Steel Dynamics
STLD
$222.06
-2.93%
Steel Dynamics Inc is a domestic steel producer and metal recycler in the United States, offering a diverse product portfolio including hot rolled sheet, plate, painted sheet, and cold rolled sheet. As one of the largest steel producers in the U.S., it distinguishes itself through vertically integrated operations spanning steelmaking, metals recycling, and steel fabrication, which provide cost advantages and operational flexibility. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to capitalize on protective tariffs and strong demand, as evidenced by record shipments and pricing power that drove a recent stock spike, while debates persist about sustainability amid potential economic headwinds and sector divergence.…
STLD
Steel Dynamics
$222.06
Related headlines
STLD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Steel Dynamics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $288.68 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$288.68
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$178 - $289
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish (based on ratings: Wells Fargo Overweight, Jefferies Buy, Citigroup Buy, JP Morgan Neutral, UBS Neutral). The average EPS estimate is $13.19, with a low of $11.24 and high of $14.28. The average revenue estimate is $22.85 billion. The implied upside from the current price of $220.39 to the average target (not explicitly provided, but can be derived from EPS and P/E) is approximately +18% if using forward P/E of 11.93x and EPS of $13.19, giving a target of $157.30, which is below the current price. However, using the trailing P/E of 21.13x and estimated EPS, the target would be $278.70, implying +26% upside. The consensus is moderately bullish, but the wide range of estimates suggests uncertainty. The high EPS estimate of $14.28 implies a target of $170.30 (using forward P/E) or $301.70 (using trailing P/E), reflecting optimism about margin expansion and strong demand. The low estimate of $11.24 implies a target of $134.10 (forward P/E) or $237.50 (trailing P/E), pricing in potential margin compression or demand weakness. Recent ratings show a mix of upgrades and downgrades: Morgan Stanley downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight in January 2026, while UBS downgraded from Buy to Neutral in November 2025, indicating some caution. The spread between high and low EPS estimates is 27%, signaling moderate uncertainty.
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STLD Technical Analysis
Steel Dynamics is in a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +64.4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1%. The stock is currently trading at $220.39, which is 76.3% of its 52-week range ($119.89 low to $288.74 high), indicating it has pulled back from the highs but remains well above the midpoint. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend, offering a potential entry point if support holds, but also reflecting profit-taking after a strong run. Short-term momentum has turned sharply negative, with a 1-month price change of -18.8% and a 3-month change of +22.3%, showing a deceleration from the longer-term trend. The divergence between the 1-month decline and the 1-year gain signals a significant pullback that could be a mean reversion or the start of a deeper correction, especially given the stock's beta of 1.542, which amplifies market moves. The 52-week high of $288.74 acts as key resistance, while the 52-week low of $119.89 provides a distant support level. A breakout above $288.74 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below the recent low near $220 could test the $200 psychological level. With a beta of 1.542, the stock is 54% more volatile than the market, requiring careful risk management.
Beta
1.54
1.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$120-$289
Price range past year
Annual Return
+63.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | STLD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.7% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +16.5% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +31.2% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +63.2% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +26.1% | +10.2% |
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STLD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown a mixed trajectory, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $4.414 billion, up 14% year-over-year from $3.872 billion in Q4 2024, but down from $4.828 billion in Q3 2025. The multi-quarter trend reveals a deceleration from the peak in Q2 2024 ($4.633 billion) and Q1 2024 ($4.694 billion), though the YoY growth in Q4 2025 is encouraging. The steel operations segment generated $6.874 billion in revenue (the largest segment), while metals recycling contributed $2.111 billion and steel fabrication $726 million, indicating that steelmaking is the primary growth driver. The revenue growth is supported by strong pricing and shipments, as highlighted in recent news, but the sequential decline from Q3 to Q4 suggests potential cyclical headwinds. Net income for Q4 2025 was $266 million, with a net margin of 6.0%, down from 8.4% in Q3 2025 and significantly below the 12.4% in Q1 2024. Gross margin compressed to 11.8% in Q4 2025 from 15.7% in Q3 2025 and 20.9% in Q1 2024, indicating margin pressure from rising costs or lower pricing. Operating margin also fell to 7.0% from 10.5% in Q3, reflecting a challenging cost environment. Despite the compression, the company remains profitable, and the trajectory suggests margins may stabilize as cost efficiencies improve. The balance sheet is healthy, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47 and a current ratio of 3.06, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $84 million, positive but down from $557 million in Q3 2025, due to higher capital expenditures of $188 million. ROE stands at 13.2%, and the company generated $273 million in operating cash flow in Q4, sufficient to cover capex and dividends. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47 is moderate, and the interest coverage ratio of 11.5x suggests comfortable debt servicing capacity.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.4B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.00%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
11.83%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$501509000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is STLD Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 21.13x, while the forward P/E is 11.93x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp rebound in earnings, which could be driven by improved margins or higher volumes. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically for steel companies P/E ranges from 8-15x), Steel Dynamics' trailing P/E of 21.13x appears elevated, but the forward P/E of 11.93x is more in line with peers. The premium on trailing earnings may reflect the company's strong market position and recent revenue growth, but the forward multiple suggests a normalization. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 2.5x (in 2022) to 23.2x (in Q4 2025), with the current 21.13x near the top of its historical band. This indicates that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future earnings, and any disappointment could lead to multiple contraction. The P/B ratio of 2.80x is also above the historical average of around 2.0x, further suggesting elevated valuation.
PE
21.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
