Nexstar Media Group
NXST
$184.80
-2.52%
Nexstar Media Group is the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, with over 200 stations across 116 markets reaching 220 million people, and also owns NewsNation, a 75% stake in The CW, and a 31% stake in Food Network and Cooking Channel. As a dominant player in the broadcasting industry, Nexstar leverages its scale to generate significant advertising and distribution revenue. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic transformation through the proposed merger with Tegna, which would expand its station count to over 259 and reach 80% of the U.S. population, alongside its efforts to diversify revenue streams through digital and cable network assets. Recent attention has been on the company's financial performance, including a strong Q1 2026 earnings report, and its ability to manage high debt levels while pursuing growth opportunities.…
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
$184.80
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NXST Today?
Based on the synthesis, NXST is rated a Buy. The stock trades at a forward PE of 8.13x, which is a significant discount to the market and its own historical average, while analysts have a Strong Buy consensus with an average target of $246.75, implying 30% upside. The thesis is that the company's earnings will rebound strongly, driven by the Tegna merger synergies and a recovery in advertising revenue, making the current valuation attractive.
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NXST 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish due to the compelling valuation and positive growth trajectory, but confidence is medium given the high leverage and execution risks. The stock's forward PE of 8.13x implies the market is pricing in a substantial earnings rebound, which is supported by analyst estimates. However, the success of the Tegna merger is critical; if it fails, the stock could fall to the bear case. I would upgrade to high confidence if the merger closes and advertising revenue stabilizes, and downgrade to bearish if regulatory hurdles emerge or revenue growth decelerates below 5%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nexstar Media Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $246.75 and implied upside of +33.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$246.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+33.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$205 - $290
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $205.00 to a high of $290.00, representing a wide spread of $85, or 41.5% of the low target, indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target of $290 assumes successful integration of Tegna, substantial cost synergies, and a recovery in advertising revenue, while the low target of $205 likely prices in continued margin compression, high interest expenses, and potential regulatory hurdles. The recent upgrade from Citigroup and consistent Buy ratings from multiple firms suggest analysts are increasingly confident in the company's growth prospects, but the wide range highlights the risks associated with the merger and the broadcasting industry's structural challenges.
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Bulls vs Bears: NXST Investment Factors
Nexstar presents a classic value-versus-value-trap debate. The bull case rests on a deeply discounted forward PE of 8.1x, strong Q1 revenue growth of 13.13%, and the transformative potential of the Tegna merger, which analysts believe justifies a 30% upside to the average target. The bear case highlights a high debt load (D/E 3.32x), a recent quarterly loss, and persistent underperformance versus the market, suggesting the discount may be warranted. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls due to the strong analyst consensus and the potential for earnings to rebound sharply, but the outcome hinges on the successful execution of the Tegna merger and the stability of advertising revenue. The single most important tension is whether the market's low forward PE reflects a genuine bargain or a structural decline in broadcasting that will prevent earnings from reaching consensus estimates.
Bullish
- Strong Q1 2026 revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.13% YoY to $1.396B, driven by distribution and advertising gains. This marks a rebound from the prior year's flat performance and suggests the core business is expanding.
- Forward PE of 8.1x is deeply discounted: With a forward PE of 8.13x versus trailing 66.79x, the market expects a massive earnings rebound. If the company delivers on consensus EPS of $22.21, the stock trades at a significant discount to its growth potential.
- Analyst consensus is Strong Buy: All 8 analysts rate NXST a Buy, with an average target of $246.75, implying 30% upside from the current price of $189.57. The high target of $290 suggests even greater potential if the Tegna merger succeeds.
- Tegna merger could unlock synergies: The proposed merger with Tegna would expand Nexstar's reach to 80% of the US population, creating significant cost synergies and advertising scale. This is a key catalyst that could drive earnings well above current estimates.
Bearish
- High debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32: Nexstar's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x is elevated, reflecting its heavy debt load from past acquisitions. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows weaken.
- Stock underperformed S&P 500 by 30.7%: Over the past year, NXST fell 10.29% while the S&P 500 gained 20.37%, a relative underperformance of 30.66%. This persistent weakness signals investor skepticism about the company's growth prospects.
- Q4 2025 net loss of $166M: The company reported a net loss of $166M in Q4 2025, driven by a $470M impairment charge. This highlights the risk of asset write-downs and earnings volatility in the broadcasting industry.
- Cyclical advertising revenue: Advertising revenue of $548M in Q1 2026 is sensitive to economic cycles and faces structural decline as viewers shift to streaming. This creates long-term uncertainty for the core business.
