O'Reilly Auto Parts
ORLY
$86.97
-1.11%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories, serving both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional customers across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Founded in 1957, the company operates nearly 6,600 stores and generated nearly $18 billion in sales in fiscal 2025, positioning it as one of the largest players in the automotive aftermarket industry. The current investor narrative centers on O'Reilly's robust sales growth and market share gains, which are being weighed against short-term margin concerns and the potential acquisition of Genuine Parts' Napa distribution business—a move that could reshape the competitive landscape. Additionally, the stock has experienced a notable decline over the past year, prompting debates about whether this is a breakdown or a buying opportunity.…
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto Parts
$86.97
Related headlines
ORLY 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on O'Reilly Auto Parts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $107.80 and implied upside of +23.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$107.80
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$89 - $120
Analyst target range
O'Reilly is covered by 25 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.54 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $107.80, implying a 21.8% upside from the current price of $88.50. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like DA Davidson, Mizuho, and Citigroup all maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. The target price range is $89.00 to $120.00, with the low end near the current price, suggesting limited downside risk, and the high end implying a 35.6% upside. The wide spread of $31.00 indicates significant uncertainty among analysts about the company's future performance. The high target likely assumes continued market share gains and successful integration of potential acquisitions, while the low target may reflect concerns about margin compression or increased competition. Recent ratings have been stable, with no downgrades in the past six months, indicating that analysts remain confident in the company's long-term prospects despite the recent stock price decline.
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ORLY Technical Analysis
O'Reilly's stock is currently in a clear downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -14.9% and a 6-month change of -5.7%. The current price of $88.50 sits at 25.6% of its 52-week range (between $82.59 and $108.72), indicating it is trading near the lower end of its yearly range. This positioning suggests the stock is closer to its lows, which could represent a value opportunity for contrarian investors, but also carries the risk of a falling knife if the downtrend persists. The stock's beta of 0.519 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also means it may underperform in strong market rallies.
Beta
0.52
0.52x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$83-$109
Price range past year
Annual Return
-15.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ORLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | -1.6% | +1.1% |
| 6m | -8.1% | +13.8% |
| 1y | -15.7% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -3.7% | +12.2% |
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ORLY Fundamental Analysis
O'Reilly's revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $4.56 billion, a 10.2% year-over-year increase. This growth is consistent with the prior year's trend, where quarterly revenues ranged from $4.14 billion to $4.71 billion, indicating a steady upward trajectory. The company's dual-market strategy, serving both DIY and professional customers, has helped drive this growth, with the professional segment contributing 49% of sales. However, the growth rate has slightly decelerated from the 13.7% YoY growth seen in Q3 2025, suggesting a potential normalization in demand. The company's profitability is solid, with a gross margin of 51.5% and an operating margin of 19.5% in the latest quarter, both of which are stable compared to recent quarters. Net income for Q1 2026 was $604 million, a 12.2% increase from the same period last year, reflecting strong cost control and operational efficiency. O'Reilly's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -11.1, which is negative due to share buybacks, and a current ratio of 0.77, indicating potential liquidity concerns. However, the company generated $1.03 billion in operating cash flow and $788 million in free cash flow in Q1 2026, demonstrating its ability to fund operations and growth internally. The negative ROE of -3.3% is a result of the company's aggressive share repurchase program, which has reduced equity, but this is not necessarily a negative signal given the company's strong cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+10.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
51.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ORLY Overvalued?
Given O'Reilly's positive net income, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 30.6x, while the forward PE is 24.2x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 26% over the next year. This forward discount suggests that analysts anticipate continued strong performance, which is supported by the company's consistent revenue growth and margin stability. Compared to the specialty retail industry average PE of 22x, O'Reilly trades at a 39% premium, reflecting its superior growth and profitability. The company's PS ratio of 4.37x is also above the industry average of 1.5x, further highlighting the premium valuation. Historically, O'Reilly's PE has ranged from 16.8x to 38.1x over the past five years, with the current trailing PE of 30.6x near the higher end of that range. This suggests the stock is trading at a premium to its own historical average, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future growth. The PEG ratio of 3.07x, however, suggests that the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth rate, as a PEG above 1 typically indicates that the stock is expensive relative to its earnings growth.
PE
30.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 17x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
