Coeur Mining
CDE
$14.63
+0.34%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a precious metals producer operating gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its portfolio anchored by the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington operations spanning the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and the U.S. contributing the largest share of revenue. The company is a mid-tier, high-beta precious metals miner rather than a diversified major — its equity is effectively a leveraged play on gold and silver prices, with roughly 68% of segment revenue derived from gold ($695.0M) and 32% from silver ($321.6M). The current investor narrative is dominated by a tug-of-war between a dramatically improved operating profile — revenue up 125.9% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $1.09B, EBITDA of $482.1M, and a balance sheet transformed by a major acquisition and subsequent deleveraging — and a sharp share-price decline of roughly 24% over the past month as precious metals prices softened on dollar strength and rate concerns. Commentary around the stock oscillates between bulls pointing to proven reserves reportedly worth ~49% more than the entire market capitalization and bears warning that the elevated valuation leaves little cushion if gold and silver continue to correct.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$14.63
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating: Buy (speculative, metals-dependent). The core thesis is that Coeur is priced as if its $1.31 forward EPS is unreachable — a 7.3x forward PE against a 19.4x trailing multiple — while 9 of 11 analysts rate it Buy with a $22.59 average target implying +68.5% upside from $13.41, and even the $17.00 low target sits +26.8% above the current quote. The bet is not on management execution, which has already delivered 125.9% YoY revenue growth to $1.086B in Q2 2026, but on gold and silver prices stabilizing rather than continuing to correct.
Supporting evidence is unusually strong for a stock down 24.07% in a month: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.086B versus $480.7M a year earlier, a 49.4% gross margin and 36.3% operating margin, TTM free cash flow of $1.156B implying a ~10.2% FCF yield on the $11.33B market cap, debt-to-equity of just 0.110 with a 2.00 current ratio and $1.056B of cash, and a 17.7% ROE. Q2 operating cash flow of $513.2M against only $125.7M of capex funded $110.4M of buybacks and $20.6M of dividends while cash still grew. The valuation is the crux: 5.47x PS, 11.5x EV/EBITDA, and 3.42x P/B are premiums to the 10-15x PE and 2-4x sales gold-miner norms, but the 7.3x forward PE and 0.038 PEG argue the premium is already being paid down by growth.
Three risks could invalidate the thesis: (1) a sustained gold correction — roughly 68% of segment revenue ($695.0M) is gold-linked — that forces the single-point $1.31 consensus EPS to be cut, instantly erasing the forward discount; (2) continued margin compression, with gross margin already down from 55.1% in Q3 2025 to 49.4% in Q2 2026 and net income falling sequentially to $121.9M from Q1's $246.8M despite higher revenue; and (3) momentum liquidation below the $12.71 52-week low, with the stock at just 4.7% of its 52-week range and trailing SPY by -34.21 points YTD. The rating would upgrade to a higher-conviction Buy if the stock reclaims the $15.00-$15.50 shelf while gold holds, and would downgrade to Hold if Q3 gross margin falls below 45% or consensus EPS is revised down. Verdict: undervalued on forward earnings, but only conditionally — this is a leveraged metals call, not a defensive value stock.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking case is asymmetric: at $13.41 the market is pricing Coeur at 7.3x forward earnings while the sell-side sees $22.59 fair value, and the balance sheet (0.110 debt-to-equity, $1.056B cash, 2.00 current ratio) means solvency is not the risk — metals prices are. The base case (50%) assumes gold and silver stabilize, letting the stock recover toward the $17.00-$22.59 range as the forward discount partially closes; the bull case (25%) requires a renewed metals rally to reach $22.59-$30.00, and the bear case (25%) prices a break of the $12.71 low toward $10 if estimates reset. Confidence is medium rather than high because the single-point $1.31 EPS estimate offers no dispersion buffer, gross margin has already compressed from 55.1% to 49.4%, and the tape shows unrelenting selling with the stock trailing SPY by -22.08 points in one month. I would upgrade to high confidence if Q3 results confirm the $1.31 run-rate and the stock reclaims the $15.00-$15.50 shelf, and downgrade to neutral if gold breaks lower or gross margin falls below 45%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $22.59 and implied upside of +54.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$22.59
11 analysts
Implied Upside
+54.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
11
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $30
