Cleveland-Cliffs
CLF
$9.40
-1.16%
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a vertically integrated flat-rolled steel producer and iron ore pellet manufacturer in North America, serving the automotive, infrastructure, and industrial markets. As the largest flat-rolled steel producer in the region, it distinguishes itself through vertical integration from raw materials to downstream finishing, stamping, and tubing. The current investor narrative centers on the company's struggle to achieve profitability amid weak steel pricing and high fixed costs, with recent news highlighting a divergence in performance among steelmakers under protective tariffs, where Cleveland-Cliffs has lagged more efficient peers like Steel Dynamics.…
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
$9.40
Related headlines
CLF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cleveland-Cliffs's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.22 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.22
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$8 - $12
Analyst target range
Only 5 analysts cover CLF, indicating limited institutional interest typical of a mid-cap cyclical. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the distribution from institutional ratings shows 1 Overweight (Morgan Stanley), 2 Neutral/Equal Weight (Wells Fargo, Citigroup), 1 Sell (GLJ Research), and 1 Sector Weight (Keybanc). The average target price is not directly given, but the estimated EPS average of $1.50 for the next fiscal year implies a forward PE of 19.7x, suggesting a target price around $29.55 (19.7 * $1.50). This would represent +200% upside from the current $9.86, but such a target is highly optimistic given current losses. The low EPS estimate of $1.40 and high of $1.55 indicate a narrow range, suggesting analysts have relatively high conviction in a recovery. However, the wide gap between current price and implied target highlights extreme uncertainty. The high target likely assumes a sharp rebound in steel prices and margins, while the low target may reflect a slower recovery. Recent rating actions show downgrades: Seaport Global moved from Buy to Neutral in January 2026, and Keybanc from Overweight to Sector Weight, while Morgan Stanley upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight. This mixed sentiment underscores the stock's binary risk-reward profile. Insufficient analyst coverage can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as seen in CLF's sharp moves.
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CLF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of +12.6% masking a severe decline from its 52-week high of $16.70. Currently trading at $9.86, the stock sits at 59% of its 52-week range (low $7.73, high $16.70), indicating it is closer to the low end, which could suggest a value opportunity but also reflects persistent selling pressure. The beta of 2.135 implies the stock is more than twice as volatile as the S&P 500, amplifying both upside and downside risks. Short-term momentum is decisively bearish: the 1-month price change is -33.2%, while the 3-month change is +17.4%, creating a divergence. The sharp 1-month decline suggests a recent acceleration of selling, potentially a capitulation move, while the 3-month gain indicates a prior recovery from the March lows near $7.82. This conflicting pattern may signal a failed rally or a temporary pullback within a broader recovery, but the recent breakdown below $10.50 (June support) is concerning. The 52-week low of $7.73 serves as critical support; a break below would signal further downside toward $7.00. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $16.70, but nearer-term resistance lies at $12.00 (June breakdown level). A move above $12.00 could indicate a reversal, while failure to hold $9.00 may accelerate losses. With beta of 2.135, the stock's volatility is 113.5% above the market, requiring strict risk management.
Beta
2.13
2.13x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$17
Price range past year
Annual Return
+6.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CLF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -26.1% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +4.0% | +10.6% |
| 6m | -26.3% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +6.2% | +20.4% |
| ytd | -30.9% | +10.2% |
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CLF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been relatively stable but declining slightly, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $4.313 billion, down -0.3% year-over-year. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue averaged ~$4.65 billion, but the trend shows deceleration from $5.099 billion in Q2 2024 to $4.313 billion in Q4 2025. The Steelmaking segment contributed $4.154 billion in Q4 2025, representing 96% of total revenue, indicating heavy concentration. The slight revenue decline reflects weak steel pricing and demand, pressuring the top line. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of -$243 million in Q4 2025 and a trailing twelve-month net loss of -$1.472 billion. Gross margin was -4.4% in Q4 2025, meaning the company sold products below cost, a dire sign for a steelmaker. Operating margin was -7.5%, and net margin was -5.6%. While losses have narrowed from -$495 million in Q1 2025 to -$243 million in Q4 2025, the company remains far from profitability. The negative gross margin suggests severe cost structure issues or inventory write-downs, which are unsustainable. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34, indicating moderate leverage, but free cash flow was -$153 million in Q4 2025 and -$1.023 billion over the trailing twelve months. The company is burning cash, with operating cash flow of -$13 million in Q4 2025. Return on equity is -24.2%, and the current ratio of 1.95 provides some liquidity, but the negative free cash flow raises concerns about the ability to service debt without external financing. The company issued $951 million in common stock in Q4 2025, diluting shareholders to fund operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.28%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-4.43%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CLF Overvalued?
Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 0.35x, based on a market cap of $6.54 billion and trailing twelve-month revenue of ~$18.6 billion. A forward PS is not directly available, but the low PS suggests the market is pricing in minimal value for sales, reflecting deep losses. The EV/Sales ratio of 0.72x is also low, indicating the enterprise value is only 72% of annual sales, typical for distressed cyclicals. Compared to the industry average PS ratio (not provided, but steel sector typically trades around 0.5-1.0x), CLF's 0.35x is at a discount, implying the market expects continued weak profitability. The trailing PE is negative (-4.4x), while the forward PE of 19.7x suggests analysts expect a return to profitability, but this is highly speculative given current losses. Historically, CLF's PS ratio has ranged from 0.35x (current) to over 2.0x in 2021. The current PS is near the bottom of its 5-year range, which could indicate a value trap if losses persist, or a potential turnaround if steel prices recover. The PB ratio of 1.07x is near book value, suggesting limited downside if assets are fairly valued, but negative ROE implies book value is eroding.
PE
-4.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -42x~910x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-148.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
