Wahana Interfood Nusantara
COCO
$51.49
-3.34%
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. is a leading player in the plant-based functional hydration market, primarily known for its flagship Vita Coco Coconut Water, alongside private label offerings and other brands like Runa and Ever & Ever. As a market leader in the coconut water category, the company has leveraged its strong brand recognition and distribution network to expand its product portfolio and geographic reach. Currently, the stock is under scrutiny as investors weigh its impressive revenue growth and margin expansion against a recent sharp pullback in share price, which may reflect concerns about valuation or market sentiment. The company's focus on innovation and international expansion remains central to its growth narrative, but recent price action suggests a period of consolidation or correction after a strong run.…
COCO
Wahana Interfood Nusantara
$51.49
Investment Opinion: Should I buy COCO Today?
Based on the analysis, COCO is rated a Buy. The core thesis is that the company's accelerating revenue growth (37.3% YoY) and expanding margins (gross margin up to 39.7%) will drive earnings growth that justifies the current valuation. The consensus analyst rating is 'Buy' with an average target price of $83.89, implying 52.1% upside from the current price of $55.13.
Sign up to view all
COCO 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. COCO's robust revenue growth and margin expansion support a positive outlook, and the valuation, while not cheap, is justified by the growth trajectory. The main risk is the recent price decline, which could indicate a loss of investor confidence. If the company delivers another quarter of strong results, the stock is likely to recover; however, any sign of growth deceleration would warrant a downgrade to neutral.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wahana Interfood Nusantara's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $83.89 and implied upside of +62.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$83.89
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+62.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$68 - $90
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is moderate, with 9 analysts providing ratings. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.64 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $83.89, implying an upside of +52.1% from the current price of $55.13. The target range is $68.00 (low) to $90.00 (high), indicating a wide dispersion in expectations. The high target suggests that some analysts see significant upside potential, possibly driven by continued growth and margin expansion, while the low target may reflect concerns about competition or market saturation. Recent ratings actions have been positive, with upgrades from Stephens and B of A Securities in late 2025, signaling growing confidence in the company's prospects.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: COCO Investment Factors
COCO presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue (37.3% YoY), expanding margins, and a strong balance sheet, but the recent 25.6% price decline and high valuation multiples introduce significant risk. The bull case is supported by analyst targets implying 52% upside and a forward PE of 23.6x, while the bear case highlights concentration risk and earnings volatility. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its high growth rate to justify its premium valuation; if growth decelerates, the stock could face further downside, but if it continues, the current price may offer an attractive entry point.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 37.3% YoY to $179.8M, up from $130.9M in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. This momentum is driven by strong demand for Vita Coco Coconut Water, which contributed $140.6M, and indicates robust market share gains.
- Expanding Profitability: Gross margin improved to 39.7% in Q1 2026 from 36.6% in Q1 2025, while operating margin expanded to 18.7% from 14.7%. Net income rose to $30.5M (16.9% margin) from $18.9M (14.4% margin) a year ago, demonstrating strong operating leverage.
- Strong Balance Sheet: The company holds a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.045 and a current ratio of 3.62, indicating minimal leverage and ample liquidity. This financial flexibility supports investment in growth initiatives and cushions against market downturns.
- Analyst Confidence High: With a consensus 'Buy' rating (mean 1.64) and an average target price of $83.89, analysts see 52.1% upside from the current price of $55.13. Recent upgrades from Stephens and B of A Securities in late 2025 reinforce positive sentiment.
Bearish
- Sharp Price Decline: The stock has fallen 25.6% over the past three months and 15.0% in the last month, trading at $55.13, down from a 52-week high of $85.83. This pullback suggests waning investor confidence, possibly due to valuation concerns or profit-taking after a strong run.
- High Valuation Multiples: Despite the pullback, the trailing PE of 42.4x and PS ratio of 4.95x are elevated relative to the broader market. The EV/EBITDA of 30.1x indicates the market is pricing in sustained high growth, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Concentration Risk: Vita Coco Coconut Water accounts for 78% of total revenue ($140.6M of $179.8M in Q1 2026). This heavy reliance on a single product line exposes the company to category-specific risks, such as changing consumer preferences or increased competition.