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust for a mid-cap miner, with 11 analysts publishing ratings and a distribution of 9 Buy, 2 Hold, and 0 Sell, yielding a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.73 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price of $22.59 implies roughly +68.5% upside from the current $13.41 — an unusually wide gap that reflects how far the share price has fallen below where the Street models fair value, and it signals that analysts are leaning decidedly bullish even as the tape screams caution. The consensus is clearly constructive, and the estimated EPS of $1.31 (identical at low, average, and high) suggests unusually high conviction in the forward earnings outlook, though the single-point estimate also hints at limited dispersion in modeling assumptions. The target range of $17.00 to $30.00 is very wide — the low target alone implies +26.8% upside and the high target +123.7% — which is characteristic of a high-beta commodity producer where outcomes hinge on gold and silver prices rather than company-specific execution. The high target of $30.00 likely assumes a sustained precious metals rally, full realization of acquisition synergies, and multiple expansion toward peak-cycle levels, while the low target of $17.00 appears to price in flat-to-lower metals prices and some margin normalization yet still sits well above the current quote. Institutional ratings show a mildly positive drift — Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy from Hold in April 2026, and Scotiabank, RBC, BMO, TD, and Roth have all maintained Buy/Outperform/Sector Outperform stances — with no downgrades in the visible record, suggesting the sell-side views the recent collapse as a dislocation rather than a fundamental deterioration; the wide spread, however, is a genuine warning that conviction on timing and magnitude is low.
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Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: the tape shows a structural downtrend with the stock at 4.7% of its 52-week range, a -51.75% max drawdown, and -22 to -34 point relative-strength deficits versus SPY across every horizon, while gross margins compress and the shares trade at a premium to gold-miner norms. The bull case rests on fundamentals that are genuinely exceptional — 125.9% revenue growth, a 10.2% FCF yield, 0.110 debt-to-equity, and a 7.3x forward PE — plus a 9-to-2 Buy/Hold analyst split with a $22.59 average target implying +68.5% upside. The single most important tension is whether the $1.31 forward EPS is achievable: if metals prices stabilize, the forward discount is real and the stock is deeply undervalued; if gold and silver keep falling, estimates reset and the discount evaporates. The unusually wide $17-$30 target range and single-point EPS estimate signal that even the sell-side has low conviction on timing and magnitude, so this is a high-beta metals call rather than a company-specific execution story.
Bullish
- Forward PE of 7.3x is deeply discounted: Trailing PE of 19.4x collapses to a forward PE of 7.3x, a 62% compression implying the market expects earnings to roughly 2.7x over the next twelve months. Consensus EPS of $1.31 versus trailing EPS of $0.05 reflects the full-year impact of the acquisition and elevated metals prices, so if estimates hold the stock is priced at a steep discount to its own earnings power.
- Revenue up 125.9% YoY to $1.09B: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.086B grew 125.9% from $480.7M in Q2 2025, with a sequential ramp from $674.8M (Q4 2025) to $856.2M (Q1 2026) to $1.086B. This multi-quarter acceleration reflects both higher realized metals prices and expanded production, and it demonstrates substantial operating leverage if gold and silver hold current levels.
- FCF yield near 10% with low leverage: TTM free cash flow of $1.156B against an $11.33B market cap implies roughly a 10.2% FCF yield, while debt-to-equity of just 0.110 and a current ratio of 2.00 signal a fortress balance sheet. Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $513.2M against only $125.7M of capex produced $387.5M of free cash flow, funding $110.4M of buybacks and $20.6M of dividends while cash grew to $1.056B.
- Analyst consensus buy with 68.5% upside: Eleven analysts split 9 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell for a recommendation mean of 1.73, and the $22.59 average target implies +68.5% upside from $13.41. Even the low target of $17.00 implies +26.8% upside, and there are no downgrades in the visible record — Canaccord upgraded to Buy in April 2026 and Scotiabank, RBC, BMO, TD, and Roth all maintain Buy/Outperform stances.
Bearish
- Severe downtrend near 52-week low: At $13.41 the stock sits at just 4.7% of its 52-week range ($12.71 low, $27.77 high) and has fallen 24.07% in one month, 23.06% in three months, and 25.99% in six months. The near-identical 1-month and 3-month declines indicate steady, unrelenting selling rather than a single shock, and a decisive break below $12.71 would likely trigger momentum-driven liquidation toward new lows.
