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Antero Resources

AR

$34.49

-0.49%

Antero Resources is an exploration and production company focused on natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia. It is a pure-play Appalachian operator and a leading NGL producer, distinct for its low-cost asset base and integrated midstream support. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic shift to concentrate on the Marcellus, its improving profitability amid volatile commodity prices, and the potential for free cash flow generation to drive shareholder returns.…

Bobby Quantitative Model
Jul 9, 2026

AR

Antero Resources

$34.49

-0.49%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Antero Resources is an exploration and production company focused on natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia. It is a pure-play Appalachian operator and a leading NGL producer, distinct for its low-cost asset base and integrated midstream support. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic shift to concentrate on the Marcellus, its improving profitability amid volatile commodity prices, and the potential for free cash flow generation to drive shareholder returns.

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AR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $34.49
Average Target $34.49
High Target $39.66
Low Target $29.32

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Antero Resources's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $44.84 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$44.84

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$28 - $45

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Only 3 analysts cover Antero Resources, which is limited for a mid-cap E&P. The consensus recommendation is Buy, with an average estimated EPS of $5.52 for the next fiscal year. The average revenue estimate is $7.507 billion, implying a forward P/S of about 1.4x. The implied upside from the current price of $35.38 to the average EPS target (using forward P/E of 7.7x) is roughly 20%, suggesting a target price around $42.50.

The estimated EPS range is $4.96 to $6.05, and revenue estimates range from $6.92 billion to $8.06 billion, indicating moderate uncertainty. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from Truist (Buy from Hold) and Benchmark (Buy from Hold), while Barclays and UBS have maintained their ratings. The limited coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, offering opportunities for active investors. The wide EPS range reflects sensitivity to commodity prices, but the overall sentiment is positive, with most analysts seeing value at current levels.

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Drowning in data?

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AR Technical Analysis

The stock is in a recovery phase from a downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -4.89%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +19.1% gain. The current price of $35.38 sits at 46.5% of its 52-week range ($29.10 low to $45.75 high), indicating it is closer to the low end, which could suggest a value opportunity but also reflects lingering bearish sentiment. The 52-week low of $29.10 was set in early 2026, and the stock has since bounced, but it remains well below the high of $45.75 from March 2026.

Short-term momentum is negative: the 1-month price change is -2.43% and the 3-month change is -12.53%, both contrasting with the 6-month gain of +3.42%. This divergence suggests the stock is experiencing a pullback after a stronger recovery earlier in the year. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is deeply negative over 1-month (-1.18%), 3-month (-26.09%), and 1-year (-23.99%), confirming persistent underperformance. The beta of 0.33 indicates the stock is significantly less volatile than the market, which may limit downside but also upside participation.

Key support is at the 52-week low of $29.10, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $45.75. A break above $45.75 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs, while a breakdown below $29.10 would likely lead to further declines. The low beta of 0.33 suggests the stock is less sensitive to market moves, which can be attractive for risk-averse investors but also means it may lag during broad market rallies.

Beta

0.33

0.33x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-31.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$29-$46

Price range past year

Annual Return

-3.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAR ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.5%+2.0%
3m-9.0%+10.6%
6m+9.9%+8.3%
1y-3.0%+20.4%
ytd+0.8%+10.2%

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AR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has been growing strongly, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $1.432 billion, up 24.6% year-over-year from $1.149 billion in Q4 2024. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior year's growth trajectory, driven by higher natural gas and NGL prices and increased production. Revenue segments show natural gas production contributed $773.6 million, NGL sales $474.3 million, and oil/condensate $34.8 million, with marketing adding $31.7 million. The growth is broad-based, but NGLs are a key driver given Antero's leading position.

The company is profitable, with net income of $193.7 million in Q4 2025, compared to $107.0 million in Q4 2024, a 81% increase. Gross margin improved to 26.1% from 11.2% a year ago, reflecting better cost control and higher prices. Operating margin expanded to 22.2% from 0.3%, and net margin rose to 13.5% from 9.3%. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.37 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation. ROE stands at 8.4%, and ROA at 5.9%, indicating efficient use of capital.

The balance sheet is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, down from 0.96 in 2021, and interest coverage of 14.4x, well above the 2x threshold for safety. Free cash flow of $318 million in Q4 2025 easily covers capital expenditures of $52.7 million, leaving ample room for debt reduction or shareholder returns. The current ratio of 0.55 is low, but this is typical for E&P companies due to high working capital efficiency. Overall, the company is financially healthy and self-funding.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+24.62%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

26.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Marketings
Natural Gas Liquids Sales
Natural Gas, Production
Oil and Condensate

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Valuation Analysis: Is AR Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 16.8x, while the forward P/E is 7.7x, a significant discount that implies the market expects earnings to grow sharply in the coming year. This gap suggests optimism about future profitability, likely driven by higher commodity prices and cost efficiencies.

Compared to the industry average (Oil & Gas E&P), Antero's trailing P/E of 16.8x is above the sector median of roughly 10x, representing a 68% premium. However, the forward P/E of 7.7x is in line with the industry forward average of ~8x, indicating that the premium is justified by expected earnings growth. The EV/EBITDA of 9.0x is also reasonable for the sector, which typically trades between 5x-10x.

Historically, Antero's trailing P/E has ranged from 1.5x (end of 2021) to over 100x (mid-2024 when earnings were low). The current 16.8x is near the middle of its 5-year range, suggesting it is not excessively overvalued. The P/B ratio of 1.41x is below the 5-year average of ~1.3x, indicating the stock is trading near book value. Overall, valuation appears fair, with forward metrics pointing to upside if earnings materialize.

PE

16.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -109x~107x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

9.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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Bullish
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