The Walt Disney Company
DIS
$108.59
+1.91%
The Walt Disney Company operates three global business segments — Entertainment (ABC, cable networks, Disney+ and Hulu streaming, plus film and TV production), Sports (the ESPN family of networks and streaming services), and Experiences (theme parks, cruises, vacation destinations, and merchandise licensing) — positioning it as one of the largest diversified media and entertainment conglomerates in the world. Its competitive identity rests on an unmatched portfolio of iconic franchises and characters (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, Disney Animation) that feed a virtuous cycle across theatrical, streaming, and physical experiences, a moat few peers can replicate. The current investor narrative centers on a leadership transition and strategic pivot: Bob Iger built Disney for Hollywood, while new CEO Josh D'Amaro is refocusing the company around its Experiences segment, a shift highlighted in recent coverage noting the stock trades roughly 49% below its all-time high. That pivot, combined with a strong earnings beat, theme-park strength, and a $9 billion buyback, has revived the bull case, though bears point to streaming competition (Apple TV+ pricing backlash, Netflix volatility, and industry consolidation such as Fox-Roku and a Comcast/NBCUniversal spinoff) and the stock's history of failing to hold above $100.…
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
$108.59
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy DIS Today?
Based on the synthesized data, Disney earns a Buy rating with a medium confidence level. The core thesis is that Disney is a high-quality media conglomerate trading at a discount to its historical valuation and to the broader market, with a strong analyst consensus (strong_buy, average target $128.18 implying +20.3% upside) and a clear catalyst in the Experiences-led pivot under new CEO Josh D'Amaro. The risk/reward is favorable for long-term investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility.
The supporting evidence is compelling: DIS trades at a forward PE of 14.27x, well below the S&P 500's average and its own historical multiples (trailing PE was 38.86x in Q4 2025). Revenue grew 6.55% YoY to $25.168B, with stable gross margins around 36.8% and a net margin of 13.14%. Free cash flow TTM is $7.11B, funding $3.466B in buybacks and $1.337B in dividends in the latest quarter alone. The PEG ratio of 0.108 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, though the trailing EPS base is distorted. The analyst consensus target of $128.18 offers 20.3% upside, and the high target of $160 implies a potential 50% gain if the turnaround accelerates.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include: (1) revenue growth decelerating below 5% if streaming competition intensifies, (2) margin compression from higher content and park investment costs, and (3) execution risk around the leadership transition. The rating would upgrade to a high-conviction Buy if revenue growth accelerates above 8% and streaming profitability improves, or downgrade to Hold if the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $92.19 or if forward PE expands above 18x without corresponding earnings growth. Relative to its history and peers, Disney appears undervalued, trading at a PS of 2.17x and PB of 1.86x, both near multi-year lows.
Sign up to view all
DIS 12-Month Price Forecast
Disney presents a balanced risk/reward profile with a slight bullish tilt. The stock is undervalued on a forward PE basis (14.27x) and has strong analyst support (strong_buy, $128.18 target), but revenue growth is only 6.55% and competition is intensifying. The Experiences pivot under new CEO D'Amaro is a potential catalyst, but execution risk is high. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates above 8% and streaming profitability improves, or downgrade to bearish if the stock breaks below $92 or if forward PE expands above 18x without earnings growth. The base case (55% probability) targets $110-$128, reflecting steady progress but no dramatic re-rating.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Walt Disney Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $128.34 and implied upside of +18.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$128.34
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$88 - $160
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust, with 31 analysts following Disney and a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" (recommendation mean of 1.4375 on a 1–5 scale where 1 is a strong buy). The average price target is $128.18, which implies roughly +20.3% upside from the current price of $106.55, and the consensus EPS estimate of $10.43 for the forward period supports that optimism. Sentiment clearly leans bullish: the institutional ratings feed shows a steady stream of reaffirmed Overweight/Buy/Outperform ratings from Wells Fargo, Rosenblatt, Raymond James, JP Morgan, Needham, Citigroup, and Barclays between May and July 2026, with no downgrades in the sample — a pattern of maintained conviction rather than fresh upgrades, which suggests analysts are comfortable with the turnaround but not yet chasing the stock higher. The target range is unusually wide, from a low of $88.00 to a high of $160.00 — a spread of $72, or roughly 82% of the low target — which signals significant disagreement about Disney's trajectory. The high target of $160 implies roughly +50% upside and would require a combination of multiple expansion (back toward 20x+ forward earnings), accelerating streaming profitability, and a successful Experiences-led capital allocation under new CEO Josh D'Amaro; it effectively prices in a full re-rating to a premium media multiple. The low target of $88 sits about 17.4% below the current price and implies the bear case: margin compression from streaming competition, continued linear-TV erosion, and execution risk around the leadership transition and park capex. The wide dispersion, combined with a beta of 1.409 and a short ratio of 2.16, tells investors that while the consensus direction is bullish, the range of outcomes is broad — position sizing and a clear thesis on the D'Amaro strategy are essential, because the gap between the $88 bear case and the $160 bull case is the difference between a value trap and a multi-year re-rating.
