APi Group Corporation
APG
$41.63
+0.39%
APi Group Corporation is a global provider of safety and specialty services, operating through two segments: Safety Services, which offers end-to-end integrated occupancy systems including fire protection, HVAC, and entry systems, and Specialty Services, which provides infrastructure maintenance and repair for underground utilities. The company holds a strong market position as a diversified industrial services provider with a focus on recurring revenue from inspection and maintenance contracts, distinguishing it through its scale and breadth of offerings across commercial, healthcare, and industrial end markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain revenue growth amid mixed macroeconomic signals, with attention on margin expansion from operational efficiencies and the impact of recent acquisitions. Debate persists around the sustainability of free cash flow generation and the trajectory of net income improvement following a period of restructuring and debt management.…
APG
APi Group Corporation
$41.63
APG 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on APi Group Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $54.12 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$54.12
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$33 - $54
Analyst target range
APG has coverage from 4 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. All four analysts rate the stock as Buy or Overweight, with no Hold or Sell ratings. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.05, with a range of $2.02 to $2.10. The average revenue estimate is $9.70 billion, implying a forward P/E of 20.5x based on current price. The implied upside to the average target is not directly provided, but based on the forward P/E and EPS, the implied target price would be approximately $44.50 (20.5x * $2.05), representing about 6% upside from the current price of $41.98. The consensus is clearly bullish, with all analysts maintaining positive ratings. The high EPS estimate of $2.10 implies a target of $45.50, while the low estimate of $2.02 implies $43.80. The narrow range of EPS estimates (2.02 to 2.10) suggests strong conviction among analysts. Recent ratings actions show no changes, with all firms reiterating their positive stances in February 2026. The lack of downgrades and consistent Buy ratings indicate confidence in APG's growth trajectory and margin expansion story.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
APG Technical Analysis
APG is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +25.05%. The current price of $41.98 sits at approximately 84% of its 52-week range ($33.40 low to $49.99 high), indicating the stock is trading closer to the upper end but below the peak. This positioning suggests positive momentum but not overextension, leaving room for further upside if catalysts emerge. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year (relative strength of +5.95%), reflecting strong relative strength. Short-term momentum shows a divergence: the 1-month price change is +0.50%, while the 3-month change is -0.12%, indicating a deceleration from the longer-term trend. The 1-month relative strength versus SPY is +1.75, suggesting recent outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength is -13.68, signaling a loss of momentum relative to the market over the intermediate term. This divergence could indicate a consolidation phase or a potential trend reversal if the short-term weakness persists. The 52-week high of $49.99 acts as key resistance, while the 52-week low of $33.40 provides support. A breakout above $49.99 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs, while a breakdown below $33.40 would indicate a bearish reversal. The stock's beta of 1.6 implies it is 60% more volatile than the market, meaning larger price swings and higher risk, which is important for position sizing and risk management.
Beta
1.60
1.60x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$33-$50
Price range past year
Annual Return
+20.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -4.7% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -6.3% | +10.6% |
| 6m | -0.6% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +20.7% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +6.8% | +10.2% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
APG Fundamental Analysis
APG's revenue trajectory is growing, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) at $2.117 billion, representing a YoY growth rate of 13.76% from $1.861 billion in Q4 2024. However, the multi-quarter trend shows deceleration: Q3 2025 revenue was $2.085 billion (12.0% YoY), Q2 2025 was $1.990 billion (15.0% YoY), and Q1 2025 was $1.719 billion (7.4% YoY). The Safety Services segment (Life Safety) generated $1.424 billion in the latest period, while Specialty Contracting contributed $333 million, indicating Safety Services is the primary growth driver. The deceleration in YoY growth from 15% to 13.8% suggests potential headwinds, but the absolute revenue level remains robust, supporting the investment case for steady expansion. The company is profitable, with net income of $97 million in Q4 2025, up from $67 million in Q4 2024. Gross margin improved to 32.03% from 30.90% a year ago, indicating expanding profitability. Operating margin rose to 7.75% from 6.23%, and net margin increased to 4.58% from 3.60%. The trend over recent quarters shows consistent margin expansion: gross margin has risen from 30.73% in Q4 2024 to 32.03% in Q4 2025, reflecting better cost control and mix. This margin improvement is positive for the investment case, signaling operational leverage. APG has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 1.50, suggesting adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $663 million, with a free cash flow yield of approximately 4.2% based on market cap. The company generated $382 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, up from $283 million in Q4 2024, showing strong cash generation. ROE is 8.86%, which is reasonable but not exceptional. The balance sheet appears healthy, with cash of $913 million at end of Q4 2025, and the company does not pay dividends, instead reinvesting in growth and debt reduction.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.76%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
32.03%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$663000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is APG Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($97 million in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is -55.45 (due to negative diluted EPS from one-time items), but the forward P/E is 21.62, which is more relevant. The gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects expected earnings normalization and growth, implying the market anticipates a significant rebound in profitability. The PEG ratio is -2.39, which is not meaningful due to negative earnings growth expectations in the near term. Compared to the Engineering & Construction industry, APG's forward P/E of 21.62x is at a premium to the industry average of approximately 15x (based on sector data), representing a 44% premium. This premium may be justified by APG's higher revenue growth (13.8% YoY) and expanding margins, but it also implies higher expectations. The P/S ratio of 2.01x is below the industry average of 1.5x, suggesting the premium is concentrated in earnings multiples. Historically, APG's trailing P/E has ranged from 28x to 97x over the past five years, with the current forward P/E of 21.62x near the lower end of its historical range. This suggests the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history, but the low trailing P/E is distorted by one-time charges. The P/B ratio of 4.67x is above the historical average of 2.5x, indicating the market is pricing in higher returns on equity.
PE
-55.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -174x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
