MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
MTDR
$51.38
-2.69%
Matador Resources Company is an independent energy firm focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, primarily in U.S. shale plays, with an additional midstream segment. As a mid-cap E&P operator, it distinguishes itself through a balanced portfolio of upstream assets and midstream infrastructure that supports its core drilling activities. The current investor narrative centers on the impact of volatile crude oil prices—recent geopolitical tensions and a subsequent sharp decline in oil prices have pressured the stock, while the company's operational efficiency and free cash flow generation remain key debates.…
MTDR
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$51.38
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MTDR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.79 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.79
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$41 - $67
Analyst target range
Only 2 analysts cover MTDR, which is limited coverage for a mid-cap stock. The consensus recommendation leans bullish, with recent actions including Buy ratings from Citigroup, TD Cowen, and BMO Capital, while Truist Securities downgraded to Hold. The average EPS estimate is $9.52, with a range of $8.55 to $10.44, and average revenue estimate of $4.61 billion. No explicit price targets are provided, but the EPS estimates imply a forward PE of 5.3x at the current price, suggesting potential upside if earnings materialize. The limited coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, offering opportunities for active investors but also higher volatility. The wide EPS range ($8.55–$10.44) indicates significant uncertainty about future earnings, likely tied to oil price assumptions. The recent downgrade by Truist and Wells Fargo's move to Equal Weight suggest some caution, but the majority of ratings remain positive.
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MTDR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -0.93%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +19.1% gain. Currently trading at $50.18, it sits at 75% of its 52-week range ($37.14–$66.84), suggesting it has pulled back from highs but remains above the low—indicating a potential value zone if the downtrend reverses. The 1-month change of -10.39% and 3-month change of -20.22% show accelerating short-term weakness, diverging from the 6-month gain of +15.73%. This divergence implies the stock enjoyed a strong rally earlier in the year but has since reversed sharply, possibly due to deteriorating oil price fundamentals or profit-taking. The RSI is not provided, but the rapid decline suggests oversold conditions may be emerging. The 52-week low of $37.14 provides key support, while the high of $66.84 is a major resistance level. A break below $37.14 would signal a new downtrend, while a move above $66.84 would indicate a resumption of the prior uptrend. With a beta of 0.74, the stock is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to decline less than the S&P 500 during broad selloffs, which may offer some downside protection.
Beta
0.74
0.74x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$37-$67
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTDR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -4.4% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -14.2% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +21.6% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +0.1% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +18.5% | +10.2% |
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MTDR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been declining, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $848 million, down 13.3% year-over-year from $978 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue peaked at $1.006 billion in Q1 2025 and has since fallen, reflecting lower oil and gas prices. The midstream segment contributed $45.4 million in revenue, providing some diversification, but the core E&P business drives overall results. Net income in Q4 2025 was $192.5 million, with a net margin of 22.7%, down from 30.6% in Q4 2024, indicating margin compression. Gross margin stood at 43.7% (trailing twelve months), which is healthy for an E&P company but has declined from 47.2% in Q4 2023. Operating margin of 32.5% is solid but has contracted from 36.8% a year earlier. The company remains profitable, but margins are under pressure from lower commodity prices. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 and a current ratio of 0.79, indicating some liquidity risk. Free cash flow (TTM) was $241.6 million, but Q4 2025 saw negative free cash flow of -$113.6 million due to high capital expenditures. ROE of 13.4% is respectable, but the reliance on external financing for capex is a concern if cash flows weaken further.
Quarterly Revenue
$847992000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-13.32%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
258.42%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$241644000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTDR Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 6.96x, while the forward PE is 5.72x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests analysts anticipate higher earnings in the coming year, which is consistent with consensus EPS estimates of $9.52 for the next fiscal year. Compared to the industry average PE (not provided, but typically for E&P around 8-12x), MTDR's trailing PE of 6.96x appears discounted, potentially reflecting the recent revenue decline and margin compression. The PS ratio of 1.45x is low relative to historical levels, indicating the market is pricing in lower future revenues. Historically, the trailing PE has ranged from about 3.3x (mid-2022) to 11.3x (early 2021). The current 6.96x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount to its own historical valuation. This could imply either a value opportunity or that the market is correctly pricing in fundamental deterioration.
PE
7.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~11x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
