Chord Energy Corporation
CHRD
$144.49
-1.22%
Chord Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused primarily on the Williston Basin, where it holds a large-scale position in the Bakken and Three Forks formations, complemented by limited non-operated interests in the Marcellus Shale. The company operates as a pure-play Williston operator with a concentrated, low-cost asset base, distinguishing itself from diversified E&Ps through scale in a single basin and a shareholder-return model built on dividends and buybacks. The current investor narrative centers on portfolio simplification following the announced $550 million Marcellus divestiture, which sharpens the company's Williston focus and strengthens the balance sheet, though softer natural gas realizations and elevated cost pressures have kept sentiment cautious. At the same time, the stock has been one of the sector's strongest performers year-to-date, supported by resilient oil prices and capital discipline, even as analysts debate whether the recent rally has run ahead of near-term free cash flow generation.…
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$144.49
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy CHRD Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Buy, with a thesis that Chord Energy offers deep value on cash flow (EV/EBITDA of 3.72x) and a compelling 19.1% upside to the analyst average target of $172.13, supported by a 'strong buy' consensus from 16 analysts. The core reasoning is that the market is overly discounting the company's earnings recovery potential, as evidenced by the forward PE of 9.30x versus the sector's 10-14x range, despite a conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of 0.186 and a 5.93% dividend yield.
Supporting evidence includes the 37.08% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026, the sequential gross margin improvement from 10.37% to 22.24%, and TTM free cash flow of $500.9 million. The price-to-book ratio of 0.66x is near the low end of its historical range (0.65x to 2.37x since 2021), and the EV/EBITDA of 3.72x is roughly half the sector average. The forward PE of 9.30x implies the market expects a dramatic earnings rebound, which is supported by analyst EPS estimates of $14.68, and the 5.93% dividend yield provides a substantial income component.
The biggest risks that could invalidate this thesis are a sustained oil price decline below $65, a dividend cut due to the 714.7% payout ratio, and further impairment charges given the single-basin concentration. The rating would upgrade to a stronger Buy if the stock breaks above $157.06 resistance with sustained volume, or downgrade to Hold if Q2 2026 gross margin fails to hold above 20% or if oil prices fall below $70. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears undervalued, trading at a 20-35% discount on forward earnings and a 50% discount on EV/EBITDA, though this discount reflects legitimate concerns about commodity price dependency and portfolio concentration.
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CHRD 12-Month Price Forecast
Chord Energy presents a compelling value opportunity with a clear catalyst path, trading at a significant discount to peers on both EV/EBITDA and forward PE despite a strong balance sheet and robust free cash flow. The 37.08% revenue growth and margin recovery in Q1 2026 suggest the earnings trough is past, and the 'strong buy' consensus with 19.1% upside reinforces the bullish case. However, the 714.7% payout ratio and single-basin concentration introduce meaningful risk, and the stock's 52.61% YTD gain may have already priced in some recovery. I would upgrade to high confidence if oil prices stabilize above $75 and Q2 2026 gross margin exceeds 25%, or downgrade to neutral if oil falls below $70 or the dividend is cut.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Chord Energy Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $173.19 and implied upside of +19.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$173.19
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+19.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$145 - $217
Analyst target range
Chord Energy is covered by 16 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "strong buy" (recommendation mean of 1.47 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy), reflecting broad-based bullish sentiment across the sell-side. The average price target of $172.13 implies approximately 19.1% upside from the current price of $144.49, and the consensus leans decidedly bullish with no sell ratings evident in the institutional ratings data. Recent actions from major firms have been uniformly constructive, with UBS, Truist Securities, Morgan Stanley, and Mizuho all maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings through mid-2026, while Citigroup and Scotiabank remain Neutral/Sector Perform as the primary cautious voices.
The target range spans from a low of $133.00 to a high of $217.00, a spread of $84.00 or roughly 63% of the current price, which signals meaningful disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $217 likely assumes successful integration of the Williston-focused strategy, sustained oil prices above $80, and multiple expansion as the market re-rates the stock toward peer multiples; the low target of $133 implies flat-to-lower commodity prices, margin compression from higher costs, and limited multiple expansion. The wide spread, combined with the stock trading 2.26% below its 1-month-ago price despite the strong consensus, suggests that near-term uncertainty around gas realizations and cost inflation is tempering analyst conviction even as the longer-term thesis remains intact.