- Relative strength collapse vs. S&P 500: CDE trails SPY by -22.08 percentage points over one month and -34.21 points year-to-date, confirming the decline is company- and sector-specific precious-metals beta rather than market-driven. With a beta of 1.44, the stock is roughly 44% more volatile than the S&P 500, so continued metals weakness would amplify losses well beyond broad market moves.
- Premium multiples versus gold-miner norms: A 19.4x trailing PE, 5.47x PS, 11.5x EV/EBITDA, and 3.42x P/B all sit above typical gold-miner ranges of 10-15x PE and 2-4x sales. The premium is arguably justified by 125.9% revenue growth and a 36.3% operating margin, but it magnifies downside if growth normalizes or metals prices correct — exactly the dynamic cited in March 2026 news explaining the stock's drops.
- Margin compression despite revenue growth: Gross margin has slipped from 55.1% in Q3 2025 and 53.7% in Q4 2025 to 49.4% in Q2 2026, and net income fell sequentially to $121.9M from Q1's $246.8M despite higher revenue. Cost of revenue jumped to $549.7M and the tax charge rose to $93.2M, suggesting per-unit cost inflation or a less favorable production mix even as the top line scales.
CDE Technical Analysis
Coeur Mining is in a clear intermediate-term downtrend despite a modestly positive 1-year return of -11.43%, with the stock at $13.41 trading at just 4.7% of its 52-week range (52-week low $12.71, high $27.77) — a positioning that signals persistent selling pressure rather than a healthy pullback, and one that has erased more than half of peak value given a max drawdown of -51.75%. The stock has surrendered roughly half its 52-week high, and sitting within pennies of the annual low means the path of least resistance remains lower until a base is established. Short-term momentum is decisively negative and accelerating: the 1-month change of -24.07% and 3-month change of -23.06% are nearly identical, indicating a steady, unrelenting decline rather than a single shock, while the 6-month change of -25.99% and YTD change of -23.59% confirm the weakness is structural across every horizon. Critically, this is a severe relative-strength breakdown — CDE's 1-month return trails SPY by -22.08 percentage points and its YTD return trails by -34.21 points — meaning the decline is company/sector-specific (precious metals beta) rather than market-driven, and the near-flat prior session (+0.68% to $13.41 from $13.32) offers only the faintest hint of stabilization. Key levels are unambiguous: support sits at the $12.71 52-week low, and a decisive break below would likely trigger momentum-driven liquidation toward new lows, while resistance is layered at the $15.00-$15.50 shelf (the October consolidation zone) and then the $17.50-$18.00 area where the stock repeatedly failed in September; reclaiming the 52-week high of $27.77 is a distant, low-probability scenario absent a major metals rally. With a beta of 1.44, CDE is roughly 44% more volatile than the S&P 500, so position sizing should be materially smaller than a market-weight allocation, and the elevated short ratio of 1.56 days-to-cover plus heavy volume of 50.2M shares suggests both active short interest and capitulation-style turnover that can amplify moves in either direction.
