SSR Mining
SSRM
$26.58
-1.52%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company focused on gold and silver production in the Americas, operating key assets including the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina. As a mid-tier gold producer with a diversified asset base, it distinguishes itself through a strong balance sheet and operational flexibility. The current investor narrative centers on the transformative $1.5 billion sale of its troubled Copler mine in Turkey, which de-risks the business, provides a massive cash war chest for growth and shareholder returns, and refocuses the company on its core Americas portfolio. This strategic shift, combined with a rising gold price and a massive share buyback program, has driven significant stock appreciation and analyst optimism.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$26.58
Related headlines
SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.40 and implied upside of +55.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.40
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+55.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $48
Analyst target range
SSRM is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating of 1.4 on a 1-5 scale). The average price target is $41.40, implying approximately 54.1% upside from the current price of $26.86. The distribution shows no Hold or Sell ratings, indicating unanimous bullish sentiment among analysts. This strong consensus is supported by recent upgrades, including RBC Capital upgrading from Sector Perform to Outperform in June 2026 and CIBC upgrading from Neutral to Outperform in March 2026. The target price range spans from $39.00 (low) to $48.00 (high), representing upside of 45.2% to 78.7%. The high target of $48.00 likely assumes successful execution of the Copler sale proceeds deployment, higher gold prices, and potential production growth from the Americas assets. The low target of $39.00 still reflects significant upside and may price in some execution risk or lower gold prices. The relatively narrow spread between low and high (23% difference) suggests analysts have relatively high conviction in the stock's upside. The strong buy consensus and recent upgrades underscore the market's positive view on SSR Mining's strategic transformation and financial strength.
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Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
SSRM presents a compelling bull case centered on its transformative Copler sale, which de-risks the business, provides a massive cash war chest, and refocuses the company on its profitable Americas assets. The stock trades at a significant discount to peers on both trailing and forward P/E, with strong free cash flow generation and unanimous analyst bullishness implying 54% upside. However, bears point to the Q1 net loss, recent price weakness, and execution risk on deploying the Copler proceeds. The single most important tension is whether management can successfully deploy the $1.5 billion in cash to drive sustainable earnings growth, as this will determine if the current valuation discount is warranted or if the stock re-rates higher. Overall, the bull case currently has stronger evidence given the strategic clarity, strong balance sheet, and supportive gold price environment.
Bullish
- Strategic Copler Sale De-risks Business: The $1.5 billion cash sale of the troubled Copler mine eliminates a major operational and reputational risk, providing a massive cash war chest for growth investments and shareholder returns. This transformative move refocuses the company on its core Americas assets, which have a stronger track record.
- Massive Upside to Analyst Targets: With a consensus average price target of $41.40, the stock offers 54.1% upside from the current price of $26.86. The high target of $48.00 implies 78.7% upside, and all 5 analysts rate it a Strong Buy, reflecting unanimous bullish sentiment.
- Compelling Valuation Discount to Peers: The trailing P/E of 11.2x and forward P/E of 5.8x represent a 25-44% and 61-71% discount, respectively, to the gold mining industry average of ~15-20x. This suggests the market is pricing in conservative expectations, offering significant upside if the company delivers on its growth plans.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $482.3 million provides a free cash flow yield of approximately 10.9% based on the current market cap. This robust cash generation supports the company's ability to fund share buybacks, growth investments, and strengthen the balance sheet.
Bearish
- Q1 2026 Net Loss Raises Concerns: Despite strong revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $106.5 million in Q1 2026, compared to net income of $58.8 million in Q1 2025. This was driven by impairment charges or one-time items related to the Copler sale, but it highlights earnings volatility and the impact of non-recurring charges.
- Recent Price Pullback Signals Weak Momentum: The stock is down 5.3% over the past month and 12.1% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 6.0% and 15.6%, respectively. This short-term weakness could indicate profit-taking or waning investor enthusiasm after the sharp rally.
- Dependence on Gold Price Remains a Key Risk: As a gold producer, SSRM's revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to gold price fluctuations. While gold prices have been supportive, any sustained decline could compress margins and reduce free cash flow, undermining the bull case.
