Fastenal
FAST
$46.49
+0.30%
Fastenal is an industrial distributor that provides a wide range of maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, including fasteners, cutting tools, safety equipment, and janitorial products. The company has evolved from a traditional retailer into a one-stop outsourcing partner for industrial customers, leveraging a dense network of branches and on-site locations (including vending machines and dedicated personnel) to drive customer loyalty and recurring revenue. As a market leader in industrial distribution, Fastenal is currently attracting investor attention for its consistent revenue growth, strong margin profile, and strategic shift toward higher-value on-site solutions, which are expected to support long-term earnings expansion despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.…
FAST
Fastenal
$46.49
Related headlines
FAST 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fastenal's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $60.44 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$60.44
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$37 - $60
Analyst target range
Fastenal is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution includes 1 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell (or equivalent ratings based on actions: Baird rates Outperform, Barclays Equal Weight, Jefferies Buy, Wolfe Research Underperform, JP Morgan Neutral). The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $1.55 and a forward P/E of 33.8x, the implied target is approximately $52.39, suggesting about 12.7% upside from the current price of $46.49. The consensus recommendation is a cautious Hold, reflecting mixed views on the stock's valuation and growth prospects. The target range spans from a low of $44.00 (implied by Wolfe Research's Underperform) to a high of $56.00 (implied by Jefferies' Buy). The high target assumes continued margin expansion and successful on-site growth, while the low target factors in potential margin compression or a slowdown in industrial demand. Recent rating actions show a mix: Baird upgraded from Neutral to Outperform in August 2025, while Wolfe Research downgraded from Peer Perform to Underperform in November 2025, indicating divergent views. The wide spread between high and low targets (27% difference) signals high uncertainty about Fastenal's future performance, which is typical for a stock trading at elevated multiples.
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FAST Technical Analysis
Fastenal is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 6.7% over the past year, though it has underperformed the S&P 500's 20.6% gain. The current price of $46.49 sits at 91.8% of its 52-week range ($38.97–$50.63), indicating the stock is near the upper end of its range and reflecting positive momentum but also potential overextension. The 52-week low of $38.97 provides a clear support level, while the high of $50.63 represents a key resistance zone. Short-term momentum shows conflicting signals: the 1-month price change is +0.99%, while the 3-month change is -5.45%, suggesting a recent pullback from a peak in early April. This divergence from the longer-term uptrend could indicate a temporary consolidation phase or a potential trend reversal if selling pressure persists. The beta of 0.713 implies the stock is less volatile than the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also limits upside during strong market rallies. The 52-week low at $38.97 serves as a critical support level; a breakdown below that would signal a bearish reversal, while a breakout above $50.63 would confirm renewed bullish momentum. The stock's lower beta suggests it may offer a smoother ride compared to the broader market, but also means it could lag during aggressive risk-on periods.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$51
Price range past year
Annual Return
+6.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FAST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.0% | +1.8% |
| 3m | -5.5% | +10.0% |
| 6m | +10.7% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +6.7% | +21.1% |
| ytd | +15.0% | +10.7% |
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FAST Fundamental Analysis
Fastenal's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2,027 million growing 11.1% year-over-year, accelerating from the 4.5% growth seen in Q4 2024. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $8,200 million, with sequential quarterly growth from $1,954 million in Q1 2025 to $2,133 million in Q3 2025, indicating a healthy demand environment. The company's gross margin of 44.3% in Q4 2025 is slightly below the 45.1% in Q1 2025, but remains stable and typical for the industrial distribution industry. Net income for Q4 2025 was $294 million, up from $262 million in the prior-year quarter, with a net margin of 14.5% that has been consistently above 14% over the past year. Operating margin came in at 19.0% in Q4 2025, slightly below the 20.6% in Q3 2025, but still reflecting strong operational efficiency. Fastenal's balance sheet is exceptionally healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.112 and a current ratio of 4.85, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $1,051 million, providing a free cash flow yield of approximately 2.3% based on the current market cap. The company's return on equity (ROE) of 31.9% is outstanding, reflecting efficient capital allocation and strong profitability. With minimal debt and robust cash generation, Fastenal is well-positioned to fund its growth initiatives internally and continue its dividend payments.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.12%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.33%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is FAST Overvalued?
Given Fastenal's positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 36.5x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 33.8x implies a slight compression, suggesting the market expects earnings growth to moderate or that the current price already reflects some future growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E indicates a modest 7.4% expected earnings growth over the next year. Compared to the industrial distribution industry, Fastenal trades at a significant premium; the industry average P/E is approximately 22x, making Fastenal's 36.5x a 66% premium. This premium is partially justified by Fastenal's superior profitability (net margin of 15.3% vs. industry average of ~8%) and higher ROE (31.9% vs. industry average of ~15%), but it also reflects the market's high expectations for continued growth. Historically, Fastenal's trailing P/E has ranged from 23x to 40x over the past five years. The current 36.5x is near the upper end of that range, indicating that the stock is priced for optimistic scenarios. If growth disappoints, the multiple could contract, leading to downside risk. The P/S ratio of 5.6x is also elevated relative to the industry average of 1.5x, further underscoring the premium valuation.
PE
36.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 23x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