Drowning in data?
Find the real signal!
Bulls vs Bears: DIS Investment Factors
The bull case for Disney rests on a historically cheap valuation (forward PE 14.27x), a strong analyst consensus (strong_buy, $128.18 average target), and optimism around the Experiences-led pivot under new CEO Josh D'Amaro. The bear case emphasizes decelerating revenue growth (6.55% YoY), significant underperformance versus the S&P 500 (-25.21% relative over one year), and intensifying streaming competition. Currently, the bull evidence appears stronger given the valuation discount, stable margins, and unanimous analyst support, but the bear case is not without merit given the stock's history of failing to hold above $100. The single most important tension is whether the Experiences pivot can accelerate revenue growth and justify multiple expansion, or whether low-single-digit growth will keep the stock range-bound. If the D'Amaro strategy delivers, the stock could re-rate toward the $128 average target; if growth stalls, the low multiple could prove justified.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus strong buy with 20% upside: 31 analysts cover DIS with a consensus recommendation of 'strong_buy' (mean 1.4375 on a 1-5 scale) and an average price target of $128.18, implying +20.3% upside from the current $106.55. The high target of $160 suggests a full re-rating is possible if the Experiences-led strategy delivers.
- Forward PE of 14.27x is historically cheap: DIS trades at a forward PE of 14.27x versus a trailing PE of 16.49x, a 13.5% discount that implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.108 and PS ratio of 2.17x are low for a company with Disney's brand strength and $25.2B quarterly revenue.
- Experiences pivot under new CEO D'Amaro: New CEO Josh D'Amaro is refocusing Disney around its Experiences segment, which includes theme parks, cruises, and merchandise licensing. Recent news highlights the stock trades 49% below its all-time high, and the pivot combined with a strong earnings beat and $9B buyback has revived the bull case.
- Profitability stable with 36.8% gross margin: The latest quarter delivered $2.247B net income on a 36.82% gross margin and 15.05% operating margin, with net margin of 13.14%. Gross margin has been remarkably stable across recent quarters (35.84% to 38.55%), indicating disciplined cost management.
Bearish
- Revenue growth decelerating at 6.55% YoY: Revenue grew 6.55% YoY to $25.168B in the latest quarter, but the multi-quarter trend shows revenue oscillating in a $22.5-$26.0B band, implying low-to-mid single-digit growth rather than acceleration. This modest growth may not justify multiple expansion.
- Stock down 8.99% over past year vs SPY +16.22%: DIS has underperformed the S&P 500 by 25.21 percentage points over the past year, and year-to-date it is down 4.74% while SPY is up 12.08%. The -22.24% max drawdown underscores that this stock has repeatedly punished breakout buyers.
- Streaming competition intensifying: Recent news highlights Apple TV+ pricing backlash, Netflix volatility, and industry consolidation such as Fox-Roku and a Comcast/NBCUniversal spinoff. These competitive pressures could limit Disney's streaming profitability and pricing power.
- Current ratio of 0.710 signals tight liquidity: The current ratio of 0.710 is below 1, indicating that current liabilities exceed current assets. While typical for Disney due to deferred revenue, it leaves limited cushion if free cash flow turns negative again, as it did in Q1 2026 with -$2.278B.
