California Resources Corporation
CRC
$53.75
+3.21%
California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company operating in California and Utah. It is leveraging its extensive land and mineral ownership to develop carbon capture and storage projects, positioning itself at the intersection of traditional energy and decarbonization.…
CRC
California Resources Corporation
$53.75
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CRC Today?
Based on a synthesis of the technical strength, valuation metrics, and fundamental data, the objective assessment for CRC is a Hold. The stock's powerful recent rally has likely priced in near-term optimism, bringing it close to its 52-week high. While the trailing P/E of 10.7 appears attractive, the elevated forward P/E of 18.7 and significant quarterly earnings volatility suggest caution. The current level may be more suitable for monitoring rather than initiating new positions, awaiting more consistent fundamental performance.
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CRC 12-Month Price Forecast
The analysis suggests a neutral stance due to conflicting signals: powerful price momentum is at odds with volatile underlying earnings. The risk/reward appears balanced at the current price after a significant run-up.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on California Resources Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $77.55 and implied upside of +44.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$77.55
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+44.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$58 - $87
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst coverage for CRC is limited, with only three analysts providing estimates. The consensus estimated EPS for the coming period is $5.24, with a range from $4.84 to $5.70, while estimated revenue averages $3.82 billion. Recent institutional ratings from firms like Barclays and Wells Fargo maintain 'Overweight' or 'Buy' stances, indicating a generally positive outlook among covering analysts, though the small sample size suggests coverage is not extensive.
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Bulls vs Bears: CRC Investment Factors
CRC presents a compelling but high-conviction opportunity. Strong technical momentum and a low trailing P/E ratio are countered by significant quarterly earnings volatility and high short interest. The stock's recent run places it near yearly highs, demanding careful evaluation of sustainability.
Bullish
- Strong Technical Momentum: Stock up 54.8% in 3 months, near 52-week high, showing robust price action.
- Attractive Trailing Valuation: Trailing P/E of 10.7 suggests potential undervaluation based on current earnings.
- Healthy Cash Flow & Dividend: Generated $543M TTM FCF, supporting a sustainable 3.5% dividend yield.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Limited coverage shows 'Overweight'/'Buy' ratings and positive EPS estimates.
Bearish
- Earnings Volatility: Q4 net income dropped sharply to $12M from $64M in Q3.
- Revenue Decline: Q4 revenue fell 5.9% YoY, indicating potential operational headwinds.
- High Short Interest: Short ratio of 7.76 suggests significant market skepticism.
- Cyclical Industry Risk: Performance is heavily tied to volatile oil and gas prices.
CRC Technical Analysis
The stock has demonstrated a strong and sustained uptrend over the observed six-month period, rising from approximately $52 in early October 2025 to close at $69.22 on March 31, 2026, representing a gain of roughly 33%. Short-term performance has been exceptionally strong, with the stock up 17.64% over the past month and 54.82% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the broader market as indicated by relative strength figures of 22.89 and 59.45, respectively. The current price of $69.22 is near the top of its 52-week range of $30.97 to $71.98, trading just 3.8% below the yearly high, indicating the stock is in a technically strong position.
Beta
0.90
0.90x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$72
Price range past year
Annual Return
+13.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CRC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.4% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -9.9% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -5.3% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +13.0% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +15.9% | +13.4% |
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CRC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and profitability have shown volatility, with Q4 2025 revenue of $871 million representing a 5.9% year-over-year decline, while net income for the quarter was a modest $12 million, down sharply from $64 million in Q3. The annual net margin is reported at 10.07%, but quarterly results indicate significant fluctuations in earnings. The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 and generated substantial free cash flow of $543 million over the trailing twelve months, supporting a healthy dividend yield of 3.5%. Operational efficiency metrics show a return on equity of 9.88% and a return on assets of 6.42%, indicating reasonable but not exceptional capital efficiency.
Quarterly Revenue
$871000000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-5.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
35.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$543000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CRC Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the trailing P/E ratio of 10.72, which appears low and suggests the stock may be undervalued on an earnings basis. The forward P/E of 18.74 is higher, reflecting expectations for future earnings growth. For peer comparison, industry average valuation metrics are not provided in the data, so a relative assessment cannot be made.
PE
10.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 1x~17x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk for CRC is its operational and financial volatility, as evidenced by the sharp quarterly decline in net income from $64 million in Q3 to $12 million in Q4, alongside a year-over-year revenue drop. This underscores the inherent cyclicality and commodity price sensitivity of the oil & gas exploration sector. Furthermore, a high short ratio of 7.76 indicates substantial bearish sentiment and potential for increased selling pressure. While the company's foray into carbon management offers a long-term strategic hedge, its near-term financials remain exposed to energy market fluctuations and execution risks within its core business.
FAQ
Key risks include high earnings volatility, as seen in the Q4 net income drop to $12M from $64M the prior quarter. The stock has a high short ratio of 7.76, indicating bearish sentiment and potential for sharp declines. Furthermore, as an oil & gas producer, CRC's performance is directly tied to volatile commodity prices, posing a constant cyclical risk.
The 12-month outlook presents a base case target range of $65-$75, assuming the company meets the consensus EPS estimate of $5.24. A bull case (30% probability) could see $75-$85 on strong oil prices and CCS success, while a bear case (20% probability) might see a pullback to $45-$55 on earnings disappointment or falling energy prices.
CRC sends mixed valuation signals. It appears undervalued based on its trailing P/E ratio of 10.7, which is low. However, the forward P/E of 18.7 suggests the market is pricing in significant earnings growth. Given the recent price surge and earnings volatility, the stock is likely fairly valued at current levels, neither deeply undervalued nor egregiously overvalued.
At its current price near the 52-week high, CRC is assessed as a Hold. The stock has had a powerful run, gaining over 54% in three months. While its trailing P/E of 10.7 looks cheap, earnings have been volatile, and the forward P/E is a much higher 18.7. New investors may want to wait for a pullback or more consistent quarterly results.
CRC may be more suitable for tactical, shorter-term investors who can navigate its volatility and commodity cycle. Long-term investors might be attracted to its carbon capture potential and dividend, but must accept the inherent cyclicality of the energy sector. The high short interest and recent rapid price appreciation also add near-term trading risks.
