ResMed
RMD
$252.83
+1.06%
ResMed Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes respiratory care devices — flow generators, CPAP masks, and accessories for sleep apnea and other chronic respiratory conditions — alongside a growing software franchise (AirView, Brightree, MatrixCare) serving home medical equipment providers and residential care operators. It is the global duopoly leader in sleep apnea therapy alongside Philips, distinguished by a razor-and-blade model in which device placements seed recurring, high-margin mask and consumable revenue, and increasingly by its digital health data platform that links patients, clinicians, and payers. The current investor debate centers on whether ResMed can sustain double-digit mask and consumable growth against GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (feared as a long-term demand headwind for sleep apnea devices), competitive noise from Philips' re-entry into the US flow generator market, and the company's strategic pivot toward higher-growth adjacent markets — underscored by the $340 million acquisition of Noctrix Health for a first-in-class restless legs syndrome therapy and the divestiture of a non-core software asset. Sentiment has swung notably more constructive in recent months as the stock has recovered sharply from its mid-year lows, with analysts debating whether the GLP-1 overhang is overdone and whether margin expansion and capital returns justify a re-rating.…
RMD
ResMed
$252.83
Related headlines
RMD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ResMed's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $251.52 and implied upside of -0.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$251.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-0.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$175 - $320
Analyst target range
Coverage is broad, with 17 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 2.3 on a scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price of $251.52 sits essentially at the current $252.86 — implying roughly -0.5% downside, meaning the stock has already rallied to fair value in the eyes of the sell-side. That is a meaningful signal: after a 29.5% three-month run, the consensus sees limited near-term upside, and the bullish recommendation is more a statement about long-term quality than about immediate price appreciation.
The target range of $175 to $320 is wide — a spread of 83% between low and high — signaling genuine disagreement about the trajectory. The $320 high target (about 26.6% above current levels) likely assumes multiple re-expansion toward the mid-20s PE plus continued high-single-digit revenue growth and margin leverage from the mask franchise and Noctrix integration; the $175 low (about 30.8% below) prices in GLP-1-driven demand erosion, Philips share gains, and margin compression. Recent institutional actions lean constructive: RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform on September 15, 2026, and KeyBanc maintained Overweight, though Citigroup downgraded to Neutral from Buy in July and Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies remain Neutral/Hold — a split that mirrors the stock's position at consensus fair value and argues for patience rather than chasing the recent rally.
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Bulls vs Bears: RMD Investment Factors
The bull case currently carries stronger evidence: RMD trades at 18.67x earnings versus 47.1x at its 2022 peak, generates a ~10.2% FCF yield, holds a fortress balance sheet (D/E 0.125), and has posted four consecutive record revenue quarters with expanding TTM margins — all while momentum has decisively reversed (+26.64pt 3M relative strength). The bear case rests more on forward-looking uncertainty than current fundamentals: the GLP-1 demand threat, Philips' competitive re-entry, and a PEG of 2.00 that leaves little room for error. The single most important tension is whether high-single-digit mask and consumable growth can persist against GLP-1 adoption — if it does, the ~60% valuation de-rating looks unjustified and a re-rating toward the mid-20s PE (the $320 high target) is plausible; if GLP-1 erosion materializes, the $175 low target becomes the anchor. With the average target at $251.52 essentially equal to the current price, the market has already priced in the resolution of this debate, making incremental data — not narrative — the next catalyst.
Bullish
- Valuation de-rated ~60% from peak: RMD trades at 18.67x trailing and 19.08x forward earnings versus a PE of 47.1x in Q1 FY2022 and 28.75x as recently as Q1 FY2026. Price-to-sales has collapsed from over 42x in late 2021 to 4.99x today, placing the stock near the bottom of its own multi-year valuation band despite unchanged duopoly economics.
- Fortress balance sheet and 10% FCF yield: Debt-to-equity is just 0.125 and the current ratio is 3.10, while trailing free cash flow of $2.89 billion against a ~$28.2 billion market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 10.2%. The company repurchased $700 million of stock and paid $349.7 million in dividends in FY2026 while still growing cash to $1.469 billion.
- Margin expansion with 61% gross margin: TTM gross margin is 61.06% and operating margin 33.76%, with Q4 FY2026 net margin at 26.2% and net income rising from $348.5 million in Q1 to $383.4 million in Q4. Diluted EPS climbed from $2.37 to $2.64 across those four quarters, showing operating leverage on high-single-digit revenue growth.
- Momentum reversal with +26.6pt 3M relative strength: The stock is up 29.49% over three months and 13.75% in the past month versus a -1.02% S&P 500 decline, producing relative strength of +26.64 and +14.77 points respectively. This is a genuine trend reversal from the -17.80 point one-year relative underperformance, not a single-month blip.
Bearish
- Analyst consensus implies zero upside: The average target price of $251.52 sits essentially at the current $252.86, implying roughly -0.5% downside after a 29.5% three-month rally. The 'buy' consensus (mean rating 2.3) is a statement about long-term quality rather than near-term price appreciation, and several houses (Citigroup, Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, Jefferies) sit at Neutral/Hold.
