Expedia Group
EXPE
$265.63
-1.92%
Expedia Group is the world's second-largest online travel agency by bookings, offering services for lodging, air tickets, rental cars, cruises, and advertising revenue through brands like Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. As a dominant platform in the travel services industry, it competes directly with Booking Holdings and leverages its extensive brand portfolio to capture a broad customer base. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a dynamic economic environment, with recent CFO commentary flagging cautious margin expectations for 2026, while AI disruption fears have weighed on sentiment despite strong underlying performance.…
EXPE
Expedia Group
$265.63
Related headlines
EXPE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expedia Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $345.32 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$345.32
9 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
9
covering this stock
Price Range
$213 - $345
Analyst target range
Expedia is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning neutral to bullish. The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $34.27, with a range of $33.21 to $35.84. The average revenue estimate is $20.53 billion, implying a forward P/E of 11.72x based on the current price. While specific target prices are not provided, the EPS estimates imply a forward P/E of 7.9x at the high end and 8.2x at the low end, suggesting significant upside if those estimates are achieved. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly stated, but recent ratings include 2 Buys (BTIG, Benchmark) and 7 Hold/Neutral ratings (Morgan Stanley, Mizuho, Citizens, BMO, Wedbush, Wells Fargo, Piper Sandler), indicating a cautious bullish tilt. The wide range of EPS estimates ($33.21–$35.84) reflects moderate uncertainty about the company's earnings trajectory. The high estimate likely assumes margin expansion and strong travel demand, while the low estimate may price in margin compression and economic headwinds. Recent analyst actions have been largely neutral, with no upgrades or downgrades in the past three months, suggesting a wait-and-see approach. The lack of a clear consensus target price limits conviction, but the forward P/E discount to the trailing multiple implies analysts expect earnings growth to justify the current valuation.
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EXPE Technical Analysis
Expedia's 1-year price change of +48.0% reflects a sustained uptrend, with the current price of $270.83 sitting at 89% of its 52-week range ($174.05–$303.80), indicating the stock is near the upper end of its range and suggesting bullish momentum but also potential overextension. The stock has recovered sharply from its February low of $188.51, now trading 44% above that level, though it remains 11% below the 52-week high, leaving room for a test of resistance. Short-term momentum is strong: the 1-month change of +23.7% and 3-month change of +18.7% both significantly outpace the 1-year trend, signaling accelerating momentum. However, the 6-month change of -8.6% reveals a divergence—the stock was in a downtrend from January to May before the recent rally, suggesting a potential trend reversal or mean reversion from oversold conditions. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is positive over 1-month (+19.6%) and 3-month (+7.6%), confirming near-term outperformance. The 52-week high of $303.80 acts as key resistance; a breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend and could target new highs. Support lies near the 52-week low of $174.05, though the stock has already bounced sharply from that area. With a beta of 1.232, Expedia is 23% more volatile than the market, meaning larger price swings that amplify both gains and losses, which is important for risk management.
Beta
1.23
1.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$174-$304
Price range past year
Annual Return
+44.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +18.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +6.9% | +7.9% |
| 6m | -8.6% | +8.5% |
| 1y | +44.6% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -6.1% | +9.9% |
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EXPE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $3.547 billion, up 11.4% year-over-year, though this represents a deceleration from Q3 2025's $4.412 billion (which grew 8.7% YoY). The lodging segment, which accounts for 80% of sales, generated $2.819 billion in Q4, while air contributed $94 million. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growing from $2.889 billion in Q1 2024 to $3.547 billion in Q4 2025, but with seasonal fluctuations and a slight slowdown in the most recent quarter, implying the growth trajectory is moderating. Net income for Q4 2025 was $205 million, with a net margin of 5.8%, down from 9.4% in Q4 2024, indicating margin compression. Gross margin remains high at 84.0% in Q4 2025, but operating margin fell to 12.7% from 16.9% in Q3 2025, reflecting rising costs. The company is profitable, but margins are under pressure due to higher selling and marketing expenses ($1.696 billion in Q4 vs. $1.749 billion in Q4 2024) and R&D costs. Expedia's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19, indicating significant leverage, and a current ratio of 0.73, suggesting potential liquidity risk. However, free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $3.695 billion, providing ample cash generation. ROE is extremely high at 100.8%, but this is inflated by high leverage. The company has $6.976 billion in cash at the end of Q4 2025, which helps cover its debt obligations, but the high debt load (debt-to-equity >5) is a concern for financial flexibility.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.5B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
84.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPE Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 27.45x, while the forward P/E is 11.72x, a significant discount that implies the market expects earnings to grow substantially in the coming year. This gap suggests optimistic growth expectations are priced in. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically for travel services, P/E ratios average around 20-25x), Expedia's trailing P/E of 27.45x appears at a premium, but the forward P/E of 11.72x is a discount, indicating the market anticipates a sharp earnings recovery. The PEG ratio of 2.77 suggests the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis. Historically, Expedia's trailing P/E has ranged from below 10x to over 40x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 27.45x is above the median of the historical range (approximately 20x), indicating the stock is trading at a premium to its own history. This suggests the market is pricing in above-average growth expectations, which could be vulnerable to disappointment if earnings fail to materialize.
PE
27.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -63x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