Beta
1.44
1.44x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+3.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.8% | -5.9% |
| 3m | -15.9% | -5.2% |
| 6m | -21.2% | -0.6% |
| 1y | +3.1% | +8.2% |
| ytd | -16.6% | +7.5% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
The revenue trajectory is exceptional and clearly accelerating: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.086B grew 125.9% year-over-year versus $480.7M in Q2 2025, and the sequential progression from $856.2M in Q1 2026 and $674.8M in Q4 2025 confirms a steep multi-quarter ramp driven by both higher realized metals prices and expanded production (likely reflecting the major acquisition referenced in news flow). Gold is the dominant revenue engine at $695.0M versus silver at $321.6M, so the investment case is disproportionately levered to gold pricing; the growth trend implies substantial operating leverage if metals hold, but also means revenue is highly cyclical and could reverse quickly — a risk already visible in the stock's decline. Profitability has inflected powerfully: Q2 2026 net income was $121.9M with a 49.4% gross margin and 36.3% operating margin, though net income actually fell sequentially from Q1's $246.8M (28.8% net margin) despite higher revenue, reflecting a jump in cost of revenue to $549.7M and a heavier $93.2M tax charge. Gross margin has compressed modestly from 53.7% in Q4 2025 and 55.1% in Q3 2025 to 49.4%, a trend worth monitoring as it suggests per-unit cost inflation or a less favorable production mix even as top-line scales. The balance sheet and cash generation are the strongest part of the story: debt-to-equity is just 0.110, the current ratio is a healthy 2.00, and TTM free cash flow of $1.156B against a $11.33B market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 10.2% — a genuinely attractive figure for a miner. Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $513.2M against capex of only $125.7M produced $387.5M of free cash flow, and the company returned capital via $110.4M of buybacks and $20.6M of dividends while still growing cash to $1.056B, with ROE of 17.7% and ROA of 7.1% confirming the business is now self-funding and no longer dependent on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+125.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Because Coeur is solidly profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $121.9M, EPS of $0.12), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: the trailing PE of 19.4x versus a forward PE of just 7.3x is a dramatic 62% compression, implying the market expects earnings to roughly 2.7x over the next twelve months — consistent with consensus EPS of $1.31 versus trailing EPS of $0.05, a gap that reflects the full-year impact of the acquisition and elevated metals prices. That enormous trailing-to-forward gap is the crux of the debate: if the forward estimate is achieved, the stock is cheap; if metals prices weaken and estimates are cut, the apparent discount evaporates. On the sector comparison, CDE's 19.4x trailing PE and 5.47x PS sit well above typical gold-miner norms (majors often trade in the 10-15x PE and 2-4x sales range), and its 11.5x EV/EBITDA and 3.42x P/B represent a clear premium — arguably justified by the 125.9% revenue growth, 36.3% operating margin, and 17.7% ROE, which are far above what most mid-tier producers deliver, but the premium also magnifies downside if growth normalizes. Historically, CDE's own PE has ranged from negative territory during loss-making periods (2023-2024) to the low-30s, with recent quarterly readings of 34x (Q2 2026), 12.0x (Q1 2026), and 13.5x (Q4 2025); at 19.4x the stock sits in the middle of its own band rather than at an extreme, while its PS of 5.47x is actually below the 15.5x-21.5x readings seen in mid-2025, suggesting the de-rating has already compressed sales-based multiples meaningfully even as earnings multiples remain moderate.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
16.4x
Industry PE ~16.4x*
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on extreme revenue cyclicality and margin erosion. Roughly 68% of segment revenue ($695.0M) is gold-linked and 32% ($321.6M) silver-linked, so a sustained metals correction would hit both top line and the 49.4% gross margin, which has already compressed from 55.1% in Q3 2025. Q2 2026 net income of $121.9M fell sequentially from Q1's $246.8M despite revenue rising to $1.086B, as cost of revenue climbed to $549.7M and the tax charge reached $93.2M — evidence that per-unit costs are inflating even at peak volumes. The forward valuation depends entirely on consensus EPS of $1.31 versus trailing EPS of $0.05, a 26x gap that leaves no cushion if estimates are cut; the single-point low/average/high estimate of $1.31 confirms there is no dispersion buffer. Positively, debt-to-equity of 0.110, a current ratio of 2.00, and $1.056B of cash mean solvency is not the risk — earnings volatility is. Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and precious-metals beta. At 19.4x trailing PE, 5.47x PS, 11.5x EV/EBITDA, and 3.42x P/B, CDE trades at a clear premium to typical gold-miner norms of 10-15x PE and 2-4x sales, a premium that only holds if 125.9% growth persists. With a beta of 1.44, the stock is roughly 44% more volatile than the S&P 500, and its -22.08 point one-month and -34.21 point YTD relative-strength deficits versus SPY show the market is already de-rating the sector rather than the company. March 2026 news explicitly tied declines to a strengthening dollar, rising rate concerns, and inflation worries pressuring gold and silver — macro forces outside management's control. The elevated short ratio of 1.56 days-to-cover and heavy 50.2M-share volume add two-way amplification risk. The worst-case scenario is a continued gold and silver correction that forces consensus EPS of $1.31 to be cut toward the trailing $0.05 run-rate, collapsing the forward PE discount and triggering momentum liquidation below the $12.71 52-week low. From the current $13.41, a retest of the 52-week low implies roughly -5%, but a break below it — with no technical support until new lows — could extend toward the -51.75% max drawdown magnitude, implying a potential loss of 30-50% from current levels in a full metals bear market. The analyst low target of $17.00 is above the current price and therefore offers no downside anchor; the realistic bear-case floor is the 52-week low of $12.71, and the true tail risk is a re-rating toward the 10-15x PE band on cut estimates, which would put fair value materially below $10.