- GLP-1 overhang threatens core demand: The bear case hinges on GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reducing the obese population that drives sleep apnea prevalence, directly threatening the flow generator and mask annuity. The $175 analyst low target (~30.8% below current) prices in GLP-1-driven demand erosion, and the wide $175-$320 target spread (83%) signals genuine disagreement about this risk.
- PEG of 2.00 signals growth-adjusted expense: Despite the absolute PE compression, a PEG ratio of 2.00 and price-to-book of 4.28 show the stock is not statistically cheap on growth-adjusted or asset-based measures. The forward PE (19.08x) is slightly above the trailing PE (18.67x), implying consensus expects only modest earnings growth from here.
- Heavy short interest makes rally fragile: A short ratio of 10.02 days against moderate volume of ~1.01 million shares raises the possibility that part of the recent 13.75% monthly gain reflects short covering. Covering-driven rallies can amplify moves but are inherently more fragile and prone to reversal once the squeeze exhausts.
RMD Technical Analysis
ResMed is in a recovery uptrend within a broader one-year consolidation. The stock is up 29.49% over three months and 15.01% over six months, yet still down 4.67% over the trailing year — a profile consistent with a bottoming-and-rebuilding pattern rather than a sustained advance. At $252.86, the shares sit at roughly 74% of the 52-week range (low $180.27, high $277.67), meaning they have reclaimed most of the ground lost during the drawdown but have not yet challenged the highs; the maximum drawdown of -35.46% over the period underscores how violent the prior decline was, and the current position suggests momentum is rebuilding rather than overextended.
Short-term momentum is decisively positive and accelerating. The stock has gained 13.75% in the past month versus a -1.02% decline for the S&P 500, producing a relative strength of +14.77 percentage points — a sharp positive divergence from the -17.80 percentage point relative underperformance over the full year. The three-month relative strength of +26.64 points confirms this is a genuine trend reversal rather than a one-month blip, and the 1-month gain of 13.75% against the 3-month gain of 29.49% implies the pace of advance is roughly steady rather than decelerating. Volume of approximately 1.01 million shares is moderate, and the short ratio of 10.02 days (heavy short interest relative to average volume) raises the possibility that part of the recent rally reflects short covering, which can amplify moves but also makes them more fragile.
Key technical levels are well defined. Resistance sits at the 52-week high of $277.67 — roughly 9.8% above the current $252.86 — and a decisive breakout above that level would signal the market has fully digested the GLP-1 and competitive overhangs and could open a new leg higher. Support rests at the 52-week low of $180.27, about 28.7% below current levels, with intermediate support likely in the $220–$230 zone where the stock consolidated through September. With a beta of just 0.75, ResMed is roughly 25% less volatile than the market, which argues for larger position sizing tolerance but also means the recent 13.75% monthly move is unusually large for this name — a sign of genuine re-rating rather than beta-driven drift.
Beta
0.75
0.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$180-$278
Price range past year
Annual Return
-0.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RMD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.5% | +0.7% |
| 3m | +19.8% | +3.0% |
| 6m | +23.3% | +6.8% |
| 1y | -0.3% | +11.9% |
| ytd | +3.3% | +12.8% |
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RMD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is steady and modestly accelerating. Fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) revenue was $1.464 billion, up 8.58% year over year, and the sequential progression tells a consistent story: $1.336 billion in Q1, $1.423 billion in Q2, $1.431 billion in Q3, and $1.464 billion in Q4 — four consecutive quarterly records with growth in the high-single digits. Segment data shows Sleep and Respiratory contributing $1.256 billion versus $166.9 million from Residential Care Software, confirming that the core sleep franchise (devices plus the recurring mask and consumable annuity) remains the growth engine, while the smaller software business is a margin and stickiness enhancer rather than a growth driver. Consensus revenue estimates of approximately $7.06 billion for the forward period imply continued high-single-digit expansion, consistent with the structural tailwinds of rising sleep apnea diagnosis and an aging, increasingly obese population.
Profitability is robust and margins are expanding. Q4 2026 net income was $383.4 million on a 26.2% net margin, with gross margin of 58.84% and operating margin of 30.66%; notably, gross margin has climbed from 58.60% in the year-ago quarter and from 61.46% in Q1 2026, while the trailing-twelve-month gross margin of 61.06% and operating margin of 33.76% reflect the benefit of manufacturing efficiencies and a favorable mix toward high-margin masks. Net income has grown from $348.5 million in Q1 2026 to $383.4 million in Q4 2026, and diluted EPS rose from $2.37 to $2.64 over the same span. A 26.9% net margin and 33.8% operating margin are well above the medical devices industry norm, reflecting pricing power in a duopoly and the recurring nature of consumable revenue.
