Equitable Holdings
EQH
$47.65
-2.52%
Equitable Holdings, Inc. is a financial services company providing retirement, asset management, and wealth management solutions for individual and institutional clients, operating through three segments: Retirement, Asset Management, and Wealth Management. As a diversified insurance and asset management firm, it distinguishes itself through its strong presence in annuities and retirement savings, alongside its ownership of AllianceBernstein (AB) for global asset management. The current investor narrative centers on the company's earnings recovery after a volatile 2025, driven by improved market conditions and a significant share buyback program that signals management confidence. Recent analyst upgrades and a strong buy consensus reflect optimism around margin expansion and capital return potential.…
EQH
Equitable Holdings
$47.65
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy EQH Today?
Rating: Buy. EQH is a compelling value play with a forward P/E of 5.38, a 55-64% discount to the industry average, and strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target $60.82, 26.7% upside). The core thesis is that the earnings recovery is sustainable, driven by improved margins and revenue growth. Supporting evidence includes: (1) Q1 2026 revenue grew 8.35% YoY to $4.23 billion; (2) gross margin improved to 90.7% from 30.4% a year ago; (3) operating margin turned positive at 20.97%; (4) free cash flow of $490 million in Q1 2026 versus negative FCF in Q4 2025. The PEG ratio of 0.04 underscores deep undervaluation relative to growth. Risks that could invalidate the thesis: (1) a return to losses would break the valuation narrative; (2) negative book value could trigger a credit downgrade; (3) macro headwinds could pressure fee income. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if forward P/E expands above 8x or if revenue growth decelerates below 5%. Upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock breaks above $55.24 (52-week high) with sustained margin improvement. Overall, EQH appears undervalued relative to its history and peers, offering a favorable risk/reward for value-oriented investors.
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EQH 12-Month Price Forecast
EQH offers a deep value opportunity with a forward P/E of 5.38, a significant discount to peers, and a clear earnings recovery trajectory. The Q1 2026 results demonstrate operational improvement, with revenue up 8.35% and margins turning positive. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 11 Strong Buy ratings and an average target implying 26.7% upside. However, the negative book value and volatile earnings history warrant caution. The base case of gradual recovery to $60.82 is most likely, but the bull case of $68.00 is achievable if margins sustain. The bear case of a drop to $35.20 is a real risk if earnings falter. Overall, the risk/reward is favorable for value investors, but confidence is medium due to the company's financial complexity.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equitable Holdings's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $60.82 and implied upside of +27.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$60.82
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+27.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$50 - $68
Analyst target range
EQH is covered by 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating 1.33 on a 1-5 scale). The average price target is $60.82, implying 26.7% upside from the current price of $48.00. The distribution leans heavily bullish, with no hold or sell ratings among the recent institutional ratings from firms like Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Evercore ISI, Jefferies, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Barclays, all maintaining Outperform or Buy ratings. The target range spans from $50.00 (low) to $68.00 (high), representing a spread of $18.00 or 37.5% of the current price. The high target of $68.00 assumes continued earnings recovery, potential multiple expansion, and successful execution of share buybacks, while the low target of $50.00 reflects risks such as market volatility, regulatory changes, or margin compression. The wide spread indicates moderate uncertainty, but the consistent upgrades and strong buy consensus suggest analysts have high conviction in the stock's near-term prospects. Recent actions from UBS (Buy, June 11) and Mizuho (Outperform, May 7) reinforce the positive sentiment.
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Bulls vs Bears: EQH Investment Factors
EQH presents a compelling value opportunity with a forward P/E of 5.38, a 55-64% discount to industry peers, and strong analyst support with 26.7% upside to the average target. The earnings recovery is real—Q1 2026 net income of $621 million and operating margin of 20.97% show a sharp turnaround from 2025 losses. However, the negative book value, volatile earnings history, and 1-year underperformance (-7.80% vs S&P +16.47%) introduce significant risk. The single most important tension is whether the earnings recovery is sustainable: if EQH can maintain margins above 20% and grow revenue consistently, the low P/E will expand, driving substantial upside. If earnings falter again, the stock could re-test its 52-week low of $35.20. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the Q1 results and analyst upgrades, but the bear risks cannot be dismissed.
Bullish
- Strong Earnings Recovery: Q1 2026 net income of $621 million and EPS of $2.16 swung from a net loss of $1.31 billion in Q3 2025, demonstrating a sharp turnaround. Operating margin improved to 20.97% from negative levels, indicating strong operational leverage.