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Bulls vs Bears: CHRD Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence, anchored by a deeply discounted EV/EBITDA of 3.72x, a 'strong buy' consensus with 19.1% average upside, and a 37.08% year-over-year revenue rebound in Q1 2026. However, the bear case raises valid concerns about the sustainability of the 5.93% dividend yield given a 714.7% payout ratio and the risks of single-basin concentration. The single most important tension is whether the forward EPS estimate of $14.68—which underpins the 9.30x forward PE—is achievable; if oil prices hold above $75, the earnings recovery justifies the valuation gap closing, but a sustained move below $65 would likely trigger a dividend cut and multiple compression. Near-term technicals show consolidation with negative 1-month relative strength, suggesting the market is waiting for confirmation of the earnings trajectory before pushing the stock through the $157.06 resistance.
Bullish
- Deep value on cash flow: EV/EBITDA of 3.72x is roughly half the typical E&P sector range of 6-8x, while forward PE of 9.30x sits 20-35% below the sector's 10-14x average. This discount persists despite a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.186 and a 5.93% dividend yield that exceeds most peers.
- Strong analyst consensus and upside: 16 analysts rate the stock a 'strong buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.47, and the average target price of $172.13 implies 19.1% upside from $144.49. The high target of $217 suggests 50% upside if the Williston-focused strategy delivers.
- Revenue and margin recovery underway: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.666 billion grew 37.08% year-over-year, and quarterly gross margin improved sequentially from 10.37% in Q4 2025 to 22.24% in Q1 2026. Net income swung to $108.6 million from a $389.9 million loss in Q2 2025, signaling the impairment-driven trough is past.
- Robust free cash flow and shareholder returns: TTM free cash flow of $500.9 million and Q1 2026 free cash flow of $156.2 million demonstrate cash generation even in a softer commodity environment. The company returned $141.9 million through dividends and buybacks in Q1 2026, supported by $507.5 million in quarterly operating cash flow.
Bearish
- Dividend funded from cash flow, not earnings: The payout ratio of 714.7% against trailing EPS of $0.0083 means the 5.93% dividend yield is entirely dependent on continued free cash flow generation. With capital expenditures consuming 69% of operating cash flow in Q1 2026, a sustained oil price decline could force a dividend cut or reduced buybacks.
- Thin profitability and impairment risk: TTM net margin is just 0.91% and ROE is 0.55%, depressed by the $542 million impairment charge in Q2 2025. Gross margin of 6.46% on a trailing basis remains far below the 30.69% recorded in Q1 2025, and any further commodity weakness could trigger additional write-downs.
- Single-basin concentration risk: Chord operates almost exclusively in the Williston Basin, with the $550 million Marcellus divestiture further concentrating exposure. This lack of diversification means operational disruptions, regulatory changes in North Dakota, or localized cost inflation could disproportionately impact results.
- Near-term momentum has stalled: The stock is down 2.26% over the past month and 1.78% on the most recent session, with relative strength versus SPY turning negative over both the 1-month (-1.30 pp) and 6-month (-7.90 pp) periods. This divergence from the strong 1-year trend suggests the rally may be overextended near the 52-week high of $157.06.
CHRD Technical Analysis
Chord Energy is in a sustained uptrend, with the shares up 38.49% over the past year and 52.61% year-to-date, decisively outperforming the S&P 500's 15.01% and 11.70% respective gains. At a current price of $144.49, the stock sits at roughly 92% of its 52-week range (low of $84.25, high of $157.06), a positioning that signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of overextension near the upper boundary. The 52.61% YTD advance versus the S&P's 11.70% represents a relative strength advantage of 40.91 percentage points, confirming that capital has rotated decisively into this name throughout 2026.
Short-term momentum has cooled, however, with the stock down 2.26% over the past month and 1.78% on the most recent session, diverging from the powerful 17.36% three-month gain and 9.54% six-month advance. This divergence between a strong 1-year trend and a negative 1-month reading suggests a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal, particularly since the 3-month figure remains firmly positive. The stock's relative strength versus SPY has turned negative over the past month (-1.30 percentage points) and six months (-7.90 percentage points), indicating that the recent pullback is a genuine loss of near-term leadership even as the longer-term trend remains intact.
Key technical support rests at the 52-week low of $84.25, with intermediate support likely near the $130-$135 zone where the stock consolidated in July and August; resistance is defined by the 52-week high of $157.06, which the stock briefly approached on September 15 before pulling back. A breakout above $157 would signal renewed momentum and likely open the door to new highs, while a breakdown below $130 would suggest the uptrend is faltering and could expose the mid-$110s. With a beta of just 0.385, Chord is roughly 61% less volatile than the broader market, meaning its 25.43% maximum drawdown occurred with far less day-to-day price swings than a typical high-beta energy name, which supports larger position sizing for risk-tolerant investors but also implies muted upside capture in sharp market rallies.