DIS Technical Analysis
Disney is in a recovery phase rather than a sustained uptrend: the stock is down 8.99% over the past year (versus SPY's +16.22%, a -25.21% relative-strength gap), yet it has climbed 7.31% over six months and 6.51% over three months. At $106.55, the shares sit at roughly 57.7% of the 52-week range (low $92.19, high $117.09), meaning they are in the upper-middle of the band — neither a falling knife nor an overextended momentum name — with the 52-week high about 9.9% above the current price and the low about 13.5% below. The -22.24% max drawdown underscores that this is a stock that has repeatedly punished breakout buyers, so positioning near the middle of the range is consistent with a market still debating the durability of the turnaround. Recent momentum is clearly improving and diverging positively from the longer-term trend: the stock is up 3.23% over one month versus SPY's -1.06% (a +4.29% relative-strength edge) and up 6.51% over three months versus SPY's +3.04% (+3.47% relative). That said, year-to-date the stock is still down 4.74% while SPY is up 12.08% (-16.82% relative), so the one-month strength looks like a mean-reversion bounce off the July lows near $92.83 rather than a confirmed trend reversal — the August run from $98.14 (Aug 3) to $111.25 (Aug 25) was sharp, and the subsequent pullback to $106.55 suggests some momentum fatigue. Volume of roughly 7.26 million shares and a short ratio of 2.16 indicate no aggressive short-squeeze dynamic, so the move higher appears driven by fundamental re-rating rather than positioning. Key levels are well defined: resistance sits at the 52-week high of $117.09, and a decisive breakout above that level would signal the market is finally pricing in the D'Amaro experiences-led strategy and could open a path toward the analyst consensus target; support rests at the 52-week low of $92.19, with the July swing low of $92.83 reinforcing that zone — a breakdown below $92 would confirm the multi-year downtrend is intact and likely trigger renewed selling. With a beta of 1.409, Disney is roughly 41% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning a 10% market move implies a ~14% move in DIS; this argues for smaller position sizing and wider stop-losses, particularly given the stock's -22.24% max drawdown and its tendency to whipsaw around the $100 psychological level.
Beta
1.41
1.41x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$92-$117
Price range past year
Annual Return
-6.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DIS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.6% | -2.0% |
| 3m | +7.2% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +9.2% | +15.0% |
| 1y | -6.4% | +15.7% |
| ytd | -2.9% | +11.6% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
DIS Fundamental Analysis
Disney's revenue trajectory is modestly growing but decelerating on a sequential basis: the most recent quarter (ending 2026-03-28) delivered $25.168 billion in revenue with 6.55% YoY growth, up from $23.621 billion in the year-ago quarter, while the prior quarter (2025-12-27) posted $25.981 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue oscillating in a $22.5–$26.0 billion band — Q4 2025 was $22.464 billion, Q3 2025 was $23.650 billion, Q2 2025 was $23.621 billion — implying low-to-mid single-digit growth rather than acceleration. Segment data reveals the growth engine: subscription fees of $10.582 billion are by far the largest revenue line, followed by admission of $3.092 billion, advertising of $2.802 billion, resort and vacations of $2.564 billion, and retail/wholesale merchandise of $2.442 billion, confirming that streaming subscriptions plus parks/experiences are the twin pillars, while theatrical distribution licensing ($1.725 billion) and licensing ($865 million) are smaller contributors. The investment case therefore hinges on whether the Experiences pivot can lift the higher-margin parks and cruise revenue fast enough to offset slower linear-TV and box-office trends. Profitability is solid and improving: the latest quarter produced $2.247 billion in net income on a 36.82% gross margin and 15.05% operating margin, with a net margin of 13.14% on a trailing basis. Comparing recent quarters, gross margin has been remarkably stable — 36.82% (Q2 2026), 35.84% (Q1 2026), 37.60% (Q4 2025), 38.55% (Q3 2025) — while net income has ranged from $1.313 billion to $5.262 billion, the latter inflated by a one-time tax benefit (income tax expense of -$2.732 billion in Q3 2025). The trailing EPS of just $0.06 reflects the lumpiness of quarterly results and one-time items, but the forward EPS estimate of $10.43 and net margin of 13.14% indicate the underlying business is genuinely profitable and that margins are holding near the mid-to-high 30s gross and mid-teens operating levels typical of a scaled media/experiences conglomerate. Balance-sheet health is adequate but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.413, ROE is 11.29%, and ROA is 4.81%, while the current ratio of 0.710 signals tight near-term liquidity that is typical for Disney given its large deferred-revenue and payables balances. Free cash flow tells a more nuanced story — TTM FCF is $7.11 billion, but quarterly FCF has been highly volatile: +$4.941 billion in Q2 2026, -$2.278 billion in Q1 2026 (driven by $3.013 billion of capex and a $5.084 billion working-capital swing), +$2.558 billion in Q4 2025, and +$1.889 billion in Q3 2025. The company is returning substantial capital to shareholders — $3.466 billion of buybacks and $1.337 billion of dividends in the latest quarter alone — while still investing heavily in parks and content, which means it is largely self-funding but has limited cushion if FCF turns negative again; the 0.88% dividend yield and 14.54% payout ratio leave ample room for continued distributions.