FAQ
The most severe risk is commodity concentration: roughly 68% of segment revenue ($695.0M) is gold-linked and 32% ($321.6M) silver-linked, so a sustained metals correction would hit both the top line and the 49.4% gross margin, which has already fallen from 55.1% in Q3 2025. Second is estimate risk — the consensus EPS of $1.31 is identical at low, average, and high, leaving no dispersion buffer, and a cut would instantly erase the 7.3x forward discount that underpins the bull case. Third is margin and cost inflation: cost of revenue rose to $549.7M and the tax charge to $93.2M in Q2 2026, and net income fell sequentially to $121.9M from Q1's $246.8M despite higher revenue. Fourth is momentum and volatility: with a beta of 1.44, a -51.75% max drawdown, and -34.21 points of YTD relative weakness versus SPY, a break below the $12.71 low could trigger liquidation with no technical support beneath.
The scenario framework is 50% base, 25% bull, and 25% bear. The base case targets $17.00-$22.59, assuming gold and silver chop sideways with a modest upward bias, the $1.31 consensus EPS is delivered, gross margin stabilizes near 49%, and the extreme forward discount partially closes toward the $22.59 average target. The bull case targets $22.59-$30.00 and requires a renewed metals rally plus multiple expansion toward the 10-15x peer band, aided by buybacks ($110.4M in Q2) and acquisition synergies. The bear case targets $10.00-$12.71 if metals extend their decline, estimates reset toward the trailing $0.05 run-rate, and the $12.71 low breaks. The base case is most likely, and its key assumption is simply that gold and silver hold near current levels rather than continuing to correct.
The answer depends entirely on which multiple you trust. On trailing figures CDE looks expensive: 19.4x PE, 5.47x PS, 11.5x EV/EBITDA, and 3.42x P/B all sit above typical gold-miner norms of 10-15x PE and 2-4x sales. On forward figures it looks cheap: 7.3x forward PE and a PEG of 0.038 imply the market expects earnings to roughly 2.7x, consistent with consensus EPS of $1.31 versus trailing EPS of $0.05. Notably, the 5.47x PS is well below the 15.5x-21.5x readings seen in mid-2025, so the de-rating has already compressed sales multiples meaningfully. The market is effectively pricing skepticism that the $1.31 estimate is durable — if it is, the stock is deeply undervalued; if metals weaken and estimates reset toward the trailing run-rate, the apparent discount vanishes and the premium multiples reassert themselves.
On a risk/reward basis the setup is asymmetric but conditional. At $13.41 the stock trades at 7.3x forward EPS versus 19.4x trailing, with a $22.59 average analyst target implying +68.5% upside and even the $17.00 low target sitting +26.8% above spot — a rare gap for a company generating $1.156B in TTM free cash flow with debt-to-equity of just 0.110. The downside is equally concrete: the stock is at 4.7% of its 52-week range, has fallen 24.07% in a month, and a break of the $12.71 low could extend losses 30-50% in a full metals bear market. It is a good buy only for investors who want leveraged exposure to gold and silver, can tolerate a beta of 1.44, and size the position accordingly; it is a poor buy for anyone who needs the thesis to work on company execution alone, because the outcome hinges on metals prices rather than management.
CDE is best suited to a medium-to-long holding period of at least 12-18 months, because the thesis requires a full metals cycle turn and confirmation of the $1.31 forward EPS across several quarters — the next two to three earnings reports are the real test. Short-term trading is treacherous: beta of 1.44, a -51.75% max drawdown, and a 1-month decline of 24.07% mean daily volatility can overwhelm any fundamental view, and the stock's 4.7% position in its 52-week range offers no technical floor above $12.71. There is no income support (0% dividend yield, 0% payout ratio), so total return depends entirely on price appreciation. A reasonable minimum holding period is 12 months, sized well below a market-weight allocation, with a pre-defined exit if the $12.71 low breaks or if Q3 gross margin falls below 45%.