- Compelling Valuation Discount: Forward P/E of 5.38 is a 55-64% discount to the industry average of 12-15x. The PEG ratio of 0.04 suggests the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: 11 analysts rate EQH a Strong Buy with a mean rating of 1.33. The average price target of $60.82 implies 26.7% upside, and the high target of $68.00 offers 41.7% potential return.
- Aggressive Share Buybacks: The company announced substantial share repurchases, signaling management confidence. With 281.3 million shares outstanding, buybacks provide an EPS tailwind and support the stock price.
Bearish
- Negative Book Value Risk: Debt-to-equity of -88.68 and a negative book value complicate financial analysis. The PB ratio of -191.95 indicates the company's liabilities exceed assets, raising solvency concerns despite insurance accounting norms.
- Earnings Volatility History: Trailing P/E of -9.87 reflects prior losses, and EPS swung from -$4.47 in Q3 2025 to $2.16 in Q1 2026. Such volatility makes it difficult to rely on forward estimates and could deter risk-averse investors.
- Liquidity Concerns: Current ratio of 0.57 suggests potential short-term liquidity risk. While typical for insurers with long-duration liabilities, it limits financial flexibility and could be a red flag in stress scenarios.
- Underperformance vs Market: EQH's 1-year price change of -7.80% significantly underperforms the S&P 500's +16.47% gain. The stock is still 13.1% below its 52-week high of $55.24, indicating incomplete recovery.
EQH Technical Analysis
EQH is in a recovery uptrend from its 52-week low of $35.20, currently trading at $48.00, which is 86.9% of its 52-week range ($35.20-$55.24). The stock has gained 5.17% over the past six months and 10.83% in the last month, indicating strong near-term momentum. However, the 1-year price change is -7.80%, showing that the stock has not fully recovered from its 2025 downturn, and the current price remains below the 52-week high of $55.24. The 3-month change of +16.79% significantly outperforms the S&P 500's 3.5% gain, suggesting a strong relative strength of 13.29% over that period. The 1-month relative strength of 10.05% confirms accelerating momentum, as the stock has outpaced the market by a wide margin recently. The 52-week low of $35.20 provides solid support, while the 52-week high of $55.24 acts as key resistance. A breakout above $55.24 would signal a full recovery and potential new highs, while a breakdown below $35.20 would indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 1.094, EQH is slightly more volatile than the market, meaning it tends to amplify market moves by about 9.4%, which is moderate for an insurance stock.
Beta
1.09
1.09x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$35-$55
Price range past year
Annual Return
-7.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EQH Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.2% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +13.0% | +3.7% |
| 6m | +2.7% | +8.0% |
| 1y | -7.2% | +18.2% |
| ytd | -0.7% | +9.6% |
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EQH Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown a strong recovery, with Q1 2026 revenue of $4.23 billion, up 8.35% year-over-year from $3.90 billion in Q1 2025. This follows a volatile 2025 where revenue ranged from $1.45 billion (Q3) to $3.90 billion (Q1), driven by market fluctuations and variable investment income. The Retirement segment, which generates the majority of revenue, benefits from higher fee income and spread lending, while the Asset Management segment (AB) adds diversification. The company swung to profitability in Q1 2026 with net income of $621 million and EPS of $2.16, compared to a net loss of $1.31 billion in Q3 2025. Gross margin improved to 90.7% in Q1 2026 from 30.4% in Q2 2025, reflecting a shift to higher-margin fee-based revenue. Operating margin turned positive at 20.97% in Q1 2026, versus negative margins in the prior two quarters, indicating strong operational leverage. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of -88.68 (negative equity due to accounting), but free cash flow was $490 million in Q1 2026, up from negative $64 million in Q4 2025. ROE stands at 18.65%, reflecting solid profitability on equity, though the negative book value complicates traditional leverage analysis. The current ratio of 0.57 suggests liquidity risk, but as an insurance company, this is typical given the long-duration liabilities.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
90.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$807000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EQH Overvalued?
Since net income is positive (TTM net income of $621 million in Q1 2026), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is -9.87 (negative due to prior losses), but the forward P/E is 5.38, based on estimated EPS of $11.79. The gap between trailing and forward P/E implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, which is already materializing. Compared to the industry average (Insurance - Diversified), EQH's forward P/E of 5.38 is a significant discount; the industry average P/E is approximately 12-15x, suggesting a 55-64% discount. This discount may be justified by the company's volatile earnings history and negative book value, but the low multiple also reflects potential undervaluation if earnings stabilize. Historically, EQH's trailing P/E has ranged from 2.34 (Q3 2023) to 81.39 (Q1 2025), with a median around 8-10x. The current forward P/E of 5.38 is near the low end of its historical range, indicating the market is pricing in cautious expectations despite the recent earnings improvement. The P/S ratio of 1.22 is also below the historical average of ~3-4x, further supporting a value-oriented assessment.