Quarterly Revenue
$25.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
36.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is DIS Overvalued?
Because Disney is profitable (net income of $2.247 billion in the latest quarter and positive trailing EPS), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: the stock trades at a trailing PE of 16.49x and a forward PE of 14.27x, a roughly 13.5% discount that implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth over the next twelve months. That expectation is corroborated by the forward EPS estimate of $10.43 versus the current quarterly run-rate, and by the PEG ratio of just 0.108, which on the surface suggests the stock is very cheap relative to its growth rate — though the trailing EPS base is distorted by one-time items, so the PEG should be treated with caution. The EV/EBITDA of 12.77x and EV/Sales of 2.33x provide a cleaner read on the enterprise value, and the 2.17x PS ratio is low in absolute terms for a company with Disney's brand strength. Relative to the Communication Services/Entertainment sector, Disney screens as a value proposition: a trailing PE of 16.49x and forward PE of 14.27x are well below the multiples typically commanded by large-cap media peers, and the 2.17x PS ratio is modest for a business generating $25+ billion in quarterly revenue. The premium/discount question is really about quality versus growth — Disney's 36.82% gross margin and 13.14% net margin are healthy, but its low-single-digit revenue growth (6.55% YoY) and volatile FCF justify a discount to faster-growing streaming pure-plays; the 1.86x price-to-book and 11.31x price-to-cash-flow ratios suggest the market is not paying up for the franchise. Historically, Disney's valuation has compressed dramatically: the PE ratio was 38.86x in Q4 2025, 21.19x in Q1 2026, and 18.19x in Q2 2026, while PS has fallen from 9.11x (Q4 2025) to 6.48x (Q2 2026) on the historical ratios data — though the current reported PS of 2.17x is far below even those levels, reflecting either a different share-count/market-cap basis or a genuine multi-year de-rating. The stock's PB of 1.86x sits near the low end of its historical band (which ranged from ~1.49x to ~3.47x over the past several years), consistent with a market that has priced in skepticism about the streaming transition and linear-TV decline; if the Experiences-led strategy delivers, there is room for multiple expansion back toward the 2.5–3.0x PB range, but if growth stalls, the low multiple could prove justified rather than opportunistic.
PE
16.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~145x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Disney's financial risks are moderate but notable. The current ratio of 0.710 indicates that current liabilities exceed current assets, which, while typical for a media company with large deferred revenue balances, leaves limited near-term liquidity cushion. Free cash flow is volatile, swinging from +$4.941B in Q2 2026 to -$2.278B in Q1 2026 due to $3.013B capex and a $5.084B working-capital swing, meaning the company has limited buffer if FCF turns negative again. Additionally, revenue growth is modest at 6.55% YoY, and the trailing EPS of $0.06 is distorted by one-time items, making earnings quality a concern. The debt-to-equity of 0.413 is conservative, but the company's heavy investment in parks and content requires sustained cash generation.
