FedEx
FDX
$325.08
-0.29%
FedEx Corporation is a global leader in integrated freight and logistics, providing express package delivery, ground shipping, freight forwarding, and related services through its Federal Express, FedEx Office, and FedEx Logistics segments. Following the June 2026 spinoff of FedEx Freight, the company has streamlined its operations, with the core package delivery business now accounting for over 95% of revenue, positioning it as a more focused pure-play on global e-commerce and B2B supply chains. The current investor narrative centers on the post-spinoff value-unlocking potential, including a significant cash infusion and improved margin profile, while also grappling with competitive threats from Amazon's entry into third-party logistics and strategic moves like the potential $9 billion acquisition of Polish parcel firm InPost to expand its European network.…
FDX
FedEx
$325.08
Related headlines
FDX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FedEx's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $356.37 and implied upside of +9.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$356.37
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+9.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$160 - $479
Analyst target range
FedEx is covered by 26 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 1.82 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $356.37, implying an upside of 9.6% from the current price of $325.08. The distribution of ratings is bullish, with 10 recent actions from major firms like Truist, BofA, UBS, and Citigroup all maintaining Buy ratings, while only Morgan Stanley has an Underweight. The target price range is wide, from a low of $160 to a high of $479, indicating significant uncertainty about the stock's future. The high target of $479 assumes successful execution of the post-spinoff strategy, including margin expansion and potential acquisitions like InPost, which could drive earnings growth. The low target of $160 suggests concerns about competitive threats from Amazon's logistics expansion and potential economic downturn. The wide spread reflects the divergent views on FedEx's ability to navigate these challenges, but the overall bullish consensus and recent upgrades suggest analysts are optimistic about the company's prospects.
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Bulls vs Bears: FDX Investment Factors
FedEx presents a compelling bull case with accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, and a valuation discount to peers, supported by strong free cash flow and the post-spinoff focus. However, the bear case highlights significant competitive threats from Amazon, high leverage, and a valuation near historical highs, which could limit upside. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental momentum and analyst optimism, but the key tension is whether FedEx can sustain its growth and margin expansion in the face of Amazon's logistics ambitions and macro volatility. The resolution of this competitive dynamic will likely determine the stock's trajectory over the next 12 months.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 FY2026 revenue grew 12.5% YoY to $25.01B, the highest quarterly revenue in the data, with growth accelerating from 3.0% in Q1 to 8.1% in Q3. This momentum suggests strong demand for FedEx's core package delivery services post-spinoff.
- Expanding Margins and Profitability: Operating margin expanded to 8.4% in Q4 from 6.7% in Q3, while net margin rose to 6.4% from 4.4%. This operational leverage indicates cost management and pricing power are improving as revenue scales.
- Undervalued Relative to Peers: Trailing PE of 18.25x is 17% below the industry average of 22x, and PS ratio of 0.85x is below the industry's 1.2x. This suggests the market is not fully pricing in FedEx's growth and margin potential.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: FedEx generated $5.12B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, with Q4 operating cash flow of $3.27B up from $1.99B in Q3. This cash supports dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments like the potential InPost acquisition.
Bearish
- Amazon's Logistics Threat: Amazon's entry into third-party logistics, with a $1.3 trillion TAM, poses a structural threat to legacy carriers. This competitive pressure could erode FedEx's market share and pricing power over time.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity of 1.36 is relatively high, indicating significant leverage. While manageable given cash flow, it increases financial risk, especially if economic conditions deteriorate or interest rates remain elevated.
- Valuation Near Historical High: Trailing PE of 18.25x is near the upper end of its historical range (6.3x to 21.1x). This suggests the market is already pricing in optimistic expectations, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Recent Price Volatility: Stock is down 16.3% from six months ago and 17.5% over three months, with a max drawdown of -25.64%. This volatility reflects uncertainty around competitive threats and macro conditions, making the stock risky for short-term investors.
FDX Technical Analysis
FedEx shares are currently trading at $325.08, up 44.3% over the past year but down 16.3% from six months ago, reflecting a volatile recovery from a sharp selloff. The stock sits at 94.1% of its 52-week range (between $178.33 low and $345.37 high), indicating it is near the upper end of its annual band, which typically signals strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 52-week low of $178.33 was set in late 2025, and the stock has since rallied significantly, though it remains below its recent high of $345.37 from May 2026.
Beta
1.36
1.36x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$178-$345
Price range past year
Annual Return
+44.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FDX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.3% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -16.3% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +44.3% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +10.9% | +12.3% |
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FDX Fundamental Analysis
FedEx's revenue trajectory has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ending May 31, 2026) reporting $25.01 billion, a 12.5% year-over-year increase, and the highest quarterly revenue in the provided data. This growth is accelerating, as Q3 FY2026 revenue was $24.0 billion (up 8.1% YoY), Q2 FY2026 was $23.47 billion (up 6.8% YoY), and Q1 FY2026 was $22.24 billion (up 3.0% YoY), showing a clear upward trend. The revenue growth is driven by the Federal Express segment, which contributes the bulk of revenue, while the spinoff of FedEx Freight has simplified the business. The company's net income for Q4 FY2026 was $1.60 billion, with a net margin of 6.4%, up from 4.4% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q1, indicating improving profitability. Gross margin for the quarter was 22.7%, up from 21.3% in Q3, reflecting better cost management and pricing power. Operating margin expanded to 8.4% in Q4 from 6.7% in Q3, suggesting operational leverage is kicking in as revenue grows. FedEx's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, which is relatively high but manageable given its strong cash flow generation. The company generated $5.12 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, and its current ratio of 1.48 indicates adequate liquidity. Return on equity is 14.0%, and return on assets is 5.0%, both healthy for the industry. The company's cash flow from operations in Q4 was $3.27 billion, up from $1.99 billion in Q3, demonstrating strong cash generation, which supports its dividend and potential share buybacks.
Quarterly Revenue
$25.0B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FDX Overvalued?
Given FedEx's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 18.25x, while the forward PE is 15.60x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 17% over the next year. This gap suggests investors are pricing in continued margin expansion and revenue growth post-spinoff. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (based on available data), FedEx trades at a 17% discount, which is notable given its strong growth and market position. The stock's PS ratio is 0.85x, which is below the industry average of 1.2x, further highlighting a potential undervaluation. Historically, FedEx's PE has ranged from a low of 6.3x in Q4 FY2025 to a high of 21.1x in Q4 FY2022, with the current 18.25x near the upper end of that range. This suggests the market is currently pricing in optimistic expectations, but the forward PE of 15.6x indicates that earnings growth is expected to justify the valuation. The PEG ratio of 1.95x implies that the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate, though it is not a bargain.
PE
18.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are notable: FedEx's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 indicates substantial leverage, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. The company's net margin of 4.7% (TTM) is relatively thin, leaving limited buffer against cost inflation or pricing pressure. Revenue concentration in the core package delivery segment (over 95% post-spinoff) reduces diversification, making the company more vulnerable to a slowdown in e-commerce or B2B shipping volumes. However, strong free cash flow of $5.12B TTM provides a cushion, and the current ratio of 1.48 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.
