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Yum! Brands

YUM

$157.67

+1.94%

Yum! Brands, Inc. is a global restaurant powerhouse operating in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry, with a portfolio of iconic brands including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company is a dominant global franchisor, with over 97% of its more than 63,000 restaurants operated by franchisees, creating a capital-light, royalty-focused business model. The current investor narrative centers on the strategic reshaping of its portfolio, highlighted by the recent sale of Pizza Hut to private equity, which is seen as establishing a new valuation benchmark and allowing management to focus on its higher-growth brands like Taco Bell and KFC, while navigating a consumer environment that is trading down to value-oriented dining options.…

Should I buy YUM
Bobby Quantitative Model
Jun 16, 2026

YUM

Yum! Brands

$157.67

+1.94%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Yum! Brands, Inc. is a global restaurant powerhouse operating in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry, with a portfolio of iconic brands including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company is a dominant global franchisor, with over 97% of its more than 63,000 restaurants operated by franchisees, creating a capital-light, royalty-focused business model. The current investor narrative centers on the strategic reshaping of its portfolio, highlighted by the recent sale of Pizza Hut to private equity, which is seen as establishing a new valuation benchmark and allowing management to focus on its higher-growth brands like Taco Bell and KFC, while navigating a consumer environment that is trading down to value-oriented dining options.
Should I buy YUM

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YUM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $157.67
Average Target $157.67
High Target $181.32049999999998
Low Target $134.0195

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Yum! Brands's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $204.97 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$204.97

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$126 - $205

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage for YUM is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating this large-cap stock may have less concentrated institutional research focus than peers. The consensus sentiment appears mixed but leans slightly positive, with recent actions including an upgrade from Gordon Haskett (Hold to Buy) in January 2026 and maintained Overweight/Outperform ratings from firms like JP Morgan, Evercore ISI, and Barclays, balanced by Neutral or Equal Weight stances from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but using the estimated EPS average of $11.16 and the forward P/E of 19.76x implies a price target of approximately $220.50, which would suggest significant upside of about 49% from the current price of $148.08; however, this calculation is highly sensitive to the forward P/E assumption and may not reflect the true consensus. The target range, derived from EPS estimates, shows a low of $10.34 and a high of $11.50, indicating a relatively tight spread of about 11%, which suggests analysts have a reasonable degree of consensus on near-term earnings potential. The high target likely assumes successful execution of the brand portfolio strategy and sustained margin strength, while the low target may factor in consumer spending pressures and integration risks from recent divestitures.

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YUM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a clear downtrend, having retreated significantly from its recent highs. Over the past year, the stock has gained a modest 2.83%, but this masks a sharp recent correction, with the price currently at $148.08, which is just 12.6% above its 52-week low of $137.33 and 12.6% below its 52-week high of $169.39. This positioning near the lower end of its annual range suggests the stock is in a phase of significant weakness, potentially offering a value entry point but also reflecting substantial selling pressure and negative momentum. Recent momentum has been decisively negative, with the stock down 7.45% over the past three months and 3.78% over the past month, sharply underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 12.6% and 4.6% over the same periods, respectively. This pronounced underperformance, evidenced by a 3-month relative strength of -20.05, indicates a significant loss of investor confidence and a bearish divergence from the broader market's strength. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $137.33, while resistance sits at the recent high of $169.39. A decisive break below support could signal a continuation of the downtrend, while a recovery above the $160 level would be needed to suggest a reversal. The stock's beta of 0.604 indicates it is approximately 40% less volatile than the broader market, which, while providing some downside cushion during market stress, also suggests it may lag during strong market rallies.

Beta

0.57

0.57x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$137-$169

Price range past year

Annual Return

+11.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodYUM ReturnS&P 500
1m+5.1%+1.5%
3m-0.9%+13.4%
6m+1.9%+10.9%
1y+11.1%+24.5%
ytd+4.8%+10.0%

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YUM Fundamental Analysis

Yum Brands exhibits steady but modest revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.514 billion representing a 6.44% year-over-year increase. The growth is primarily driven by its largest segments, with KFC Global generating $1.041 billion and Taco Bell Global contributing $997 million in the latest quarter, while Pizza Hut and Habit Burger posted $303 million and $174 million, respectively. This indicates a core business that is expanding, albeit at a measured pace, with Taco Bell likely being the primary growth engine. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $535 million and a robust net margin of 21.3%. Gross margins are healthy at 46.2% (Q4 2025: 44.5%), and operating margins are strong at 30.8%, reflecting the efficiency of its heavily franchised model. The trend shows profitability is stable, with net income growing from $423 million in Q4 2024 to $535 million in Q4 2025, demonstrating effective cost management and scale benefits. The balance sheet shows a strong cash generation profile, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.641 billion, supporting shareholder returns. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is negative at -1.63, which is an accounting artifact stemming from significant share buybacks that have reduced shareholder equity, a common feature for mature franchisors. The current ratio of 1.35 indicates sufficient short-term liquidity. The company's return on assets is a solid 23.3%, though the return on equity is negative at -21.3%, again distorted by the negative equity base, but the substantial free cash flow underscores the underlying financial strength of the franchise model.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.06%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.44%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

KFC Global Division
Pizza Hut Global Division
Taco Bell Global Division
The Habit Burger Grill Global Division

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Valuation Analysis: Is YUM Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. Yum trades at a trailing P/E of 26.98x and a forward P/E of 19.76x based on estimated EPS of $11.16. The forward P/E's discount to the trailing multiple suggests the market is pricing in earnings growth, with expectations for a 36.5% increase in EPS from the trailing figure. Compared to sector averages, Yum's trailing P/E of 26.98x is at a premium; for context, the S&P 500 Restaurants industry average trailing P/E is typically in the low 20s. This premium of approximately 35% is likely justified by the company's stable, franchise-heavy cash flows, strong margins, and global scale, though it also leaves little room for execution missteps. Historically, the stock's own P/E has fluctuated, with recent quarterly data showing a range from approximately 19.65x to over 43.5x over the past few years. The current trailing P/E of 26.98x sits above the lower end of this historical range but well below the peaks, suggesting the valuation is in a moderate zone—not excessively cheap, but also not at peak optimism, potentially reflecting concerns about near-term growth and the portfolio transition.

PE

27.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 17x~44x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

19.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Related headlines

Bullish
Yum China Buys Pizza Hut Brand: A Strategic Masterstroke?
Bullish
YUM Sells Pizza Hut: A $2.3 Billion Strategic Shift
Bullish
YUM's Pizza Hut Sale: A $4 Billion Catalyst for QSR Stocks
Neutral
Domino's Pizza Stock Tumbles: Berkshire Doubles Down on DPZ
Bullish
McDonald's $120B Real Estate Fuels 50th Dividend Hike

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