- Earnings Volatility: Quarterly net income has been erratic, with Q4 2025 net margin dropping to 4.3% from 13.2% in Q3 2025, reflecting seasonal and cost pressures. Such volatility can unsettle investors and complicate earnings predictability.
COCO Technical Analysis
The stock has experienced a robust uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +48.0%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% over the same period. However, the current price of $55.13 sits at only 38.6% of the 52-week range (between $37.27 low and $85.83 high), indicating a substantial pullback from its highs. This positioning suggests that while the long-term trend has been bullish, the stock is currently trading near the lower end of its range, potentially offering a value opportunity or signaling a shift in momentum.
Beta
0.74
0.74x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-38.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$38-$86
Price range past year
Annual Return
+33.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COCO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -18.0% | -1.4% |
| 3m | -34.5% | +3.3% |
| 6m | -11.8% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +33.4% | +17.2% |
| ytd | -3.7% | +11.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
COCO Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $179.8 million, a 37.3% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as prior quarters saw revenue of $127.8 million (Q4 2025), $182.3 million (Q3 2025), and $168.8 million (Q2 2025), indicating a strong upward trajectory. The growth is driven primarily by the Vita Coco Coconut Water segment, which contributed $140.6 million in revenue, while Private Label and Other segments added $33.2 million and $6.0 million, respectively. The company's ability to sustain high growth rates is a key driver of its investment case, though investors should monitor whether this pace is sustainable.
Quarterly Revenue
$179765000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+37.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
39.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$64523000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is COCO Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 42.4x, while the forward PE is 23.6x, implying that the market expects significant earnings growth. This gap suggests that investors are pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is supported by the company's recent margin expansion. The PEG ratio of 1.61x indicates that the stock is reasonably valued relative to its expected growth, though it is not cheap.
PE
42.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~56x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include the company's reliance on continued high growth to justify its valuation; the trailing PE of 42.4x leaves no room for error, and any slowdown could trigger multiple compression. While debt is minimal (D/E 0.045), the company's operating margin of 13.6% (TTM) is susceptible to input cost inflation, as seen in Q4 2025 when gross margin fell to 34.5% and net margin to 4.3%. Free cash flow of $64.5M TTM is positive but modest relative to the $3.0B market cap, limiting the margin of safety.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Growth deceleration, as the stock's valuation depends on sustained high growth; a drop below 20% YoY could lead to multiple compression. 2) Concentration risk, with 78% of revenue from coconut water, making it vulnerable to category shifts. 3) Earnings volatility, as seen in Q4 2025 when net margin fell to 4.3%. 4) Market sentiment, as the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30% over the past three months, indicating potential further downside.
Analysts have an average target price of $83.89, with a range of $68 to $90. The base case scenario, with a 50% probability, sees the stock trading around $83.89, assuming revenue growth moderates to 20-25%. The bull case (30% probability) targets $90, while the bear case (20% probability) could see the stock fall to $37.27 if growth stalls. The most likely outcome is a recovery towards the analyst average, driven by continued strong execution.
COCO's trailing PE of 42.4x is high, but the forward PE of 23.6x suggests the market expects significant earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 1.61 indicates the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the broader market, the stock trades at a premium, but this is justified by its superior growth. The market is pricing in continued high growth, and if that materializes, the stock is not overvalued.
COCO appears to be a good buy for growth-oriented investors, given the 52.1% upside to the average analyst target of $83.89. The company's revenue growth of 37.3% YoY and expanding margins provide a strong fundamental backdrop. However, the stock has fallen 25.6% in the past three months, which may indicate near-term uncertainty. For investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, the current price offers an attractive entry point, but it is essential to monitor growth sustainability.
COCO is better suited for long-term investment due to its high growth potential and the time needed for earnings to catch up with the valuation. The stock's beta of 0.744 is lower than the market, but it has shown significant volatility, with a 34.4% max drawdown. Short-term trading is risky given the recent downward momentum. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the growth story to play out and benefit from earnings compounding.