Beta
0.39
0.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$84-$157
Price range past year
Annual Return
+38.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHRD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.3% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +17.4% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +9.5% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +38.5% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +52.6% | +11.7% |
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CHRD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been highly volatile but is showing a sharp rebound: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.666 billion grew 37.08% year-over-year versus Q1 2025's $1.215 billion, a dramatic acceleration from the prior quarters. The quarterly trajectory reveals significant swings, from $1.181 billion in Q2 2025 to $1.312 billion in Q3 2025, $1.169 billion in Q4 2025, and then the Q1 2026 surge, with oil production contributing $1.712 billion of segment revenue alongside $624 million in purchased oil sales and $14 million in purchased gas sales. This growth is driven primarily by the core oil production segment, though the heavy weighting toward purchased oil sales introduces margin variability tied to commodity trading spreads.
Profitability is thin but recovering: Q1 2026 net income was $108.6 million on a 6.52% net margin, a substantial improvement from the Q2 2025 loss of $389.9 million (a -33.03% net margin) that was driven by a $542 million impairment charge. Gross margin in Q1 2026 stood at 22.24%, up from 10.37% in Q4 2025 and 14.55% in Q2 2025, though still below the 30.69% recorded in Q1 2025. The TTM gross margin of 6.46% and operating margin of 4.07% reflect the drag from the impairment-heavy 2025 period, but the sequential improvement in quarterly gross margins from 10.37% to 22.24% suggests the worst of the margin compression is behind the company.
The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.186 and a current ratio of 1.06, while TTM free cash flow of $500.9 million and Q1 2026 free cash flow of $156.2 million demonstrate the business generates cash even in a softer commodity environment. However, ROE of just 0.55% and ROA of 5.37% remain depressed by the 2025 impairment, and the dividend payout ratio of 714.7% against trailing EPS of $0.0083 signals that the 5.93% dividend yield is being funded from cash flow rather than earnings, which is sustainable given the $507.5 million in quarterly operating cash flow but leaves little room for error if oil prices decline. Capital expenditures of $351.3 million in Q1 2026 consumed 69% of operating cash flow, and the company returned $141.9 million through dividends and buybacks, highlighting a shareholder-return model that depends on sustained commodity prices.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+37.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$500923000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHRD Overvalued?
Because Chord Energy's trailing net income is positive but negligible (EPS of $0.0083), the trailing PE of 125.3x is distorted and not meaningful; the forward PE of 9.30x is the more relevant metric, and the enormous gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery. This expectation is supported by analyst estimated EPS of $14.68 for the forward period, which would represent a massive rebound from the impairment-depressed trailing figure, and the EV/EBITDA of 3.72x confirms the company is cheap on a cash-flow basis despite the optically expensive trailing PE.
Relative to the broader energy sector, Chord trades at a significant discount: its price-to-book ratio of 0.66x and price-to-sales ratio of 1.10x are well below typical E&P sector averages, while the EV/EBITDA of 3.72x is roughly half the sector's typical 6-8x range. The forward PE of 9.30x versus a sector average that typically ranges from 10-14x represents a roughly 20-35% discount, which appears unjustified given the company's low debt-to-equity of 0.186, strong free cash flow generation, and 5.93% dividend yield that exceeds most peers. The discount likely reflects the company's single-basin concentration risk and the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the earnings recovery implied by forward estimates.
Historically, Chord's valuation has compressed dramatically: the PE ratio has fallen from 8.47x in Q4 2024 to 7.68x in Q1 2025 and now sits at 125.3x on a trailing basis, while the price-to-book has declined from 0.82x in Q4 2024 to 0.66x currently. The PS ratio has fallen from 4.88x in Q4 2024 to 1.10x today, and the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 51.6x is elevated relative to the 26.8x recorded in Q4 2024, reflecting the compression in trailing free cash flow. The current PB of 0.66x is near the low end of the stock's historical range (which has spanned 0.65x to 2.37x since 2021), suggesting either a deep value opportunity or a market that is pricing in sustained commodity weakness.