- Execution Risk on Copler Proceeds Deployment: The $1.5 billion cash infusion creates high expectations for value-accretive deployment through acquisitions, buybacks, or dividends. Poor execution, such as overpaying for assets or failing to generate adequate returns, could disappoint investors and lead to stock underperformance.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSRM is in a strong long-term uptrend, with the stock up 113.9% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.5% gain. The current price of $26.86 sits at 60.5% of its 52-week range ($11.87–$36.52), indicating it is closer to the high end but not overextended, suggesting room for further upside if momentum continues. This positioning reflects a recovery from prior lows and sustained investor confidence in the company's strategic pivot. Short-term momentum has weakened, with the stock down 5.3% over the past month and 12.1% over the past three months, diverging from the strong one-year trend. This pullback could represent a temporary consolidation or profit-taking after the sharp rally, rather than a trend reversal, especially given the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 (relative strength of -6.0% over one month and -15.6% over three months). The recent decline may offer a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the long-term story. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $11.87, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $36.52. A breakout above $36.52 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs, while a breakdown below $11.87 would negate the bullish case. With a beta of 0.88, SSRM is slightly less volatile than the overall market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors seeking gold exposure.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
+111.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.2% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -18.5% | +5.1% |
| 6m | +18.0% | +13.8% |
| 1y | +111.5% | +22.2% |
| ytd | +23.5% | +13.1% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
SSRM's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $581.8 million representing an 83.8% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gold prices and the inclusion of the Copler mine (prior to its sale). However, the company reported a net loss of $106.5 million in Q1 2026, compared to net income of $58.8 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to impairment charges or one-time items related to the Copler sale. Excluding these, the underlying business remains profitable, as evidenced by the trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $482.3 million. The revenue growth is supported by strong gold production, with gold segment revenue of $400.1 million, and silver contributing $159.5 million. Profitability metrics show a mixed picture: gross margin improved to 61.3% in Q1 2026 from 47.2% in Q1 2025, reflecting higher gold prices and operational efficiencies. However, the net loss resulted in a negative net margin of -18.3% for the quarter. On a trailing basis, net margin is 24.3%, indicating strong profitability when excluding one-time items. Operating margin stood at 28.9% for the trailing twelve months, which is healthy for a mining company. The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.12 and a current ratio of 2.08, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow generation is strong at $482.3 million (TTM), providing a free cash flow yield of approximately 10.9% based on the current market cap. The company has no dividend, but the $1.5 billion cash infusion from the Copler sale further strengthens its financial position, enabling share buybacks and growth investments.
Quarterly Revenue
$581778000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+83.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482307514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive on a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM net income of approximately $181.5 million from Q4 2025 plus other quarters), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.2x, while the forward P/E is 5.8x, based on estimated EPS of $2.64. The significant gap between trailing and forward P/E implies the market expects substantial earnings growth, likely driven by the Copler sale proceeds and higher gold prices. Compared to the industry average (gold mining sector typically trades at ~15-20x P/E), SSRM's trailing P/E of 11.2x represents a discount of approximately 25-44%, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to peers. However, the forward P/E of 5.8x is even more attractive, implying a 61-71% discount to the industry average, which may reflect skepticism about earnings sustainability or the one-time nature of recent gains. Historically, SSRM's P/E has ranged from negative (during loss periods) to over 60x. The current trailing P/E of 11.2x is near the lower end of its historical range over the past five years, indicating that the stock is not overvalued by its own standards. This low multiple, combined with strong free cash flow and a strategic catalyst, suggests the market may be pricing in conservative expectations, offering upside potential if the company delivers on its growth plans.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: SSRM's Q1 2026 net loss of $106.5 million, despite 83.8% revenue growth, highlights earnings volatility from one-time charges related to the Copler sale. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 is low, but the reliance on free cash flow ($482.3 million TTM) to fund operations and growth means any disruption in production or gold prices could pressure liquidity. The current ratio of 2.08 indicates ample short-term liquidity, but the negative net margin in Q1 (-18.3%) underscores the impact of non-recurring items on reported profitability. Investors should monitor the sustainability of gross margins (61.3% in Q1 2026) and the trajectory of operating margins (28.9% TTM) to ensure operational efficiency is maintained.
Market & Competitive Risks: SSRM's beta of 0.88 suggests slightly lower volatility than the market, but as a gold miner, it is highly sensitive to gold price movements. A sustained decline in gold prices could compress margins and reduce free cash flow, undermining the bull case. The stock's trailing P/E of 11.2x is a discount to the industry average of 15-20x, but this could widen if the company fails to execute on its growth plans. Competitive risks include operational challenges at the Marigold, Seabee, and Puna mines, as well as potential cost inflation in the mining sector. Recent news highlights the Copler sale as a positive catalyst, but geopolitical risks in Turkey (now eliminated) and Argentina remain relevant for the Puna mine.
Worst-Case Scenario: The most damaging scenario would involve a sharp decline in gold prices (e.g., below $1,500/oz), coupled with operational setbacks at key mines (e.g., production disruptions or cost overruns) and poor deployment of the Copler proceeds (e.g., value-destructive acquisitions). This could lead to a loss of investor confidence and a re-rating lower. From the current price of $26.86, the realistic downside is to the 52-week low of $11.87, representing a -55.8% decline. The analyst low target of $39.00 implies a 45.2% upside, but in a bear case, the stock could fall to $15-20, reflecting a 25-44% loss. The historical max drawdown of -31.28% suggests a potential decline of about $8.40 from current levels.
