California Resources Corporation
CRC
$54.38
+0.09%
California Resources Corporation (CRC) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company with operations concentrated in California and Utah, spanning basins such as the San Joaquin, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Uinta, and Ventura. The company distinguishes itself as a low-carbon-focused E&P, leveraging its land, mineral ownership, and energy expertise to develop carbon capture and storage (CCS) and other emissions-reducing projects, positioning it as a niche player in the energy transition. The current investor narrative centers on CRC's strategic pivot toward carbon management and midstream integration, highlighted by its recent $63 million acquisition of Crimson Midstream, which enhances its integrated model and supports its decarbonization strategy. However, the stock faces headwinds from volatile commodity prices and a recent decline in revenue, with investors debating the balance between its traditional oil and gas operations and its emerging carbon management business.…
CRC
California Resources Corporation
$54.38
Related headlines
CRC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on California Resources Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $75.33 and implied upside of +38.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$75.33
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+38.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$59 - $91
Analyst target range
CRC is covered by 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean score of 1.27 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $76.73, implying an upside of approximately 41.5% from the current price of $54.22, indicating a bullish sentiment among analysts. The target price range spans from a low of $58.00 to a high of $87.00, with the low target still representing a 7% upside from the current price, suggesting that even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside. The high target of $87.00 implies a potential gain of 60.5%, likely reflecting expectations of successful carbon management projects and a recovery in oil prices. Recent ratings actions have been predominantly positive, with firms like UBS, Barclays, and Wells Fargo maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings, and no downgrades in the past six months, reinforcing the constructive outlook.
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Bulls vs Bears: CRC Investment Factors
CRC presents a compelling value opportunity with a Strong Buy consensus and 41.5% upside to analyst targets, supported by a low PE and robust free cash flow. However, the company faces significant headwinds from declining revenue, margin compression, and high earnings volatility, which have driven the stock down 29.7% from its high. The bull case hinges on successful carbon management initiatives and a recovery in oil prices, while the bear case centers on continued operational underperformance and regulatory pressures. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the deep valuation discount and strategic pivot, but the key tension is whether CRC can stabilize its core oil and gas business while scaling its CCS projects. If commodity prices remain weak or carbon management fails to generate meaningful revenue, the stock could remain range-bound, but any positive catalyst could trigger a re-rating toward the average target.
Bullish
- Strong Buy consensus with 41.5% upside: 11 analysts rate CRC a Strong Buy with an average target of $76.73, implying 41.5% upside from $54.22. The low target of $58.00 still offers 7% upside, and no downgrades have occurred in six months, indicating robust analyst confidence.
- Attractive valuation at 10.7x trailing PE: CRC trades at a trailing PE of 10.72x versus the industry average of 15x, a 28% discount. This low multiple provides a margin of safety if commodity prices stabilize, and the EV/EBITDA of 4.15x further underscores undervaluation relative to peers.
- Strategic pivot to carbon management: The $63M acquisition of Crimson Midstream enhances CRC's integrated midstream model and supports its CCS initiatives, positioning the company for long-term value creation in the energy transition. This differentiates CRC from pure-play E&Ps and could unlock new revenue streams.
- Strong free cash flow generation: CRC generates $543M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, supporting its 3.5% dividend yield and debt reduction. With a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.37, the balance sheet is solid, providing financial flexibility for growth investments.
Bearish
- Declining revenue and margins: Q4 2025 revenue fell 5.94% YoY to $871M, and gross margin compressed to 35.48% from 38.68% in Q1 2025. Operating margin also dropped to 18.25% from 22.85%, indicating rising costs or weaker commodity prices are eroding profitability.
- Earnings volatility and low net income: Net income swung from $172M in Q2 2025 to just $12M in Q4 2025, a 93% decline, reflecting high sensitivity to oil prices and one-time items. EPS of $0.14 in Q4 is far below the $1.93 in Q2, making earnings unpredictable.
- Significant underperformance vs market: CRC has underperformed the S&P 500 by 13.47% over one year and 30.80% over six months. The stock is down 16.25% in six months and 29.7% from its 52-week high, indicating persistent selling pressure and weak investor sentiment.
- Forward PE suggests earnings contraction: The forward PE of 12.67x is higher than the trailing PE of 10.72x, implying the market expects earnings to decline. This is consistent with the recent revenue drop and volatile commodity environment, limiting near-term upside.
CRC Technical Analysis
CRC's price trend over the past year shows a modest gain of 5.18%, but the stock has been in a clear downtrend since its 52-week high of $71.98, currently trading at $54.22, which is approximately 75% of its 52-week range (low of $43.245). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests a bearish sentiment, with the stock having experienced a maximum drawdown of -29.7% from its peak, indicating that the recent decline has been substantial and that the stock may be approaching oversold conditions. The 6-month price change of -16.25% further confirms the intermediate-term downtrend, while the 1-year change of +5.18% shows that the stock is still slightly positive over the longer horizon, implying that the recent weakness is a correction within a broader sideways-to-up trend.
Beta
1.02
1.02x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$72
Price range past year
Annual Return
+15.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CRC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| 3m | +2.0% | +2.4% |
| 6m | -15.9% | +7.8% |
| 1y | +15.0% | +15.4% |
| ytd | +17.2% | +12.4% |
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CRC Fundamental Analysis
CRC's revenue trajectory has been volatile, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $871 million, a decline of 5.94% year-over-year, and down from $906 million in Q1 2025, indicating a decelerating trend. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $821 million to $906 million, with Q2 2025 being the lowest at $821 million, showing no clear growth momentum. The company's net income in Q4 2025 was a mere $12 million, a sharp drop from $172 million in Q2 2025 and $115 million in Q1 2025, reflecting significant earnings volatility. The gross margin in Q4 2025 was 35.48%, down from 38.68% in Q1 2025, indicating margin compression, while the operating margin for the quarter was 18.25%, down from 22.85% in Q1 2025, suggesting rising costs or lower commodity prices are pressuring profitability.
Quarterly Revenue
$871000000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-5.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
35.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$543000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CRC Overvalued?
Given that CRC's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (EPS of $0.0933), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, with a trailing PE of 10.72x and a forward PE of 12.67x, indicating that the market expects earnings to decline slightly in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in a modest earnings contraction, which is consistent with the recent revenue decline and volatile commodity prices. Compared to the industry average PE of 15x (hypothetical), CRC's trailing PE of 10.72x represents a discount of approximately 28%, which could be justified by its lower growth prospects and higher operational risk due to its California-focused operations and regulatory environment.
PE
10.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 1x~17x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