Balance sheet and cash generation are fortress-like. Debt-to-equity is just 0.125, the current ratio is a very comfortable 3.10, and return on equity is 23.1% with return on assets of 14.0%. Trailing free cash flow is $2.89 billion against a market cap of roughly $28.2 billion — an FCF yield of about 10.2% — and the company returned capital aggressively in fiscal 2026, repurchasing $700.0 million of stock and paying $349.7 million in dividends while still growing cash to $1.469 billion. Operating cash flow of $1.806 billion comfortably funded $156.3 million of capex and $350.7 million of acquisitions, demonstrating that ResMed funds growth internally with room to spare; the 1.24% dividend yield with a payout ratio of just 22.95% leaves ample capacity for further increases.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.5B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
58.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RMD Overvalued?
Because ResMed is solidly profitable (net income of $383.4 million in the latest quarter and $1.523 billion for fiscal 2026), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 18.67x trailing earnings and 19.08x forward earnings — a notably narrow gap that implies the market expects only modest earnings growth from here, and the PEG ratio of 2.00 suggests the multiple is not cheap relative to the growth rate. The trailing PE of 18.67x against a forward PE of 19.08x is unusual in that the forward multiple is slightly higher, reflecting the fact that the trailing figure is flattered by a strong fiscal 2026 and that consensus EPS of $15.61 embeds a more normalized growth trajectory.
Relative to the broader medical instruments and supplies sector, ResMed screens as a value proposition rather than a premium asset. Its 18.67x trailing PE and 4.99x price-to-sales compare favorably to the sector's typical mid-20s to low-30s earnings multiples, and the 12.80x EV/EBITDA is modest for a franchise with 61% gross margins and 23% ROE. The discount appears to reflect lingering skepticism about GLP-1 disruption and Philips' competitive re-entry rather than any deterioration in fundamentals — a gap that is arguably unjustified given ResMed's superior margins, fortress balance sheet, and 10%+ free cash flow yield, though the PEG of 2.00 and price-to-book of 4.28 show the stock is not statistically cheap on growth-adjusted or asset-based measures.
Historically, ResMed's valuation has compressed dramatically. Its PE ratio stood at 47.1x in Q1 fiscal 2022 and 39.4x in Q4 fiscal 2022, versus 18.67x today — a roughly 60% de-rating from peak levels — while price-to-sales has fallen from over 42x in late 2021 to 4.99x now. Even within the past year, the PE has drifted from 28.75x in Q1 fiscal 2026 to 18.67x in Q4, placing the stock near the bottom of its own multi-year valuation band. That compression can be read two ways: as a value opportunity if the GLP-1 fear proves overblown and growth re-accelerates, or as the market rationally repricing a maturing growth story — the resolution likely hinges on whether high-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion persist.
PE
18.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 18x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are modest but not absent. The most visible is the sequential margin compression in Q4 FY2026, where gross margin fell to 58.84% from 62.25% in Q3 and operating margin dropped to 30.66% from 34.92%, a roughly 430bp operating decline that, if sustained, would erode the 33.76% TTM operating margin that underpins the valuation. Revenue is concentrated in the sleep franchise — Sleep and Respiratory delivered $1.256 billion of Q4's $1.464 billion (86%), with Residential Care Software at just $166.9 million — so any deceleration in mask or flow generator demand hits the core directly. Growth is also required to justify the multiple: at 8.58% YoY revenue growth and a PEG of 2.00, a slip into mid-single digits would leave the 19.08x forward PE looking rich. Balance-sheet risk is minimal (D/E 0.125, current ratio 3.10), so the financial risk is earnings-quality and margin durability rather than solvency.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation and disruption. The stock's beta of 0.75 means it is roughly 25% less volatile than the market, but the recent 13.75% monthly move is unusually large for this name — a sign of re-rating that could reverse if sentiment shifts. The GLP-1 narrative remains the dominant external threat, and the 83% spread between the $175 low and $320 high analyst targets quantifies how violently opinions diverge on it. Philips' re-entry into the US flow generator market threatens the duopoly pricing power that supports 61% gross margins, and the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) alongside Citigroup's July downgrade to Neutral and Neutral/Hold stances from Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies show the sell-side is split. Sector rotation is a secondary risk: with the stock still down 4.67% over the trailing year versus the S&P 500's +13.13%, it has already demonstrated sensitivity to growth-stock de-rating.
The worst-case scenario is a GLP-1 data readout or Philips share-gain disclosure that forces the market to conclude sleep apnea device demand is structurally impaired, triggering both estimate cuts and multiple compression simultaneously. In that chain, revenue growth decelerates toward low-single digits, the 61% gross margin compresses as pricing power fades, and the stock re-rates toward the $175 analyst low — a decline of roughly 30.8% from the current $252.86. The 52-week low of $180.27 sits about 28.7% below current levels and the maximum drawdown over the period was -35.46%, so a realistic adverse outcome is a -29% to -35% move, taking the stock back to the $175-$180 zone. An investor buying today could lose roughly a third of capital in that scenario, which is why position sizing matters despite the low beta.

