AutoZone
AZO
$3046.44
-0.51%
AutoZone is the largest US-based retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories, operating over 7,600 stores and serving both do-it-yourself (69% of domestic sales) and commercial do-it-for-me customers. As a dominant player in the specialty retail industry, it benefits from scale, brand recognition, and a vast distribution network. The current investor narrative centers on slowing same-store sales growth, international expansion challenges, and competitive pressures from O'Reilly's potential acquisition of Napa distribution, which have driven the stock down sharply in recent months.…
AZO
AutoZone
$3046.44
Related headlines
AZO 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AutoZone's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $3969.38 and implied upside of +30.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$3969.38
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$3200 - $4800
Analyst target range
AutoZone is covered by 24 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: recent ratings include 8 Buy/Overweight, 2 Neutral, and no Sell. The average price target is $3,969.38, implying 33.6% upside from the current price of $2,970.57. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly stated but appears to be a Buy based on the distribution. The target range spans from a low of $3,200 to a high of $4,800, representing 7.7% to 61.6% upside. The high target of $4,800 likely assumes a return to historical margins and successful international expansion, while the low target of $3,200 may reflect concerns about competitive pressure and slower growth. The wide spread ($1,600) indicates high uncertainty among analysts. Recent ratings from major firms (TD Cowen, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan) have maintained Buy/Overweight ratings, suggesting confidence in the long-term story despite near-term headwinds.
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AZO Technical Analysis
AutoZone is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down 19.6% over the past year and currently trading at 67.7% of its 52-week range (current price $2,970.57 vs. 52-week low $2,928.11 and high $4,388.11). The price sits near the lower end of the range, suggesting bearish momentum and potential value opportunity, but also risk of further downside if support fails. The 1-year price change of -19.6% contrasts with the S&P 500's +20.9% gain, indicating significant relative weakness. Short-term momentum is negative but showing signs of stabilization: the 1-month change is -4.3% and the 3-month change is -14.9%, both underperforming the S&P 500's +0.6% and +6.3% respectively. The 1-month decline is less severe than the 3-month drop, hinting at a possible deceleration in selling pressure, but the stock remains in a clear downtrend. The 52-week low at $2,928.11 provides immediate support; a break below could trigger further declines toward the $2,900 level. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $4,388.11, far above current levels. Beta is 0.34, meaning the stock is significantly less volatile than the market, which may offer some downside protection but also limits upside participation in rallies.
Beta
0.34
0.34x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2928-$4388
Price range past year
Annual Return
-16.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AZO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.4% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -14.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -13.5% | +7.5% |
| 1y | -16.5% | +18.4% |
| ytd | -7.8% | +9.0% |
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AZO Fundamental Analysis
Revenue grew 8.4% year-over-year in the most recent quarter (Q3 2026) to $4.84 billion, but this marks a deceleration from prior quarters (e.g., Q4 2025 revenue was $6.24 billion, though seasonally higher). The trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $19.9 billion, with the commercial segment (31% of sales) driving growth while DIY remains steady. The slight revenue miss in the latest quarter has raised concerns about slowing momentum. Net income for Q3 2026 was $641 million, with a net margin of 13.3%, down from 15.2% in Q4 2025. Gross margin was 52.2%, relatively stable, but operating margin compressed to 19.1% from 20.9% a year ago, reflecting higher SG&A costs. The company remains profitable with a trailing PE of 28.2x, but margin pressure is a watchpoint. AutoZone has a negative equity balance due to significant share buybacks and debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.6 and a current ratio of 0.88, indicating reliance on debt financing. However, free cash flow generation is strong at $1.63 billion TTM, and operating cash flow of $802 million in Q3 2026 comfortably covers capex of $346 million. The negative ROE (-73.2%) is a function of negative equity, not operational weakness; ROA of 11.4% is healthy.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.8B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
52.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AZO Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 28.2x, while the forward PE is 16.9x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. The large gap between trailing and forward PE suggests optimism about a rebound, but also reflects the recent earnings decline. Compared to the specialty retail industry average PE of approximately 22x, AutoZone trades at a 28% premium on a trailing basis, but a 23% discount on a forward basis. The premium on trailing earnings may be justified by its market leadership and strong cash flows, but the forward discount indicates the market is pricing in a recovery. Historically, AutoZone's trailing PE has ranged from 10.5x to 34.1x over the past five years. The current 28.2x is above the midpoint of that range, suggesting the stock is not cheap historically. However, the forward PE of 16.9x is near the lower end of the historical range, implying that if earnings materialize, the stock could be undervalued.
PE
28.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 11x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