NXST Technical Analysis
Nexstar's stock has been in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -10.29%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +20.37% gain. The current price of $189.57 sits at approximately 74.5% of its 52-week range (between $154.47 low and $254.30 high), indicating the stock is closer to its lows than highs, suggesting a bearish sentiment and potential value opportunity or falling knife scenario. The stock has declined 18.0% over the past six months, reflecting persistent selling pressure despite occasional bounces.
Beta
0.90
0.90x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$154-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
-10.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NXST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.6% | +4.0% |
| 3m | -2.0% | +5.3% |
| 6m | -22.4% | +12.6% |
| 1y | -10.4% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -11.5% | +13.3% |
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NXST Fundamental Analysis
Nexstar's revenue trajectory shows a mixed picture: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.396 billion grew 13.13% year-over-year, but this follows a volatile pattern with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.289 billion and Q3 2025 revenue of $1.198 billion, indicating uneven growth. The company's revenue is heavily reliant on distribution services ($837 million) and advertising ($548 million), with the latter being cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions. The 13.13% YoY growth in Q1 2026 is a positive sign, but the multi-quarter trend shows deceleration from the 2024 peak when Q4 2024 revenue was $1.487 billion, suggesting the company is not consistently growing.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
47.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$708000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NXST Overvalued?
Given that Nexstar's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (Q1 2026 net income of $164 million, though Q4 2025 was a loss), the primary valuation metric selected is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 66.79x, while the forward PE is 8.13x, a massive gap that implies the market expects a significant earnings rebound, likely due to the Tegna merger synergies and cost savings. This wide spread suggests the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which may be optimistic given the company's high debt load and cyclical advertising revenue.
PE
66.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Nexstar carries a substantial debt burden, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x and interest expenses of $120M in Q1 2026 alone. While the company generates positive free cash flow of $708M TTM, this is partially offset by high leverage, making it vulnerable to rising interest rates or a downturn in advertising revenue. The Q4 2025 net loss of $166M, driven by a $470M impairment charge, underscores the risk of asset write-downs that can erode equity and spook investors. Additionally, the payout ratio of 155% indicates that dividends are not fully covered by earnings, which could lead to a dividend cut if profitability does not improve as expected.
FAQ
The key risks for NXST are: 1) Financial risk from high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x and interest expenses of $120M per quarter, which could strain cash flows if rates rise. 2) Competitive risk from cord-cutting and streaming, which is eroding the traditional TV advertising base; advertising revenue is cyclical and could decline further. 3) Regulatory risk from the Tegna merger, which could be blocked, eliminating a major upside catalyst. 4) Company-specific risk of asset write-downs, as seen in Q4 2025 with a $470M impairment charge. The most severe risk is a combination of merger failure and an advertising downturn, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $154.47, a 18.5% downside from the current price.
The 12-month forecast for NXST is bullish, with a base case target of $246.75 (30% upside) and a bull case target of $290 (53% upside). The bear case target is $154.47 (18.5% downside). The base case has a 45% probability and assumes the Tegna merger closes and earnings meet consensus. The bull case (35% probability) assumes strong merger synergies and a rebound in advertising. The bear case (20% probability) assumes merger failure and continued revenue decline. The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by the successful integration of Tegna and stable advertising revenue. Investors should monitor merger progress and quarterly earnings for confirmation.
NXST appears undervalued based on forward earnings, with a forward PE of 8.13x versus the market's 20x. The trailing PE of 66.79x is misleading due to one-time charges, but the forward multiple suggests the market expects a massive earnings rebound. Compared to its own history, the stock trades at a discount to its 5-year average forward PE of around 10x. The PS ratio of 1.24x is also below the sector median of 1.5x, further indicating undervaluation. However, the market is pricing in significant risk, as evidenced by the high debt load and regulatory uncertainty. If the company fails to meet earnings expectations, the valuation could be justified, but currently, the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential.
NXST is a good buy for investors who believe the market is overly pessimistic about the broadcasting industry and that the Tegna merger will succeed. The stock trades at a forward PE of 8.13x, which is a significant discount to the S&P 500's forward PE of around 20x, and analysts see 30% upside to the average target of $246.75. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x and the risk of merger failure are major concerns. If you are comfortable with these risks and have a 12-month horizon, NXST offers an attractive risk/reward profile. For more conservative investors, it may be prudent to wait for clearer signs of merger approval and revenue stability.
NXST is more suitable for long-term investment, given its cyclical nature and the multi-year potential of the Tegna merger. The stock has a beta of 0.895, indicating lower volatility than the market, but it has experienced significant drawdowns (max drawdown -39.01%). The dividend yield of 2.74% provides some income, but the payout ratio of 155% suggests the dividend may be at risk. For short-term traders, the stock could offer opportunities around earnings and merger news, but the high uncertainty makes it risky. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the merger synergies to materialize and the advertising cycle to turn. Long-term investors should focus on the company's ability to generate free cash flow and reduce debt, which could lead to multiple expansion.
