessive, short-term liquidity. Return on equity of 7.53% and return on assets of 1.89% reflect modest but improving capital efficiency following the corporate simplification.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.08%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.33%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AIG Overvalued?
Given its positive net income, the trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is the primary valuation metric, which stands at 15.6x. This compares favorably to a forward P/E of 8.5x, a substantial discount that implies the market expects a significant near-term earnings increase, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $9.60 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, AIG trades at a discount on a Price-to-Sales basis (P/S of 1.81x) and an EV/Sales of 1.48x, typical for a mature, capital-intensive insurer. The stock's Price-to-Book ratio of 1.18x suggests the market values it close to its accounting net asset value. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 15.6x is near the middle of its recent range, having been as high as 21.7x in Q3 2025 and as low as 10.9x in Q2 2025, indicating the current valuation is not stretched relative to its own history. The low PEG ratio of 0.25, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its growth profile, though this may reflect skepticism about the sustainability of that growth.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -3x~310x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