PE
-9.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-85.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: EQH's negative book value (debt-to-equity of -88.68) and negative trailing P/E (-9.87) highlight a fragile balance sheet and volatile earnings history. The company swung from a net loss of $1.31 billion in Q3 2025 to a profit of $621 million in Q1 2026, demonstrating low earnings visibility. The current ratio of 0.57 indicates potential liquidity constraints, though this is partly mitigated by the insurance business model. Free cash flow turned positive at $490 million in Q1 2026, but the prior quarter showed negative FCF of -$64 million, underscoring cash flow inconsistency. Market & Competitive Risks: EQH's forward P/E of 5.38 is a deep discount to the industry average of 12-15x, which could reflect market skepticism about earnings sustainability. The stock's beta of 1.094 means it amplifies market moves, and its 1-year underperformance (-7.80% vs S&P +16.47%) suggests it is out of favor. Competitive pressures from larger asset managers and insurers could compress margins, while regulatory changes in retirement products pose a headwind. The recent buyback announcement signals confidence, but if earnings disappoint, the stock could face further multiple compression. Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of market downturn, rising claims, or regulatory changes could reverse the earnings recovery. If EQH reports a loss in a future quarter, the forward P/E would become meaningless, and the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $35.20, representing a 26.7% decline from the current price of $48.00. In a severe scenario, the stock could approach the analyst low target of $50.00, but given the negative book value, a drop below $35.20 is possible, implying a potential loss of up to 35% from current levels.
FAQ
The primary risks are: (1) Financial risk: negative book value (debt-to-equity of -88.68) and a current ratio of 0.57 raise solvency and liquidity concerns, though typical for insurers. (2) Earnings volatility: trailing P/E of -9.87 and a history of large losses (e.g., -$1.31 billion in Q3 2025) make earnings unpredictable. (3) Market risk: with a beta of 1.094, the stock is moderately more volatile than the market, and its 1-year underperformance (-7.80% vs S&P +16.47%) shows it can lag. (4) Company-specific: reliance on fee income and investment returns makes it sensitive to market conditions. The most severe risk is a return to losses, which could send the stock to its 52-week low of $35.20.
The 12-month forecast is positive, with a base case target of $55-61 (50% probability) based on continued gradual recovery. The bull case targets $60-68 (30% probability) if margins sustain and the market re-rates the stock. The bear case sees a decline to $35-50 (20% probability) if earnings disappoint. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth of 5-7% and stable margins. Analysts are bullish, with an average target of $60.82 and a high of $68.00. Key assumptions include sustained operating margins above 15% and no major macro shocks.
EQH is undervalued relative to its peers and its own history. The forward P/E of 5.38 is well below the industry average of 12-15x and near the low end of its historical range (median ~8-10x). The PEG ratio of 0.04 suggests the stock is deeply undervalued given its earnings growth potential. The P/S ratio of 1.22 is also below the historical average of 3-4x. The market is pricing in cautious expectations due to the negative book value and prior losses, but if the earnings recovery persists, the valuation multiple should expand, driving significant upside.
EQH appears to be a good buy for value investors willing to accept some volatility. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.38, a 55-64% discount to the insurance industry average of 12-15x, and analysts see 26.7% upside to the average target of $60.82. The Q1 2026 earnings recovery—net income of $621 million and operating margin of 20.97%—provides fundamental support. However, the negative book value and volatile earnings history are significant risks. For risk-tolerant investors with a 12-month horizon, the risk/reward is favorable. Conservative investors may prefer to wait for more consistent earnings or a stronger balance sheet.
EQH is better suited for a medium-term investment horizon of 12-24 months, given its earnings recovery phase and valuation discount. The stock's beta of 1.094 indicates moderate volatility, making it less ideal for short-term trading. The dividend yield of 2.64% provides some income, but the payout ratio is negative due to prior losses, so dividend growth is uncertain. For long-term investors, the negative book value and earnings volatility are concerns, but if the company can stabilize its balance sheet and grow earnings consistently, it could become a core holding. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the recovery thesis to play out.
