US Foods
USFD
$109.62
+1.07%
US Foods Holding Corp. is a leading domestic foodservice distributor, providing over 350,000 food and nonfood products to approximately 250,000 customer locations, including independent and chain restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and educational institutions. With fiscal 2025 sales of $39 billion and a 10% share of the highly fragmented foodservice distribution industry, the company is the second-largest player in the U.S., competing directly with Sysco and Performance Food Group. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain volume growth and margin expansion in a challenging inflationary environment, while also executing on its strategic initiatives such as the expansion of its Chef'Store cash-and-carry format and investments in technology and supply chain efficiency. Recent stock performance has been robust, with shares up over 40% in the past year, reflecting optimism about the company's earnings trajectory and its ability to gain market share.…
USFD
US Foods
$109.62
Investment Opinion: Should I buy USFD Today?
Based on the analysis, USFD is rated a Buy. The thesis is that the company's market share gains and margin expansion will drive EPS growth of ~29% over the next year, making the forward PE of 19.85x attractive. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with an average target of $115.875, implying 5.7% upside, and the PEG ratio of 0.56x suggests undervaluation relative to growth.
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USFD 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by the attractive forward valuation and positive analyst sentiment. However, the confidence is medium due to the high leverage and modest revenue growth. The key risk is whether the company can deliver the expected EPS growth; if it does, the stock could re-rate higher. Upgrades would occur if revenue growth accelerates above 4% or if the forward PE drops below 18x. Downgrades would occur if the company misses earnings or if the macro environment deteriorates significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on US Foods's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $115.88 and implied upside of +5.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$115.88
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$61 - $130
Analyst target range
US Foods is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.625 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $115.875, implying an upside of approximately 5.7% from the current price of $109.62. The distribution of ratings is bullish, with no Sell ratings and only a few Neutral/Underperform ratings, indicating that the sell-side is largely optimistic about the company's prospects. The high target of $130 suggests that some analysts see significant upside potential, likely driven by expectations of continued margin expansion and market share gains, while the low target of $61 implies a downside of over 44%, which may reflect concerns about a potential recession or competitive pressures. The wide range between the low and high targets (a spread of $69) indicates high uncertainty about the company's future performance, but the recent ratings actions have been predominantly positive, with firms like Citigroup and BTIG reiterating Buy ratings in May 2026, and no downgrades in the past six months, suggesting that sentiment remains constructive.
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Bulls vs Bears: USFD Investment Factors
USFD presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The bull case is anchored by strong earnings growth expectations (PEG 0.56), a Buy consensus, and market share gains in a fragmented industry. The bear case highlights high leverage, modest revenue growth, and a valuation premium to peers. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the forward PE discount and positive analyst sentiment, but the key tension is whether the company can deliver the ~29% EPS growth implied by the forward multiple. If margin expansion and volume growth continue, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the premium valuation could compress, leading to significant downside.
Bullish
- Strong earnings growth expected: The forward PE of 19.85x versus trailing PE of 25.63x implies the market expects ~29% EPS growth over the next year. This is supported by a PEG ratio of 0.56x, indicating the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate.
- Analyst consensus is Buy: With 16 analysts, the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' (mean score 1.625), and the average price target of $115.875 implies ~5.7% upside. No sell ratings and recent reiterations from Citigroup and BTIG in May 2026 reflect positive sentiment.
- Market share gains in fragmented industry: USFD holds a 10% share of the highly fragmented foodservice distribution market, with revenue growing 2.77% YoY in Q1 2026. The company is gaining share from smaller competitors, driving case volume growth.
- Strong stock momentum and relative strength: The stock is up 41.66% over the past year and 14.12% in the last month, outperforming the S&P 500 by 21.18% over the past year. This momentum reflects investor confidence in the company's execution.
Bearish
- High leverage and debt burden: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33x is elevated, and interest expense of $75 million in Q1 2026 consumes a significant portion of operating income ($216 million). This limits financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to rising rates.
- Modest revenue growth: Revenue growth of only 2.77% YoY in Q1 2026 is below inflation and may not justify the premium valuation. The company's mature industry and low-single-digit guidance suggest limited top-line acceleration.
- Valuation premium to industry: Trailing PE of 25.63x is 16.5% above the industry average of ~22x. If growth fails to materialize, the stock could de-rate, especially given the forward PE discount is based on optimistic EPS estimates.
- High short interest and volatility: Short ratio of 4.31 days to cover indicates bearish sentiment. The stock's beta of 0.818 suggests it is less volatile than the market, but the 21.09% max drawdown in the past year shows it can decline sharply.
USFD Technical Analysis
USFD is in a strong uptrend, with the stock price of $109.62 as of August 21, 2026, representing a 41.66% gain over the past year. The current price is near the top of its 52-week range, sitting at approximately 98.4% of the range between the low of $69.875 and the high of $111.42. This positioning near the highs indicates strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the stock may be vulnerable to profit-taking or a short-term pullback if the broader market weakens. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, with a relative strength of 21.18% over the past year, confirming its leadership within the consumer staples sector.
Beta
0.82
0.82x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$70-$111
Price range past year
Annual Return
+41.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | USFD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.1% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +36.2% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +13.3% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +41.7% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +46.9% | +12.3% |
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USFD Fundamental Analysis
US Foods reported revenue of $9.61 billion in Q1 2026 (quarter ending March 28, 2026), representing a 2.77% year-over-year increase from $9.351 billion in Q1 2025. While growth is modest, it is consistent with the company's mature industry, and the company has been able to maintain positive momentum despite a challenging operating environment. The trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $39.7 billion, and the company's revenue segments show a diversified mix, with Product One (likely center-of-plate items) contributing $3.408 billion, Product Two at $1.664 billion, and Product Three at $1.64 billion in the most recent quarter. The company's growth is being driven by case volume increases and market share gains, partially offset by modest food inflation, and management has guided to continued low-single-digit revenue growth for the full year.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
17.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$848000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is USFD Overvalued?
Given that US Foods is profitable, the primary valuation metric is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 25.63x, while the forward PE is 19.85x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 29% over the next year. This gap between trailing and forward multiples is significant and suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial acceleration in profitability, likely driven by margin expansion and cost efficiencies. The PEG ratio of 0.56x further supports the view that the stock is attractively valued relative to its growth rate, as a PEG below 1 typically indicates undervaluation. Compared to the industry average PE of approximately 22x (based on the consumer defensive sector), USFD trades at a 16.5% premium on a trailing basis, but on a forward basis, it is actually at a discount, which may reflect the market's skepticism about the sustainability of its growth or a potential mispricing opportunity.
PE
25.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~45x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant. USFD carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33x, and interest expense of $75 million in Q1 2026 represents 35% of operating income ($216 million). This leverage amplifies the impact of any earnings shortfall and could strain cash flow if rates rise. The company's net margin is thin at 1.71%, leaving little room for error; a small increase in costs or a decline in volume could disproportionately hurt profits. Free cash flow is positive at $848 million TTM, but it is modest relative to debt obligations, and the current ratio of 1.16x indicates limited liquidity buffer.
