Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
RGTI
$11.52
+0.35%
Rigetti Computing builds superconducting quantum computers and the cryogenic quantum processors that power them, selling 9-qubit to 108-qubit systems under the Novera and Cepheus brands and delivering access through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, which can be integrated into public, private, or hybrid clouds. The company is a vertically integrated, full-stack quantum pure-play — one of only a handful of publicly traded names offering both hardware and cloud access — but it remains a pre-commercial-scale vendor with just 164 employees and quarterly revenue in the single-digit millions, positioning it as a speculative, government- and capital-markets-dependent challenger rather than a proven platform. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between strategic validation and commercial reality: a roughly $100 million CHIPS Act award announced in September 2026 was widely framed as confirming quantum computing's national-security importance and briefly lifted the stock, yet coverage continues to emphasize that Rigetti has no meaningful revenue ramp and faces a widely discussed '2028 cash test' requiring external funding to survive to commercialization. Sentiment has been further pressured by reports of roughly $857 million in insider selling across leading quantum names with virtually no insider buying, and by the stock's brutal 75% one-year decline, which has turned the debate into one of dilution risk and milestone execution versus long-term optionality on a technology that could reshape computing.…
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock
$11.52
Related headlines
RGTI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $28.52 and implied upside of +147.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$28.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+147.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $40
Analyst target range
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Bulls vs Bears: RGTI Investment Factors
The bear case currently carries stronger evidence: a 968x P/S multiple, -$87.6 million TTM free cash flow, a 75% one-year decline, and $857 million of insider selling are concrete, quantifiable negatives, while the bull case rests largely on a $100 million grant and optionality on a technology that may not commercialize before 2028. The bull side does have real support — 185% YoY revenue growth, a 37.4 current ratio, and analyst targets 142% above the current price — but these are outweighed by the absence of a path to profitability and the dilution overhang. The single most important tension is the 2028 cash test: whether the CHIPS award plus existing liquidity funds Rigetti to commercial scale, or whether investors face significant equity dilution before revenue inflects. Resolution of that funding question — not quarterly revenue noise — will determine the stock's trajectory.
Bullish
- $100M CHIPS Act award validates strategy: The roughly $100 million CHIPS Act award announced in September 2026 provides non-dilutive government capital and confirms quantum computing's national-security priority. This is meaningful for a company with only $5.1 million in quarterly revenue, effectively underwriting multiple years of R&D at current spending levels.
- Fortress balance sheet, minimal debt: Current ratio of 37.4 and debt-to-equity of just 0.013 mean Rigetti has essentially no leverage and ample liquidity relative to near-term obligations. Interest income of $5.06 million in Q2 2026 actually exceeded gross profit of $2.19 million, cushioning cash burn.
- Analyst targets imply large upside: The 12-analyst average target of $28.53 sits 142% above the $11.80 current price, with a high target of $40.00 and even the low target of $17.30 implying ~47% upside. This suggests sell-side coverage sees the 75% one-year decline as overdone relative to strategic progress.
- Revenue growth inflecting off low base: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.14 million grew 185% year-over-year versus $1.80 million in Q2 2025, and gross margin recovered to 42.6% from negative territory in Q1 2026 (-28.1%) and Q4 2025 (-92.1%). Sequential improvement in both top line and gross profitability is a genuine operational positive.
Bearish
- Extreme valuation with no earnings support: Price-to-sales of 968x and EV/sales of 286.8x are detached from any reasonable fundamental anchor, while trailing PE of -31.6 and forward PE of -57.3 confirm there are no earnings to value. Even the PEG ratio of 0.88 is meaningless given negative EPS estimates averaging -$0.15.
- Cash burn and 2028 funding cliff: TTM free cash flow is -$87.6 million against quarterly revenue of just $5.1 million, and Q2 2026 net loss was $52.6 million. Widely discussed coverage flags a '2028 cash test' requiring external funding to reach commercialization, making dilution a live risk despite the strong current ratio.
- Insider selling red flag: Reports of roughly $857 million in insider selling across leading quantum names with virtually no insider buying — including Rigetti — signal that those closest to the business are not accumulating at current levels. This is a significant negative signal for a story stock dependent on sentiment.
- Severe underperformance and volatility: The stock is down 75.4% over one year and 50.0% YTD, with relative strength versus the S&P 500 of -90.9% over 12 months and a max drawdown of -79.3%. Beta of 2.03 means it amplifies market moves, and it has fallen 20.2% in just the last month while the S&P rose 1.2%.
RGTI Technical Analysis
Beta
2.03
2.03x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-79.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$11-$45
Price range past year
Annual Return
-70.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RGTI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -28.0% | -1.0% |
| 3m | -18.6% | +2.9% |
| 6m | -30.6% | +6.5% |
| 1y | -70.9% | +13.1% |
| ytd | -51.2% | +11.4% |
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RGTI Fundamental Analysis
Quarterly Revenue
$5138000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+185.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-87582000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RGTI Overvalued?
PE
-31.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-32.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are acute. Rigetti generated just $5.14 million in Q2 2026 revenue against a $52.6 million net loss and -$87.6 million in TTM free cash flow, meaning it burns roughly 17x its quarterly revenue. Gross margin is highly unstable, swinging from -92.1% in Q4 2025 to 42.6% in Q2 2026, and Q1 2026 gross profit was negative at -$1.24 million. With only 164 employees and revenue concentrated in a handful of government and research contracts across the U.S. and U.K., a single delayed system delivery or contract loss could materially disrupt the top line. The strong current ratio of 37.4 and debt-to-equity of 0.013 provide a buffer, but they reflect capital raises rather than operating cash generation.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression. At 968x sales and 286.8x EV/sales, Rigetti trades at a massive premium to any hardware peer, and with a beta of 2.03 it amplifies both market drawdowns and sector rotation out of speculative technology. Competition is intensifying: IonQ, D-Wave, and GlobalFoundries all received government awards, and the September 2026 coverage noted D-Wave's $100 million grant was not a unique advantage because rivals received equal or larger awards. The stock's -90.9% relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 12 months and -20.2% one-month decline while the S&P rose 1.2% illustrate how quickly sentiment can drain from pre-revenue quantum names. Insider selling of $857 million across the sector with virtually no buying adds a governance-adjacent overhang.
In a worst-case scenario, Rigetti fails to convert government awards into commercial contracts, the 2028 cash test forces a large equity raise at depressed prices, and a broader risk-off rotation compresses quantum multiples further. The 52-week low of $11.11 is only 5.8% below the current $11.80, meaning the stock is already trading near its worst level of the year, and the -79.3% max drawdown shows how far it can fall from prior highs. A retest of the 52-week low implies roughly -6% from here, but a break below it toward the analyst low target of $17.30 is not the downside scenario — rather, a dilutive raise at a discount could push shares 30-50% lower toward single digits, consistent with the historical drawdown pattern. Investors should size positions assuming the possibility of a further 40%+ decline if funding conditions deteriorate.