PE
125.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Chord's financial risk profile is dominated by its dividend sustainability and thin trailing profitability. The payout ratio of 714.7% against trailing EPS of $0.0083 means the 5.93% yield is funded entirely from cash flow, and with capital expenditures consuming 69% of Q1 2026 operating cash flow ($351.3 million of $507.5 million), the margin for error is narrow. While debt-to-equity of 0.186 and a current ratio of 1.06 provide balance sheet cushion, TTM net margin of just 0.91% and ROE of 0.55% leave little buffer if oil prices decline. The $542 million impairment in Q2 2025 that drove a $389.9 million quarterly loss highlights the vulnerability of the asset base to commodity price write-downs.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and commodity price sensitivity. The stock trades at a forward PE of 9.30x, a discount to the sector's 10-14x range, but this discount could persist if the market doubts the $14.68 forward EPS estimate. The recent Hormuz reopening that triggered a 14% crude price plunge illustrates the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices, and Chord's revenue is directly exposed to such swings. With a beta of 0.385, the stock is less volatile than the market, but its 52.61% YTD gain has been driven by sector rotation into energy; a reversal of that rotation could pressure shares. Additionally, the $550 million Marcellus divestiture, while simplifying the portfolio, concentrates risk further in the Williston Basin, where regulatory or operational setbacks could have outsized impact.
The worst-case scenario involves a sustained oil price decline below $65 per barrel, which would compress cash flow, force a dividend reduction, and trigger analyst downgrades. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $84.25, representing a 41.7% decline from the current price of $144.49. The analyst low target of $133 implies a more moderate 7.9% downside, but if the forward EPS estimate is cut in half to $7.34, the forward PE would rise to 19.7x, making the stock expensive relative to peers. A combination of weakening oil demand, increased U.S. shale production, and a strong dollar could catalyze this outcome, with the maximum drawdown of 25.43% over the past year serving as a recent reminder of the downside volatility.
FAQ
The most severe risk is dividend sustainability, as the payout ratio of 714.7% against trailing EPS of $0.0083 means the 5.93% yield is entirely dependent on free cash flow, which could be pressured by falling oil prices. Second is commodity price risk, with the recent Hormuz reopening triggering a 14% crude plunge highlighting sensitivity; a sustained move below $65 would likely force a dividend cut and multiple compression. Third is single-basin concentration, as the $550 million Marcellus divestiture further focuses operations on the Williston Basin, increasing exposure to regional regulatory or operational disruptions. Fourth is impairment risk, evidenced by the $542 million charge in Q2 2025 that caused a $389.9 million quarterly loss, which could recur if oil prices decline.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) with a target range of $155-$175, assuming WTI averages $75 and forward EPS of $14.68 is achieved; a bull case (30% probability) targeting $180-$217 if oil sustains above $80 and the market re-rates the stock toward peer multiples; and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $84-$133 if oil falls below $65 and the dividend is cut. The most likely scenario is the base case, which aligns with the analyst average target of $172.13 and implies 7-21% upside from the current price of $144.49. The key assumption behind the base case is that oil prices remain range-bound and the company maintains its dividend while generating $500-$600 million in free cash flow.
CHRD appears undervalued on most cash-flow metrics. Its EV/EBITDA of 3.72x is roughly half the typical E&P sector range of 6-8x, and its forward PE of 9.30x is 20-35% below the sector's 10-14x average. The price-to-book ratio of 0.66x is near the low end of its historical range (0.65x to 2.37x since 2021), and the price-to-sales ratio of 1.10x is well below typical E&P levels. The market is paying a discount that implies skepticism about the sustainability of the forward EPS estimate of $14.68, but if that estimate is achieved, the stock would likely re-rate higher. The 5.93% dividend yield further supports the undervaluation case relative to peers.
From a risk/reward perspective, CHRD offers a favorable setup with 19.1% upside to the average analyst target of $172.13 and a 5.93% dividend yield, supported by a 'strong buy' consensus from 16 analysts. The stock trades at a forward PE of 9.30x and EV/EBITDA of 3.72x, both well below sector averages, suggesting the market is underpricing its cash flow generation. However, the biggest downside risk is a dividend cut if oil prices fall below $65, which could send the stock toward its 52-week low of $84.25, a 41.7% decline. It is a good buy for value-oriented investors with a 1-2 year horizon who can tolerate commodity price volatility, but less suitable for those seeking stable income without commodity exposure.
CHRD is better suited for a medium-to-long-term investment horizon of at least 1-2 years, given its low beta of 0.385, which reduces day-to-day volatility, and its 5.93% dividend yield that rewards patience. The company's growth stage is mature but with recovery potential, as evidenced by the 37.08% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026 and the forward EPS estimate of $14.68. Earnings visibility is moderate, dependent on oil prices, but the strong free cash flow generation and conservative balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 0.186) provide a margin of safety. Short-term trading is less advisable due to the stock's recent consolidation and negative 1-month relative strength, but long-term holders can benefit from the valuation discount and potential multiple expansion.