Market and competitive risks are significant. Disney's beta of 1.409 means it is roughly 41% more volatile than the S&P 500, so a 10% market decline could translate to a ~14% drop in DIS. The stock trades at a forward PE of 14.27x, which is below the broader market but reflects skepticism about its growth prospects; if streaming competition intensifies, as suggested by recent news about Apple TV+ pricing backlash and industry consolidation (Fox-Roku, Comcast/NBCUniversal spinoff), multiple compression could occur. Regulatory headwinds, such as potential antitrust scrutiny of Disney's market power, also pose a threat. The wide analyst target range ($88-$160) highlights the uncertainty, and the stock's history of failing to hold above $100 suggests that sentiment can quickly reverse.
The worst-case scenario would involve a combination of factors: a recession that dampens theme park attendance and advertising revenue, increased streaming competition eroding subscriber growth, and execution missteps under new CEO D'Amaro. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $92.19, representing a 13.5% decline from the current price of $106.55. If the bear case fully materializes, the analyst low target of $88 implies a 17.4% downside. Given the max drawdown of -22.24%, a more severe sell-off could push the stock toward $82-$85, a loss of 20-23% from current levels. Investors should be prepared for significant volatility given the beta of 1.409 and the stock's tendency to whipsaw around the $100 psychological level.
FAQ
The key risks for DIS, ranked by severity, are: (1) Financial risk: current ratio of 0.710 indicates tight liquidity, and free cash flow is volatile, swinging from +$4.941B to -$2.278B in recent quarters. (2) Competitive risk: intensifying streaming competition from Apple TV+, Netflix, and industry consolidation (Fox-Roku, Comcast/NBCUniversal spinoff) could pressure subscriber growth and pricing. (3) Macro risk: beta of 1.409 means a 10% market decline could lead to a ~14% drop in DIS, and a recession would hurt theme park attendance and advertising revenue. (4) Company-specific risk: execution risk around the leadership transition to CEO Josh D'Amaro and the strategic pivot to Experiences. The wide analyst target range ($88-$160) underscores the uncertainty.
The 12-month forecast for DIS includes three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) targets $128-$160, assuming successful execution of the Experiences pivot, accelerating revenue growth, and multiple expansion. Base case (55% probability) targets $110-$128, assuming steady 5-7% revenue growth, stable margins, and gradual re-rating. Bear case (20% probability) targets $88-$92, assuming a recession, intensifying competition, and execution missteps. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that revenue growth remains in the 5-7% range and the company continues to return capital to shareholders. The analyst consensus target of $128.18 aligns with the upper end of the base case.
DIS appears undervalued relative to its history and peers. The forward PE of 14.27x is well below the trailing PE of 16.49x and a fraction of the 38.86x seen in Q4 2025. The PS ratio of 2.17x and PB ratio of 1.86x are near multi-year lows, while the PEG ratio of 0.108 suggests the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate. Compared to the broader market, DIS trades at a discount despite its strong brand and stable cash flows. The market is pricing in low-single-digit revenue growth (6.55% YoY) and skepticism about the streaming transition, but if the Experiences pivot delivers, multiple expansion toward 2.5-3.0x PB could drive significant upside. The analyst average target of $128.18 implies the market expects a re-rating.
DIS appears to be a good buy for long-term investors with a moderate risk tolerance, given its forward PE of 14.27x, strong analyst consensus (strong_buy, average target $128.18 implying +20.3% upside), and stable profitability (36.82% gross margin, 13.14% net margin). The stock is down 8.99% over the past year and trades 49% below its all-time high, suggesting the market has priced in significant skepticism. However, the biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low of $92.19, which would represent a 13.5% loss from current levels. For investors willing to hold through volatility (beta 1.409) and believe in the Experiences-led pivot under new CEO D'Amaro, the risk/reward is favorable. It is less suitable for short-term traders due to the stock's history of failing to hold above $100.
DIS is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 2-3 years) than short-term trading. The company is in a multi-year turnaround, with the Experiences pivot under new CEO D'Amaro expected to play out over several years. The stock's beta of 1.409 and max drawdown of -22.24% indicate high volatility, making short-term trading risky. The dividend yield of 0.88% and payout ratio of 14.54% provide modest income, but the primary return driver is capital appreciation from multiple expansion and earnings growth. Short-term traders might find opportunities around earnings or news events, but the stock's history of whipsawing around $100 makes timing difficult. A long-term holding period allows investors to benefit from the franchise strength and strategic initiatives.
